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Everything posted by cashinmattress

  1. Y'all should read the transcript from Sir Ivan Rogers recent speech at UOL. Because it's very frank and objective... and because there is page after page of complete p1sh on this thread. It should be stickied to the top of a new sub-forum for brexit related discussions. https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/
  2. Indeed. Looking to uber rich folk like JRM et al for political insight is like asking Ronald McDonald for nutritional advice.
  3. Once the uncertainty of Brexit or No Brexit wanes off things will go right back to normal. If it's immigrants that are needed to sustain things, Westminster will ensure that is the case. If it's money, they'll print it. If it means relaxing or creating law, they'll legislate it. I don't think anyone should be assuming that the UK.gov has run out of options to fuel property speculation.
  4. So you rationalise the leave or hard leave option as it will make you fundamentally poorer for the rest of your life? ... because some toff like JRM... or snake oil salesman Nigel... who make their living off of uncertainty... that they are clearly directly culpable and have massive influences to that effect... says you should do it? Nobody voted for the privatisation of the UK's national assets by referenda. Did you live through the 90's as an adult? If so... do you remember how much power was taken away from the people and trade unions? Yet here you are stating that you support further erosion of British society? In time you leavers will have to atone.
  5. Westminster is 100% responsible. Oh well. More bailouts aren't going to end our lives and liberties.
  6. Don't think that's going to change in any Brexit scenario; however, outside of the EU system they are going to have a whole lot less of the legislative fog of war they've thrived in. Expect a lot more secrecy within future UK legislation to keep filling the pockets of these big land owners... and more legislation to thwart or crush dissent from the little people.
  7. The #americanisation of the British food and beverage industry is a problem. Pretty much every town centre or out of town shopping/entertainment complex has the same cookie-cutter set of brands. Even worse, these brands essentially offer more or less the same menu choices, or you can see distinct similarities along cultural lines. Ultimately, the food and beverage industry is heavily regulated and has imposed onto it a lot of constraints which make it difficult for small operators to run a profitable enterprise. This trend has only gotten worse and won't get any better without some radical redesigning of the social contract between government, business and citizens. Further, Britain is decades (or centuries) behind the 'foodie' culture of our European counterparts, and perhaps will never be.
  8. You can budget for today, tomorrow and possibly a year into the future; however, when you make material changes to the dynamics of society and economy that creates all manner of problems. There are only a few who can comprehend the mathematics and define the simulations for such future events. I'd be more worried about what the people with the money aren't saying. Tim Whiterprick says it will be great for his business... what about all the other businesses who are saying nowt? How many could have predicted that the abolition of slavery in the UK would result in the 2nd biggest bailout in UK history? Or that Suez would greatly hasten the UK's post-empire decline? The office of PM has the ear of business and the best that the UK can offer in terms of financial, political and economic strategy and modelling, and vice-versa... Yet, armed with that we're showing up to the table and debating from an obviously disadvantaged position. What we can say is that any uncertainty is NOT good for the citizens of the UK... and that's what Brexit is.
  9. Oh my goodness! Like universal credit isn't 'catastrophic' for Britain's poor???? What about Scotland? Or Northern Ireland? Is it democratic that half of the union clearly didn't want this? Or that this is not a 'single' issue? It's single most complicated political and legislative democratic exercise ever taken by the UK government. When in history can you cite a specific example of when 'more' democracy resulted in 'catastrophe'? And control over our lives? Holy smokes. Lay off the weed and right wing websites.
  10. Hmmm. Focus on the demographics of the UK/US/Western Hemisphere before any of the that stuff... it's a tangible and real threat and will bankrupt social welfare systems everywhere. The rest can be dealt with.
  11. The various FID's announced and under-way are a mere shadow of former project work and that is the way it's going to stay. Shut down, abandon, make safe, lift and sail away. And each DECOM cycle will slim the margins as efficiencies increase. Effectively a salvager job and no fancy engineering required, well, certainly not to sustain floors upon floors of contractors filling up time-sheets.
  12. Hmmm. Rather like arguing that being alive causes cancer. The UK caused Brexit. The UK isn't even past the first hurdle in a 110m dash and we're faltering heavily just leaving the blocks. There are a fair amount people alive who've lived through various (embarassing) UK exploits which ended equally as sh1t as Brexit will. That is a 100% certainty.
