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LiveinHope

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  1. Were all those on this thread who deny MMGW equally vociferous about denying the HP bubble, or were you in the other camp then? I expect from your knowledge of the field through research, you were right.
  2. I agree, omitted WV, well spotted, an additional variable in the atmosphere that is likely to involve both positive and negative feedback loops. Positive and negative feedback again, involving sea level changes, aeolian inputs, increased primary production in the oceans etc all influencing the progression of the natural glacial-interglacial cycles likely triggered by Milankovitch cycles. We are increasing atmospheric CO2 at an unprecedented rate (compared to the last 450,000) years by returning carbon, that was sequestered from the atmosphere over millenia, over a very sort timescale. If you are happy with that, fine. With my first hand knowledge of how ecosystems are responding, I am rather concerned.
  3. Over the last 450,000 years, prior to the industrial revolution around 1860, atmospheric CO2 levels fluctuated between about 160 and 260 ppm, which reflected the glacial – interglacial periods; this evidence is from ice core data. Since the industrial revolution, CO2 levels have increased to about 370 ppm as carbon has been added to the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels. The earth receives about 340 W per square m from the sun every year. Of this 340 W, about 30% is reflected back to space, so that the energy absorbed by the Earth’s surface is about 240 W per square m, globally averaged. Knowing the energy received, and if you consider the earth to be a black body such that heat in = heat out, it is possible to calculate the Earth’s surface temperature by using the Stefan Boltzmann law; which gives a chilly surface temperature for the earth of about -18C. The Earth’s globally averaged temperature is, of course, a warm 15C. There are three gases in our atmosphere, CO2, nitrous oxide and methane, whose molecular structure causes them to trap some of the longwave radiation re-emitted from the earth giving rise to the greenhouse effect, which gives the Earth its current warm temperature of 15C. If we apply the same reasoning to two other planets, Venus and Mercury, we find that Mercury without an atmosphere has a predicted and actual temperature that match, about 167C, in contrast the surface temperature of Venus at about 467C is about 400C hotter than predicted. The atmosphere of Venus is 96% CO2 (with surface clouds of sulphuric acid) giving the planet a runaway greenhouse effect. Hundreds of millions of years ago the atmosphere on earth was rich in CO2 (perhaps up to 5000 ppm) like Venus. The evolution of photosynthetic prokaryotes (eg cyanobacteria) and eukaryotes (eg phytoplankton) in the sea slowly removed carbon from the atmosphere transferring it to a deep-sea carbon store in the sediments; this organic carbon became today’s oil and gas reserves. On land, higher plants transferred atmospheric carbon to coal deposits. Atmospheric carbon is also removed from the atmosphere by rock weathering. The weathered products are carried to the sea where they are precipitated biogenically by the plankton (by coccolithophores, foraminifera, diatoms and radiolarians) in calcium carbonate and silica. This process, rock weathering and biogenic sedimentation is known as the Ebelman-Urey reaction and it created geological features such as the White Cliffs of Dover. Naturally, inorganic carbon is replenished to the atmosphere through metamorphic degassing and volcanic activity on land and at mid-ocean ridges. Limestones can then be exposed and weathered or subducted and melted or metamorphosed, liberating CO2. Natural liberation or buried organic carbon is by geo-respiration, as oxidative weathering of organic matter in sedimentary rocks that are uplifted onto the continents or by thermal decomposition. Together, this is all known as the long-term carbon cycle. The burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacture are an anthropogenic acceleration of the long-term carbon cycle that is removing the geological carbon reservoir 100 x faster than would occur naturally, liberating the greenhouse gas CO2 to the atmosphere. The most recent natural change in atmospheric CO2 we know about was at the end of the last ice age, when CO2 rose by 80 ppm (from 190ppm to 270ppm) over about 10,000 years. The present change in atmospheric CO2 (from 270 ppm around the year 1860 to about 370 ppm today) is 100 times greater than at the end of the last ice age and over the next 20 years the global average temperature is predicted to rise by 0.2 °C per decade as a result. This change in temperature is superimposed on natural cycles of global warming and cooling, and it is also influenced by changes in surface albedo, cloud cover, the amount of black carbon on snow, atmospheric aerosols, atmospheric ozone and linear contrails etc. It is the fact that this anthropogenic increase in CO2 is in addition to ‘natural’ cycles that is important. Changing temperatures may alter ocean currents, climate patterns (due to changes in patterns of heat distribution) and patterns of precipitation. As humans we also tend to forget that most organisms are poikilothermic, cold blooded, and so their metabolism is influenced directly by the temperature of the surrounding medium, whether it is air or water. The current pace of climate change is faster than eukaryotic organisms are likely to be able to adapt. If we return to the important plankton, as they live in the surface of the sea they are sensitive to changes in sea temperature. Already the plankton are changing their abundance and distributions over enormous spatial scales and we do not know how this may influence the marine food web or the drawdown of carbon over short-term or long-term time scales.
