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nemesis

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About nemesis

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  1. The rest of Dr Birnie's quote: If I read it right he seems to be basing his prediction for NI solely on what is predicted to happen for the rest of the UK. Is anyone seriously suggesting that UK prices will more than double in the next 10 years? Even if they are how does it necessarily follow that the same will happen here? The two markets have clearly decoupled - they didn't follow us all the way down so why on earth should anyone suggest we will follow them on the up? It's worse than a "back if a fag packet job" - it's someone else's fag packet! He would have been better to tell it as it is, perhaps something like this - "Prices are still falling albeit at a slower rate (because if they kept falling at fast as they did then houses would soon be worthless). They will keep falling until they stop and it's anyone's guess when that will be. They might rise again someday or then again they might not." Not quite the fluffy good news the people want but at least a ring of honesty to it!
  2. Undoubtedly the chart does appear to be levelling for the average price of all houses, although detached seem to have a bit to go yet. Even if nominal prices remain flat (which they may not) inflation at the current 2.6% will continue to make the real price drift lower anyway. It's sobering to see how it happened before between 1979 to 1991 - when inflationary losses exceeded any nominal gains. Perhaps this awaits us again.
  3. Too sunny in the summer .... perhaps next it will then be too wet in the autumn and then too cold in the winter. Bets for a spring bounce next year anyone? Seriously, I can't imagine anyone not buying a house because it turned sunny in July .... better reasons than that I'm sure.
  4. Attached is a chart I drew for my amusement using the Nationwide data and the Bank of England inflation calculator to work out the "real" prices of NI houses - for all, detatched, and the UK for comparison. (I'm sure I saw something similar on here before but I couldn't find it.) The blue line is the real NI average price before 2000 - about £73k. I would be amazed if prices were to double again from here, either in nominal or real terms, in just 12 years when there is little evidence that they have even bottomed yet. What would be the driver except for another credit boom? The speculation that prices will ever return to 2007 levels would have to be based on the assumption that prices then were good value and they will correct back. More likely their true value is really being approached now. The myth seems to remain out there that what happened to NI house prices in the last 10 years was normal and the deflated prices we are seeing now is abnormal rather than the other way around. Real House Prices NI.pdf Real House Prices NI.pdf
  5. I suppose I'm trying to guesstimate the intrinsic value of a 3/4 bed, 2 reception, fully kitted MacMansion. When would it's price equal it's value? Could you build for the RV?
  6. Any thoughts on what it would cost to build (not including site) and finish a property like this ie. kitchen, tiling etc. It looks fairly similar to the thousands of others that appeared on almost every country road in the last 10 years - the dream self-build perhaps. It seems to me that it is the prices in this sector that are the most sticky. Given than these houses represent a huge section of the middle market their price will have to fall eventually if upgraders are to be able to buy them. I would have thought that their actual build cost (+ agricultural land price on which they sit) would be a useful baseline to at least have in mind.
  7. A more measured report from the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-23669225
  8. Although this was bid up quite a bit from the 70k guide price ..... http://www.brggibsonauctions.com/propertydetails.asp?pid=688&Auction=B
  9. A fairly adventurous shower in the last one for Ballymena folks I would have thought. Certainly putting their best assets in the front window so to speak! If they can't sell the house they could sell tickets!
  10. Good advice but easier said than done. A few weeks ago on another property with no other offers I put in an offer 10k below the asking price which was rejected, against my better judgement I went up to 5k below - rejected again. No deal. It's almost hard to believe that in the current climate in that area a seller would reject a no-chain deal for the sake of 5k. I suppose they hope they've priced at the bottom of the market - some hope!
  11. It's 2009 since I posted last - probably having got depressed waiting for the elusive bottom. My "dream house" is probably seen by many as a ridiculous luxury in these austere times - a little second home somewhere up on the North Coast. (But we all have to have our dreams!) I suppose I first wished for it as far back as 2000 but could never imaging affording it during the boom. Now, well maybe I can. The only thing holding me back is, well, waiting for that elusive bottom. It's good to read that many of the old timers have finally bought. Perhaps, like myself, they had the feeling that you can only wait so long - even if there is a potential downside of finding you've paid too much in a few years time. With prices at 2004 levels (Nationwide) - probably 2002/2003 levels when adjusted for inflation - is now the time to buy for the long term? I've found something affordable that ticks all my boxes, no other bidders, at about -25%RV. Realistically, I don't think prices will shoot up again and I'll never have another chance of getting my "dream" house. But I hadn't envisaged, when I posted many years ago and the whole crash started to unfold, how tired I would get of waiting for it to end. Any thoughts?
  12. Not your typical home buyer then! They should be good for the money they promised to pay - I doubt if the developer will have too much trouble getting the courts to extract it either. I wonder how many of this lot intended to relocate to the Ormeau Road? How about none!!
  13. Prices aren't being dropped as much but houses aren't selling either - Stalemate! Something has got to give. How long can Estate Agents hold on for even if buyers & sellers can wait?
  14. Sadly both statements are only too true! I suspect that many on here, however, are expecting a second leg to the crash - that will really knock the confidence of prospective buyers and with it the stuffing out of the market.
  15. If they won't drop the prices then they won't sell the houses - simple really. Are Ballymena people really so daft as to believe anyone will ever pay the prices they currently ask.
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