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About Thistle

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  1. There's another Scotsman's (scotlandonsunday) gem. Home sales hit by G8 violence fear JEREMY WATSON jwatson@scotlandonsunday.com WHETHER it makes poverty history is yet to be seen, but one unexpected outcome of the G8 summit of world leaders at Gleneagles last month was its effect on the Edinburgh housing market. Estate agents have reported a "huge drop" in homes offered for viewing around the time of three-day meeting and in visits by potential buyers because of fears they would be attacked by anti-capitalist protestors. But following the end of the summit, house viewings have soar
  2. It's good to see there are some optimists out there. Views like moncs's will help prevent a total house price meltdown. Moncs even if you could take your dad's flat's valuation as a reliable proxy for actual prices, it would imply a total return of 33%. But remember that annual hp growth in Edinburgh for Q2 2002/2003 18.57% and Q2 2003/2004 13.21% (ESPC figures) . Which implies, if I got my calculations correctly, that your father has made a paper loss for Q2 2004/2005: -0.67%. However, as valuations tend to be overoptimistic and lag the actual market, my guess is that the drop is bigger than
  3. The long-awaited Q2 report from ESPC is out (only on the Scotsman, not on ESPC). Note that average year-on-year prices has dropped by 3.5% in the following central areas: Marchmont, Gorgie/Dalry, Leith Walk/Easter Rd, Stockbridge/Comenly Bank & City Centre. I was certainly expecting a bigger drop, but I imagine that -3.5% is only the beginning. The article in the Scotsman follows. Note that sales volume is 2.6% higher than a year ago. If the number of unsold stock is rising, it can only mean that, compared to last year, a substantially higher number of people have been putting their hous
  4. I've been following price changes in some new developments (built within last 2-5 years) in the Easter Road/Leith area. Albion Gdns (sample 7 flats, 2 beds): as with many other newish developments, all flats are on FP, some of them have been on the market at least since Oct 2004. Only in the last month and a half there has been an average drop in (asking) FP of 3.6% (again in Albion Gdns). A quick look at nethouseprices tells you that (barring a couple of exceptions from some buyers who have so obviously just landed on this planet) they are actually shifting at heavy discounts. So DBT you're a
  5. I'm afraid I'm bringing you more of the tedious gloom. I suppose you must be referring to this mini article in the Scotsman: "House buyers move up THE number of prospective house buyers in Scotland has doubled since January, a survey released today has found. But buyers are also more cautious, with just one in seven prepared to offer 25 per cent above the "offers over" price. First-time buyers were struggling to raise the finance." Of course! Silly me! Why compare April 2005 with April last year, when there's January available? Does anyone know who realeased the survey? Also remember
  6. I would say that in a falling market if people don't sell and buyers remain constant, the trend should be reversed, ie prices should start rising. But that people won't sell is a big assumption, I'm afraid. Even in a falling market people still find jobs in other cities, new BTLs are still making losses, and some of them will start getting cold feet as they see their equity plummet. Sales volumes might be lower, but so will be the numbers of buyers out there. And the few that remain, knowing they have the upperhand, will start undercutting their offers (just like you are planning to do in Engl
  7. Hi AndrewPap, Have a look at the thread about latest ESPC stats - a drop of 8% in central districts over the last 3 quarters. Spring is the time of the year where traditionally house prices rise the most, granted. But with nearly 6,000 properties on ESPC books (a record in recent years), gloomy sentiment and few housebuyers out there, I just don't see it picking up at all. I don't get how you can say "theres no way people will sell below [10%] in Edinburgh". It's not up to the people I'm afraid. I don't think the 20 yr stats you're talking about are of much help here. If demand falls dramati
  8. Thanks for that DBT. I've had a quick look at the article schadenfreude was talking about (http://property.scotsman.com/news.cfm?id=394122005). It's fun to see these people struggling to come up with credible arguments to support their 'for ever growing prices' theory. Don't know about you, but I personally found the following statement quite offensive: Ron Smith, ESPC chief executive, said: "The figures for the first quarter of the year show that the property market is still buoyant." Outrageous! Is this an insult to anyone's intelligence or am I too stupid to appreciate the subtleties of
  9. Sorry about the dodgy table I posted before. Can anyone tell me how to do it properly? Thanks
  10. The table below shows price growth over the last 3 quarters (based on ESPC data). For those of you not familiar with it, 'Marchm' etc are the different districts in Edinburgh. Last column shows the change in the (home-made) average of those districts. Marchmont on its own is the only district to yield positive returns in the last quarter, but I don't think it's a trend setter. Marchm Gorgie Leith Wlk Stockbrid Centre av price Q3-04 -4.9% -0.5% -4.6% -0.9% -11.9% -5.2% Q4-04 -9.5% -3.0% -0.1% 0.1% 3.6% -2.1% Q1-05 5.3% -1.2% -2.2% -3.3% -3.2% -0.7% Total -9.1% -4.7% -6.9% -4.1% -11.5% -8.
  11. Hi AndrewPap, My guess is that you're either a solicitor, an ESPC director or a chief economist at one of the big lenders . No, seriously, have a look at ESPC's figures - prices dropped considerably in the 2nd half of last year. And when the Q1 ESPC figures are released, I'm afraid it's gonna be more of the same; or at best/worst they'll remain stable, which in effect will mean a year-on-year drop in three months' time. Besides, the anecdotal evidence you provide doesn't seem to be the trend? Or is it?
  12. I don't think foreigners have had such big an impact in the Spanish residential property market. Barring the Costas and Majorca, the effect Brits and Germans have had in the rest of the country is pretty much negligible. In my opinion, the fundamental drive behind the bubble are cheap credit (the mortgage & debt levels in Spain are huge) and an economy which is doing reasonably well. But maybe as important, if not more, is the fact that as los Suenos points out, none (or hardly any) of this gets reported in the Spanish media. The lack of any major property crashes and the spectacular price
  13. Moncs, I hope you're not putting your money where your mouth is... unless you've got buckets of it and don't mind throwing it down the drain. I agree with you that cities like Edinburgh will hold their price well - in the long run though. In the meantime why buy when the market has just turned and prices are obviously falling? First hand example: flat off Leith Walk 1dbl 1sgl (couldn't fit in a single bed though, that single!), went for 114,000 in July 2004. December 2004, same flat description, only in much better nick, and this time a proper single, 100ft away from the first flat - sold f
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