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cashinmattress

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Posts posted by cashinmattress

  1. 3 minutes ago, IMHAL said:

    I guess 50 years makes it far enough away that we can't come after you or jmr if you are wrong. How f'in convenient is that.... which goes a long way to thinking jmr and by extention, yourself are poor snake oil salesmen. 

    Do us a favour and and give those poor fkrs who are going to be destroyed by your idiotic 50yrs of destitution a little more plan and less snake oil.

    Indeed.

    Looking to uber rich folk like JRM et al for political insight is like asking Ronald McDonald for nutritional advice.

  2. 18 hours ago, dougless said:

    Yes, a bit like most of us here.  We will be right one day.

    Once the uncertainty of Brexit or No Brexit wanes off things will go right back to normal.

    If it's immigrants that are needed to sustain things, Westminster will ensure that is the case.

    If it's money, they'll print it.

    If it means relaxing or creating law, they'll legislate it.

    I don't think anyone should be assuming that the UK.gov has run out of options to fuel property speculation.

  3. 3 minutes ago, crouch said:

    I have never denied that there will be short term, and maybe mid term, deleterious effects; in fact I would expect them.

    So you rationalise the leave or hard leave option as it will make you fundamentally poorer for the rest of your life?

    ... because some toff like JRM... or snake oil salesman Nigel... who make their living off of uncertainty...  that they are clearly directly culpable and have massive influences to that effect... says you should do it?

    Nobody voted for the privatisation of the UK's national assets by referenda.

    Did you live through the 90's as an adult?

    If so... do you remember how much power was taken away from the people and trade unions?

    Yet here you are stating that you support further erosion of British society?

    In time you leavers will have to atone.

  4. 3 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

    The UK also has landowners who are quite happy with picking up subsidies just for owning land.

    Don't think that's going to change in any Brexit scenario; however, outside of the EU system they are going to have a whole lot less of the legislative fog of war they've thrived in.

    Expect a lot more secrecy within future UK legislation to keep filling the pockets of these big land owners... and more legislation to thwart or crush dissent from the little people.

  5. The #americanisation of the British food and beverage industry is a problem. Pretty much every town centre or out of town shopping/entertainment complex has the same cookie-cutter set of brands. Even worse, these brands essentially offer more or less the same menu choices, or you can see distinct similarities along cultural lines.

    Ultimately, the food and beverage industry is heavily regulated and has imposed onto it a lot of constraints which make it difficult for small operators to run a profitable enterprise.

    This trend has only gotten worse and won't get any better without some radical redesigning of the social contract between government, business and citizens.

    Further, Britain is decades (or centuries) behind the 'foodie' culture of our European counterparts, and perhaps will never be.

  6. Just now, crouch said:

    What amazes me is that everybody seems to know what position we'll be in in ten years' time under all the options.

    You can budget for today, tomorrow and possibly a year into the future; however, when you make material changes to the dynamics of society and economy that creates all manner of problems.

    There are only a few who can comprehend the mathematics and define the simulations for such future events.

    I'd be more worried about what the people with the money aren't saying.

    Tim Whiterprick says it will be great for his business... what about all the other businesses who are saying nowt?

    How many could have predicted that the abolition of slavery in the UK would result in the 2nd biggest bailout in UK history?

    Or that Suez would greatly hasten the UK's post-empire decline?

    The office of PM has the ear of business and the best that the UK can offer in terms of financial, political and economic strategy and modelling, and vice-versa... Yet, armed with that we're showing up to the table and debating from an obviously disadvantaged position.

    What we can say is that any uncertainty is NOT good for the citizens of the UK... and that's what Brexit is.

  7. 1 hour ago, Uncle_Kenny said:

    Not leaving the EU will be catastrophic for Britain and it's people. It means that British democracy will die. It would mean that the people have no control over their lives.

    Oh my goodness! Like universal credit isn't 'catastrophic' for Britain's poor????

    What about Scotland? Or Northern Ireland? Is it democratic that half of the union clearly didn't want this?

    Or that this is not a 'single' issue? It's single most complicated political and legislative democratic exercise ever taken by the UK government.

    When in history can you cite a specific example of when 'more' democracy resulted in 'catastrophe'?

    And control over our lives? Holy smokes. Lay off the weed and right wing websites.

  8. On 08/12/2018 at 12:50, localhero1983 said:

    I am not going to over elaborate, there is probably several decent sized issues as far as I am concerned that the UK is on the verge of a proper correction in the financial and housing market. 

