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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by LiveinHope

  1. The Mill house, seen it in the paper myself. To me the interior is an anathema to the exterior. However, unfortunately, EAs in this area have led a sheltered life as the London cash has poured into the market. But, I am astonished at the number of branches now closing as they consolidate offices, perhaps to keep warm around the brazier this winter. Yesterday, I posted the following comment made by an EA in this same area when I tried to negotiate a sensible offer, which was viewed as a unrealistic. EA: "each day I tell my staff that it is one less day until the next boom" Brrrrrrrrr...
  2. No, not registered with any filtering service. My partner is also not getting any unrequested letters either. I am sure there is variation, however. Perhaps I am just not worth chasing as I have always paid off the full amount every month.
  3. I Just realised that I can't remember the last time I got junk mail asking me to take out a new credit card or loan I also wonder if the following (true) conversation is still taking place with school leaving applicants for jobs, in a certain failed bank: Interviewer, "tell me how would you talk to a customer who just came in", Applicant, "well, I suppose I might say isn't it a nice day", Interviewer, "No, you would say hasn't the weather been poor, why not take out a loan for a holiday". How we got to where we are, or rather, how they got to where they are.
  4. Yes, agreed, but it seem/feels that we are the only people who look at that graph...... and realise. I have shown it to so many highly educated people who insist 'it will be different this time'.... (and they don't mean 'even worse'). Perhaps it's because they are homeowners
  5. so did I, I never expected my post to make it to the forum, but I am enjoying the suggestions. While I admit I perhaps have a 'too realistic view', there is a huge amount of denial in the market.
  6. Just spoke to an EA on the phone about their valuation on a property, which stands at 10 x avg salary for a semi detached 2-up 2-down (caveat of rural area close to nice beaches with high 2nd home ownership). To give a view of the current local market, lots of local EAs are closing branches and one has converted a branch solely to lettings. When I suggested to them my view of the price and my offer, I was told, "each day I tell my staff that it is one less day until the next boom" Can anyone suggest a suitable counter argument for this situation ? Floored by the EA's answer, I could visualise their eyes glazing over as I went through my feeble views "but mortgage multiples are down, second home buyers (AKA silly money) have disappeared, are you selling any properties at the moment etc.. (they sold one last week) ?.... While I thought the EAs response was amusing and worth sharing, I would appreciate help (or even moral support) as I've rented, saved and waited 12 years and could be in a position to buy a sensibly priced home outright; especially tempting as I am worried that interest of 1% on savings would no longer cover living expenses if I lost my job.
  7. I rarely post. But that really frightened me. I maybe naive, but I want banks and markets to sort themselves out by 'natural selection', not intervention.
  8. well if I can get the data (is it freely available and if sowhere?), I will see if I am able or have time to fit an 'equation'
  9. Apologies for perhaps a naive post, and with the often said caveats of 'I've been following hpc for some time'. Is it possible to obtain the data for the Nationwide graph (I am sure you could from Nationwide if they release the data)? If so, it should be possible to fit a polynomial to make a forecast, perhaps with confidence limits; this may have been done already. It appears from eyeballing the curve that there are some simple underlying patterns that should be possible to model to make a prediction about peak to trough (fall and duration etc), rather than guess.
  10. And when you are so well educated from surfing the net where will you go to further yourself, credit crunched Universities ? http://www.guardian.co.uk/education/2008/s...iversityfunding
  11. At the last crash I think the South Hams held up pretty well in value, apart from repossessions, and there were not many of those as most people that might get into negative equity in other areas fortunately can't afford to own at all in the South Hams (saved form debt by the really extreme prices, so to speak). Other properties are owned by people who, while perhaps wanting to move, just sit tight until their investment again reaches the price they paid for it (not factoring in the loss in value in real terms). What is different this time is the large number of second homes owned by people in the South East who may have to sell as the economy goes bust; this may alter the outcome favourably. My main point though is to not watch the crash go by expecting those great falls, if you want to own. My observation is that there appears to be no concensus price at the moment among EAs for a given property type. (by the way, Totnes is going to change quite a bit when Dartington College of Arts relocates to Falmouth)
  12. Think of the money you could make if you learn Mandarin. On another note, I would encourage anyone at your age who hasn't traveled already, and worked in another country, to do so. England will still be here (& probably even worse) and you will be locked even more into a materialistic mindset. A wise (I like to think) elderly person once said to me 'you are a long time dead'. Another quote I like is by Charles de Gaul (I think), who once said that 'the Graveyards of Paris are full of indispensable people'. right, now I must again practice what I preach
  13. It would be GREAT to see those kind of reductions so that houses became homes. House prices of comparable properties in my area of the Southwest (south hams) are already 'all over the place', as this HPC takes hold. No one (EAs included) seem to know the value of the market at the moment, although reductions still haven't brought any prices to sensible values IMHO. Personally, I can't wait for an average 50% (to even 70%) off. However, my fear (here) is that it could turn out to be very similar to the last crash when the market just went stagnant due to seller denial and so it never saw 'true value', except for repossessions. Having rented during the the last crash and on through the bubble I think it may be another very frustrating time during which many houses come onto the market 100% over valued so that sensible renters sit on the sidelines in the hope (futile?) that they reduce in price to a true 'home' value rather than sell speculatively. Perhaps the only thing really different to last time here is that the number of second homes has ballooned during the last decade and these may come on to the market to help the HPC on its way as the economy unfolds. I hope so. As a newbie I feel I should say., I could be wrong.
  14. Just heard that the 'corner kitchen', agent is closing an office (this is the South Hams, prime real estate). In the local property section this week most houses are now 'Guide' or 'OIRO', this was rarely the case in recent times. Also, The Mercantile Group have acquired two estate agencies (offices and franchises). Paraphrased, the press release states "with this purchase, we remove the uncertainties that have concerned both staff and clients and we have created a much leaner entity, with a much better business model going forward. We can now empower the staff and let them get on with business" (WMN, Westcountry Homes, 2008, 19th July page 2). But what business is there ?? http://www.bradleys-openhome.tv/ (One day only, 'cos its cheaper tomorrow) It's getting quite exciting. Trouble is, what the heck do you offer on a property (& no I don't want a corner kitchen).
  15. 5 years ago I registered with estates agents in my area (South Hams). As I could not chase the market up in a choice second home area the EAs soon lost interest, and so after an initial flurry I got no further mailings. I haven't heard anything in 5 years (happy renter but would like to buy). Over the last three months I have started getting many property listings through the door. I confess that I didn't realise that EAs kept names on file that long ! Most 10% down (no where near enough IMHO, I think this area is at least 50 % overvalued, but most people (home owners) contradict me when I say that). I wonder if this is a sign that agents are getting desperate ? This converted garage is a must have (at half the price), especially with its 'feature' entrance through a tunnel and the 'corner kitchen' http://www.primelocation.com/uk-property-f...d/LMMS999000154
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