  4. Perhaps unfortunately for Brown, the proportion of the population who think or have been led to believe that everything should come to them on a plate as a rite, whether it be a plum job, promotion, ipod, plasma screen, umpteen holidays etc, might just be Borwn's comeuppance when they find they actually have to work to achieve.
  5. Quite frankly, I am scared of being led by this man who seems to me to suffer from hubris and currently to live in a state of panic, which may be additional flaws in his personality along with supposed indecision, bullying, delusion etc.
  6. The BBC have just presented a marvelous incite into HPC and the credit crunch that should drive it home to the Sheelpe Remarkably it was on the children's programme Go For It on R4 (7.15 tonight) Perhaps the savvy children can explain it to their parents
  7. From a point of total economic ignorance and increasing despair I tend to agree with you. It feels everything at the moment is PR spin (so what's new). Interest rates are cut, I (Brown) demand banks pass it on, Banks give out a statement capitulating (wink wink amongst each other)..Look how masterful I (Brown) am. It has worked short term, did anyone hear Hilary Benn on Any Questions on R4 tonight, and the audience's appreciation. Do you remember those plate spinning variety acts that are now out of fashion. Well you could only run around and keep so many spinning before one fell, and then another and another... I agree that's not as good as Paddles' Tsunami analogy on another thread but at least I can picture Brown doing that, I can't picture him in a swimming costume, or rather don't want to. I live in an area where houseprices are 10-15 times a single average income and 40% of properties are vacant most of the year. Impossible to buy if you do not subscribe to idiocy. A semi-detached 2-up 2 down here can be well over 300K. I can almost understand what went on in N. Wales in the 70s. Common sense without economics says the last decade has to be totally unsustainable. The banks have to be bust since the majority of the money just doesn't exist. So I think the banks will catch Brown out with arrangement fees, LTVs etc., look how they raised rates or withdrew deals prior the anticipated IR cut. I just hope that low interest and inflation does not erode everyone's STR or 'my save to buy', or the BS go bust - after all there is a limit to the number of 50K accounts you can open. Sorry about all of that, just convincing myself that the HPC is still full-on
  8. Not just the knives, but the meat they cut up too. Poultry eggs hatched in the UK, chicks sent to eastern Europe to grow (poultry food is cheaper), birds killed and carcasses sent to UK where breasts are removed (produced in the UK), carcasses sent back to eastern Europe to be turned into sausages for local sale. And there is still a profit on the breasts.
  9. I'm no economist, in fact I spend much of my time thinking in hindsight 'that was obvious, wish I'd had my cash in $' etc... but the above scenario is worrying, and makes me think I should dump the cash on a b@@@dy house while the cash is still worth something. The same cash certainly won't cover rental at 1%. However, at 10x salary (2-up 2-down in SW) I just can't justify the trade for the bricks. Feels like a rock and hard place right now.