    These are the three I am focused on

    1. World trade wars

    2. Brexit

    3. financial markets(look at the negative yield curve)

    I was one of those that sniggered in the early days of the property crash predictions, I then believed the property market could have crashed post 2011 ish onwards, but put that prediction off when I saw just how much the governments were willing to do to keep it inflated. I am totally putting everything on an upcoming property crash now, I give it 80% plus chance of it now happening in the short term, No debt now,  decent savings, my business is easily capable of taking 50% plus reductions in profit tomorrow, and even if it does happen I will only come out of this looking stupid.

    Hmmm.

    Focus on the demographics of the UK/US/Western Hemisphere before any of the that stuff... it's a tangible and real threat and will bankrupt social welfare systems everywhere.

    The rest can be dealt with.

  9. 22 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

    Wood Group (WG) down 10% today in what was a rising market.

    The various FID's announced and under-way are a mere shadow of former project work and that is the way it's going to stay.

    Quote

    Key findings of the 2017 Decommissioning Insight include the fact that, from 2017 to 2025, decommissioning is forecast to take place on 349 fields across the four regions of the North Sea, including six fields on the Danish Continental Shelf, 23 fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), 106 fields on the Dutch Continental Shelf and 214 fields on the UKCS.

    Shut down, abandon, make safe, lift and sail away.

    And each DECOM cycle will slim the margins as efficiencies increase.

    Effectively a salvager job and no fancy engineering required, well, certainly not to sustain floors upon floors of contractors filling up time-sheets.

  10. 22 minutes ago, Sheeple Splinter said:

    Bottom line: The EU caused Brexit... simple cause and effect.

    Hmmm. Rather like arguing that being alive causes cancer.

    The UK caused Brexit.

    The UK isn't even past the first hurdle in a 110m dash and we're faltering heavily just leaving the blocks.

    There are a fair amount people alive who've lived through various (embarassing) UK exploits which ended equally as sh1t as Brexit will.

    That is a 100% certainty.

    image001.jpg

  11. Politics aside...

     

    Fundamentally if you look at the 'game' theory of Brexit you'll come to a conclusion that the UK can only lose in this situation. Sure, it will be a zero sum game as per the 'rules', but what we are giving away to receive... not worth it.

    Not worth it at all, despite all the foam mouthed leading Brexiteer hyperbole as they spin misinformation from their ivory towers.

    Our best deal is the one we have.

    Everything else puts us on our back heels.

    Trying to compete globally after tearing up very good FTA's is rather pointless on an island nation with a massive trade imbalance... when you're talking about tangible items; physical things constrained by loss of productivity, value or quality as a function of time and distance.

    Intangibles.... our financial services.. fine. Mouse clicks and CPU cycles.

    The bold bit doesn't matter currently. Just wait, it will.

     

  12. 14 hours ago, CGS said:

    Energy Transition Report here may be of interest

    https://oilandgasuk.co.uk/product/energy-transition-outlook-2018/

    Cost per barrel are still very attractive for most players ( a third lower than 2014 )

    https://oilandgasuk.co.uk/product/energy-transition-outlook-2018/

    -------

    Meanwhile, some investment news in the last 24 hours

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-46506705  ( Shell )

    https://unitedkingdom.chevron.com/news/latest-news/2018/captain-field-development-plan-approval ( Chevron - aimed at attracting new buyers for their Asset sale ? )

    Inclined to say that the North's biggest enemy is inflation 

    Interested to hear if people are seeing an increase in Tender & Recruitment activity or Rates drifting up as skills become sought after ....

    -------

    Won't be long before the ASPC is under 5700 ( 5716 at present with 7% Under Offer). Let's see how the AWPR changes the game now ?

    Fitting bit of market intelligence from the local oil rag..

    https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/188112/collaboration-still-difficult-to-achieve-says-north-sea-survey/

    Quote

    “Effective collaboration should not be forgotten when oil prices rise and the industry gets busier; this will only lead to a reversal of the efficiency gains of the last three years.”

    Not sure that you'll have purchasing officers getting approval from their directors and boards to pay more for less. Efficiency gains? Not really. I wouldn't argue the basin has become more 'efficient'

    https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/national/17291446.oil-firms-urged-to-join-forces-to-revitalise-exploration-in-north-sea/

    Quote

    “We are encouraging prospective operators to look beyond individual opportunities and adopt an area plan approach to their licence applications through collaboration and actively partnering with other companies to unlock this exciting opportunity.”

    Not sure you'll get a major, super-major or PE ventures to 'collaborate' effectively.

  13. 6 minutes ago, Confusion of VIs said:

    Apparently May now has the public backing of enough MPs to win. 