  13. Politics aside... Fundamentally if you look at the 'game' theory of Brexit you'll come to a conclusion that the UK can only lose in this situation. Sure, it will be a zero sum game as per the 'rules', but what we are giving away to receive... not worth it. Not worth it at all, despite all the foam mouthed leading Brexiteer hyperbole as they spin misinformation from their ivory towers. Our best deal is the one we have. Everything else puts us on our back heels. Trying to compete globally after tearing up very good FTA's is rather pointless on an island nation with a massive trade imbalance... when you're talking about tangible items; physical things constrained by loss of productivity, value or quality as a function of time and distance. Intangibles.... our financial services.. fine. Mouse clicks and CPU cycles. The bold bit doesn't matter currently. Just wait, it will.
  14. Fitting bit of market intelligence from the local oil rag.. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/188112/collaboration-still-difficult-to-achieve-says-north-sea-survey/ Not sure that you'll have purchasing officers getting approval from their directors and boards to pay more for less. Efficiency gains? Not really. I wouldn't argue the basin has become more 'efficient' https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/national/17291446.oil-firms-urged-to-join-forces-to-revitalise-exploration-in-north-sea/ Not sure you'll get a major, super-major or PE ventures to 'collaborate' effectively.
  15. Just in time for the UK to enjoy a few weeks of free trade with Japan. Not good for all the Brexiteers working at UK based Japanese car plants however.
  16. I'm sure that Julius Caesar had similar intel prior to becoming a human tea bag. The leadership ballot is a secret one. You'll never know who knifed whom in the back.
  17. I'd not mention that in certain places in the North... you'll likely end up as kindling on next years bonfire... or at least get a good kicking by foam-mouthed locals.
  18. Fresh new investment would entail some big project work and lotsa-lotsa drilling... not just routine maintenance (on the cheap mind!) or the changing of boiler suits & hard hats offshore for ones with a new corporate badge. Furthermore, we've committed heavily to big-subsidy projects which will not satisfy the near future energy demands of the UK... lofty (and unrealistic) renewable goals, unrealistic carbon budgets, EV car 'revolution', and really have failed miserably in our next gen nuclear ambition. The UK.gov is really in a state... PE players are entering because they are buying up end-of-life assets on the cheap and not having to (or not planning to) cover the end-of-life liabilities... and the majors are not giving up full stake in productive wells and projects. Just dumping the marginal stuff more or less. There's much more efficient returns on capital elsewhere in the O&G business. As to the bold bit... I'd argue they are just doing less... with pretty much the same costs and efficiency... however; I can't say I've seen many big projects under way to draw a conclusive position on that though. The EPC's have been hammered of course. I'm sure some of those still working in that sphere can enlighten on that environment now vs. pre-2014.
  19. Of course they would. Violence would erupt in NI and such other orange order hotspots as Liverpool and Glasgow. The Republic isn't interested in the OO's sense of loyalty or their toxic rhetoric. It's perhaps that which irritates them (the OO gang) the most. Being ignored. Hence their requirement to be obnoxious and traipse thorough 'certain' neighbourhood banging on pot lids and blowing slide whistles. In other news: Study: No Deal Brexit Could Cost U.K. 750,000 Jobs Also Chart from Mr Armstrong (source of figures) So... All this so some people on this board can buy houses 2-for-1 and burn the infidel immigrants. And me to keep filling up my bigot-bingo card squares and redeem them for sovereignty. How many Brexiteers are still happy with their vote?
  20. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/norway-option-is-worst-of-all-brexit-outcomes-for-uk-say-eu-sources-rules No sh1t.
  21. I'm humbled by the idea of having an internet stalker who chimes in occasionally with lovely compliments.
  22. Yes, standards are essentially consensus documents. All well and that... but I revert to what I wrote earlier. Without a standard for EV batteries across all suppliers you'll not have an effective recycling or re-powering program. Without said effective programmes you'll have a range of contentious environmental issues. So that is why I state that EV's should be paying a lot more for their toys; legacy costs. Meanwhile, as both the ICE and EV industries trundle along we're consuming vast quantities of petro-chems... in both cases. Hence why I also keep writing that the hype around EV's is just that. We're not there yet. I'll not convince you, that's pretty obvious. That's not the point either. Debate is good.
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