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House Price Crash Forum


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About Akrasia

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  1. Part of the problem is a lack of clarity in the language. What counts as the end of the recession? What counts as a recovery? Is it when things stop getting worse and start getting better, or is it when we get back to where we were before the recession started? There seem to be a lot of green shoots articles that mix these two up, thinking that as soon as we get a quarter of growth things will be as they were before.
  2. Think about where prices are going, not where they've come from. This may be the best opportunity they've had for a while, but that doesn't mean it's the best opportunity they're going to have for a while.
  3. I could be wrong, but I think that mortgage valuations tend to be either a fair market valuation or the sale price, whichever is lower. That means that if the mortage lender wants a 10% deposit, dropping the price from 100k to 90k doesn't drop the deposit from 10k to nothing but from 10k to 9k.
  4. Inflation is +3.9% for me. Perhaps the BoE could raise my personal interest rate to compensate.
  5. Low interest rates may not have brought growth, but that doesn't mean that they haven't stimulated the economy; where would we be with higher rates? There was an economist doing the media rounds a month or so ago talking about Japan's lost decade. If I remember correctly, he was arguing that in this type of recession the mind-set shifts from maximising profits to minimising debts, and he thought that one implication of that is that selling government debt to fund greater government spending isn't a problem. I don't know whether that's true or not, but it isn't obvious that there'll be a gilt
  6. I'm not sure that's fair. He's stood up to the government quite a few times, to the point where he's been accused of meddling in politics.
  7. To be honest, I'm not sure; I've heard conflicting ideas about how difficult it will be to find buyers for government debt. Media coverage following the BoE's quarterly inflation report has all pointed to interest rates staying low, e.g. "The governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, implied earlier in the week that the Bank rate could stay at 0.5% until well into 2011." [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8199933.stm] However, I appreciate that the media, and even Merv, have been known to get things wrong.
  8. My reading of the situation is that for Mervyn King defending the pound isn't as high a priority as stimulating the economy, so the interest rate rises will be deferred. If you'd like to explain why I'm wrong then please go ahead; I'm always interested to hear a reasoned counter-argument.
  9. I'd put the interest rate rises much later than that. Interest rates won't go up until the worst is behind us and there are signs of a lasting recovery. The worst won't happen until after the election next year, when the Tories have taken an axe to the public sector.
  10. Had a viewing the other day and got into an interesting discussion with the EA. She complained that there are too many would-be buyers out there over-offering, that vendors always go for the highest offer, and that this is leading to sales falling through when the mortgagee refuses to lend based on the prospective buyer's valuation. The uptick in buyers' confidence combined with vendors' greed is preventing proceedable offers from being accepted, so she's looking forward to sentiment turning negative again. Haven't heard an EA try to talk down the market before!
  11. If they're a member of the scheme, complain to The Property Ombudsman.
  12. My objection to these schemes isn't that they're bad for people who buy using them, it's that they're bad for house prices. The solution to excessive house prices isn't to enable people to pay excessive house prices (e.g. by lending them high income multiples, or by letting them buy half a house if they can't afford a whole one). The solution is to bring down house prices (e.g. by restricting mortgages to sensible income multiples, or by building more homes). Shared equity schemes just prop up the market. They may mitigate the problem (by preventing some key workers from being driven away fr
  13. Good description, and even if it wasn't deliberately engineered for this purpose the effect is the same.
  14. Agreed, so that probably isn't what he's trying to do.
  15. Let's suppose that he is trying to get someone else to take on his mortgage commitments without realising it. Given the personal checks that are involved in taking out a mortgage, I'd be astonished if they could be transferred from one individual to another easily enough that it wasn't obvious what was happening. Does anyone know if it's possible to transfer a mortgage, and if so what's involved?
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