    On the other hand I have just seen a clip of Nadine Doris telling Andrew Neil that all Tory MPs care about is keeping their job and lots are lying through their teeth.

    She didn't paint a good picture of Tory MP's apparently what's in the public interest is irrelevant to them.

     

    I'm sure that Julius Caesar had similar intel prior to becoming a human tea bag.

    The leadership ballot is a secret one. You'll never know who knifed whom in the back.

  14. 10 hours ago, shortbread said:

     So while there is a lot of excitement about fresh new investment, aren't we actually looking at a clearance sale of North Sea assets?

    ...

    There is a reason why the majors are exiting the basin despite the massive reductions in costs and turn around times

    While the North Sea has faced challenges both cyclical and seasonal in nature, it is the first time it is facing a disruptive change. 

    Fresh new investment would entail some big project work and lotsa-lotsa drilling... not just routine maintenance (on the cheap mind!) or the changing of boiler suits & hard hats offshore for ones with a new corporate badge.

    Furthermore, we've committed heavily to big-subsidy projects which will not satisfy the near future energy demands of the UK... lofty (and unrealistic) renewable goals, unrealistic carbon budgets, EV car 'revolution',  and really have failed miserably in our next gen nuclear ambition.

    The UK.gov is really in a state...

    PE players are entering because they are buying up end-of-life assets on the cheap and not having to  (or not planning to) cover the end-of-life liabilities... and the majors are not giving up full stake in productive wells and projects. Just dumping the marginal stuff more or less. There's much more efficient returns on capital elsewhere in the O&G business.

    As to the bold bit... I'd argue they are just doing less... with pretty much the same costs and efficiency... however; I can't say I've seen many big projects under way to draw a conclusive position on that though. The EPC's have been hammered of course. I'm sure some of those still working in that sphere can enlighten on that environment now vs. pre-2014.

  15. 2 minutes ago, jonb2 said:

    The unionists would probably resort to violence though.

    Of course they would.

    Violence would erupt in NI and such other orange order hotspots as Liverpool and Glasgow.

    The Republic isn't interested in the OO's sense of loyalty or their toxic rhetoric.

    It's perhaps that which irritates them (the OO gang) the most. Being ignored.

    Hence their requirement to be obnoxious and traipse thorough 'certain' neighbourhood banging on pot lids and blowing slide whistles.

    In other news:

    Study: No Deal Brexit Could Cost U.K. 750,000 Jobs

    Quote

    U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has embarked on a trip to meet European leaders and EU officials in a bid to save her Brexit deal. After yesterday's turmoil in the House of Commons which saw Tuesday's scheduled vote on the deal postponed, May is meeting German Chancellor Angele Merkel and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to discuss changes to the Irish backstop. The backstop is a position of last resort to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland if the U.K. leaves the EU without a deal. After the vote was postponed in the face of overwhelming opposition, there is growing concern that the U.K. will not pass the necessary legislation to complete its departure, raising the prospect that a no-deal Brexit will occur.

    If that does happen, it could spell disaster for hundreds of thousands of British workers. A new study by the U.K. Trade Policy Observatory and the University of Sussex has forecast that a soft Brexit will also prove costly for British jobs with an estimated 400,000 lost around the country. In a worst-case scenario where the U.K. crashes out of the EU without a deal, the impact could be devastating with up to 750,000 people losing their jobs. That includes nearly 150,000 in London, over 80,000 in the north west of the country and 63,500 in Scotland.

     

    Also

    Chart from Mr Armstrong (source of figures)

    So...

    All this so some people on this board can buy houses 2-for-1 and burn the infidel immigrants.

    And me to keep filling up my bigot-bingo card squares and redeem them for sovereignty.

    How many Brexiteers are still happy with their vote?

     

     

     

     

  16. 2 hours ago, Aidan Ap Word said:

    Probably not best to set the rules differently (higher) for the emerging technology or such rules will likely embed the incumbent technology further.

    Yes, standards are essentially consensus documents.

    All well and that... but I revert to what I wrote earlier.

    Without a standard for EV batteries across all suppliers you'll not have an effective recycling or re-powering program.

    Without said effective programmes you'll have a range of contentious environmental issues.

    So that is why I state that EV's should be paying a lot more for their toys; legacy costs.

    Meanwhile, as both the ICE and EV industries trundle along we're consuming vast quantities of petro-chems... in both cases.

    Hence why I also keep writing that the hype around EV's is just that.

    We're not there yet.

    I'll not convince you, that's pretty obvious. That's not the point either.

    Debate is good.

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