  10. 1) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/...453291a_F1.html 2) Not my field of research, I'll stick to this planet. Variations in other planets depend on whether or not they have sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere, but see post 47 (this is a standard comparison for the lay person, see 7 below). 3) See 1 above 4) See image in post 103 5) Several models, none proven (see 6). You could try, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle.../modeldata.html 6) 100%? nothing's a dead cert. I thought you understood probability, that's why you may not have got into BTL or did you... I didn't know anything I suggested you read was 500pp But everything is peer reviewed, which is important, no wiki stuff. 7) If you don't like reading, I could recommend Ralph Cicerone's presentation highly, third link in post 144. Bye
  11. Sorry, you asked for data. Not sure I want to enter back into this debate, because, having read on it is not really going anywhere and I guess you are goading others, and realise the underlying trends As you say later, the long-term trend is more important than short-term anomalies that can give both cool and hot years. Greenhouse gases are not the only factor affecting global climate. What it is important to realise is that atmospheric CO2 levels are now 100ppm higher than they have been at any time over the last 450 thousand years, and this increase has taken place since the industrial revolution. Since CO2 is a greenhouse gas it will affect global average temperatures and climate (a baseline that will affect the way other influences on climate are perceived). Rising temperatures may trigger a number of positive and negative feedback loops (similar mechanisms have been responsible for the glacial - interglacial cycles), and the outcome of these in a warmer world is unclear at best. In the short term, global climate change is affecting ecosystems, which should be concern enough. Hopefully, the final link will work. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/index.html http://royalsociety.org/page.asp?id=4761&a...CFQOx1AodqkvEzA http://royalsociety.tv/dpx_royalsociety/dp...rt=&tstart=
  12. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/coads/ http://icoads.noaa.gov/index.shtml
  13. Time to publication I am afraid. It simply takes that long to synthsise, model, write up, peer review, proof read and publish the enormous amount of data collected up to 2000. Look at the intervals between each Assessment report. No conspiracy. The fifth assessment report when it is published will include more recent data, but again not 'up-to-date' at the time of publication. Even much smaller pieces of scientific work can take up to 2 years to be published. You do your experiment and collect and anlayse the data. Let's start the clock ticking. You write up your experiment, could take 2 - 6 months depending on the complexity and numbers of authors involved. You then submit the paper to a journal. Your paper gets sent out to anonymous peer review and this can take up to a further 3 months. Your peers make comments (constructive criticisms), which you must answer (this may even involve additional experiments), perhaps another 2 months. You revise the paper and resubmit. The Journal typesets the paper and sends proofs, another 2 months. It may take another 6 months to be published. Time goes by. There are a few rapid response journals e.g. Nature, Science that can achieve a faster publication time, but these are not where most science is published.
  14. The scientific community supports global warming (climate change) due to increasing global carbon emissions (in the most part, see figure below taken from the IPCC 4th assessment reoprt, which gives the level of scientific understanding (LOSU) for various radiative forcing components), overwhelmingly. While I would not counter the censor of any alternative viewpoint, it would provide undue weight to any counter arguments if a 'one for, one against' situation were presented; this is a fault often made by the media when one scientist is pitted against one doubter in the attempt to give a balanced argument, which of course it does not. http://www.ipcc.ch/graphics/graphics/syr/fig2-4.jpg
  15. this may help, http://royalsociety.org/document.asp?id=3249
  16. Enjoy http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm http://www.ipcc.ch/
  17. I may get some flack for this long reply read or not, believe or not The atmosphere and climate we have on Earth now is a result of the interaction between biological life and geological cycles over millennia. In the oceans photosynthetic bacteria (cyanobacteria) and single celled phytoplankton fix carbon dioxide (this accounts for about 50% of global photosynthesis), and some also result in the removal of carbon through the synthesis of calcium carbonate (single-celled coccolithophores do this for instance). Over short-term time scales (annually) this process (together with photosynthesis on land) is depicted very well by the Keeling curve, which shows the fluctuations in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere of the northern hemisphere as photosynthesis and respiration alternately dominate the annual carbon cycle. Over long-term time scales (millennia) in the oceans the sinking of organic and inorganic carbon to the seabed, and the incorporation of a small fraction into the sediments has created oil and gas deposits (organic carbon) and geological features such as the white cliffs of Dover (inorganic carbon). Land plants created coal reserves over similar time-scales. Over geological time-scales the carbon sequestered in this way is returned to the atmosphere by volcanism and rock metamorphosis. Changes in the relative rates of these processes (for example, the amount of volcanic activity which is influenced by plate tectonics), together with sun spot activity and fluctuations in the Milankovitch cycle all influenced global temperatures and climate over millennia (this is known as the long-term carbon cycle). Over the last 450 thousand years atmospheric CO2 has fluctuated between about 160 and 270 ppm (ice core evidence). Current levels are 370ppm. Since the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacture (rock metamorphosis) represent a short-term anthropogenic amplification of the geological side of the long-term carbon cycle. Carbon is being liberated faster to the atmosphere than it is removed by biology and other short-term physical processes such as the uptake by cold sea water at high latitudes and its transfer to the deep ocean as this water sinks. Carbon dioxide and methane are both greenhouse gases in that they prevent the escape to space of some of the heat that is re-radiated from the earth. While methane (CH4) is a more potent greenhouse gas in the short term, its persistence and concentration in the atmosphere is a lot less than CO2. The current global average temperature (which is about 15C) is influenced by the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, and without them the Earth’s surface temperature would be -18C. Similarly, the high CO2 atmosphere of Venus explains why its surface temperature is 466C, rather than the considerably cooler 66C, which it should be if the Stefan-Boltzmann law held true. In the absence of a greater global cooling, increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases will lead to a global warming, which will influence atmospheric circulation (climate), and through the heat transferred to the oceans, the ocean currents (transfer of heat from one region of the globe to another). Warmer seas will also degas CO2 as the solubilty of CO2 in water is lowered, providing a positive feedback. Some regions of the globe will warm more than others, and some may cool. This will all occur under the influence of other cycles (sun spot activity and Milankovitch cycles), and so the long-term outcome is uncertain. In the short term, there is considerable evidence that global warming (climate change) is altering the distributions of plants and animals and the timing of their seasonal cycles, and so it is altering the ecosystems that we all depend upon. Reducing anthropogenic global carbon emissions is likely to be a beneficial course of action.
  18. Grief that rings true. I was discussing this HPC with my gf last week. She is very charitable, "think about them, people will suffer, they might lose their house, they might lose their job, if it goes like you say" Calmly, I said that we have rented a tiny house for 15 years BECAUSE OF THEM, and now people like us might lose our jobs BECAUSE of THEM. As others have said, unemployed and buying a house. WTF. I've never typed WTF before.
  19. Went to my Pub on Friday. It is a small but very very busy well run rural pub (so no need for music), and would probably buck all reasoning for survival as it serves just one beer (very well), has had the same seven simple dishes on the menu for over 25 years, and does not allow children. If you want to eat you have to book a week ahead. the bar girl said that in the last couple of months the clientele had become the SAGA age group. As an aside, I do sometimes wonder how self serving (to HPC advocates) anecdotes like this are. Just had a very frustrating coffee time conversation about "how prices will recover next year as it's different this time"..Yes, it certainly is different this time.
  20. In the wrong hands they often do, that is the problem.
  21. Interesting OP. Are you a horse owner ? My comments may light a touch paper amongst some, but you have hit upon another Nu Labour bubble that many of us expect to burst. The last 15 years have seen a huge increase in horse ownership as a luxury/status symbol, in essence 'we've arrived on the scene'. It has also spurned an incredible 'bling' culture and industry in horse couture, e.g. hideous pink rugs (IMO), alongside every possible potion, flavoured treat (what's wrong with a cheap old carrot), and accessory you could possibly imagine (they are working animals for goodness sake). Go to any Gymkhana and you well see what I mean. Incidentally, gymkhanas used to be friendly, fun family events, but now the voluntary judges almost have to wear riot gear against 'offended parents' of second placed 'little princess and her Starlight-Trooper the 2nd'. Many of the 'new' horses and ponies are no more than pets, that are overfed, under-exercised and so blowing a fuse, which is why 'little princess' often comes second, and it has led the RSPCA and vets to raise the spectre of 'animal cruelty' since so many are overweight (Nu Labour got rid of a great way for horses and ponies to let of steam). Consequently, this desire for horse flesh has driven up horse prices and land prices (5 acre paddocks can sell for 60 grand), so that many of us are now eagerly anticipating a reduction in their value (negative equINity?) as much as (alongside) a reduction in house prices. The only problem is that many of the horses now for sale have taken on the the psychological problems of their owners, and so are probably best sent to France. Horses and houses and the ruination or this country by NuLabor, "light the blue touch paper" topics :angry:
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