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House Price Crash Forum


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About Mog

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  1. The quants may come up with the models, but no model would be allowed to be used without management backing. It's not as simple as the above. But yes, many models were faulty.
  2. They're well FSCKed. (sorry, I had to get one in for the non-windows users.)
  3. I looked (not seriously) at buying in November last year, in a bit of north London in London Underground zone 2. Some choice quotes I heard from agents listed below. Different agents, different properties. -- "I've reduced the property by 20k but I think that the vendor would probably accept £Y" (where Y is 80% of asking price) -- "Personally i think you would be mad to offer £X for that- I don't know who they're expecting to buy it" -- "We're still selling houses, just a matter of at what price" -- "Owner is getting a bit desperate, mortgage repayments are getting to him" (when asked why
  4. I'm not a quant, so you're not dissing me. You are entirely correct, and that's why a lot of people switch fields. However, you'd then have to deal with the work politics, backstabbing, etc. I know a few people who switched fields who hated it and left because of that.
  5. I am not a quant, but I have worked with them for a good few years. In my opinion, it is useless to have a mathematical model unless you understand the inputs that go into such a model, the outputs of such a model, and most importantly the assumptions that go into it and where they break down. Unless you understand the latter, the formulae are useless. Where quants come in handy is that if you think that the 5th derivative of the Bessel function of the cross-correlation between the FTSE and SX5E is meaningful, a quant can calculate this for you, and given the right inputs can test whether y
  6. I've been able to buy since 2005 and have chosen not to because I thought prices were stupid. I'm sorry you can't afford a Ferrari. That's your lot in life. Have a nice Sunday.
  7. I didn't want to buy because I just thought that things were too expensive and that the euphoria closely paralleled the dotcom boom. It seemed too good to be true that prices were rising by 10% every year and that made my bullsh*t detector go off. I'm just old enough to remember working during the dotcom boom and the general hysteria surrounding it was much like was with houses recently- different this time, new paradigm, etc etc etc. I am a 30something paid computer geek (ie. software developer) in a financial company in London. Already lost one job this year as I used to work for a compan
  8. I heard, second hand, that it does not stand if the company goes bust. If the company decides to wind down it does stand. But that is also, I repeat, second hand.
  9. I don't know the fate of it. But I did get this emailed to me today: "Lehman's London Landlord Says Rent Payments Are Insured by AIG By Peter Woodifield Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s London landlord, Songbird Estates Plc, said rent payments on the bank's offices in the Canary Wharf financial district are insured by American International Group Inc. Lehman filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection yesterday and AIG, the largest U.S. insurer by assets, is struggling to raise cash to keep the company afloat. AIG is committed to paying up to four years of rent in th
  10. Yes, I do agree with you- my post was more thinking out loud really. To put it more clearly- I find it hard to believe that if everyone is running the same models, they can all continue making money year after year after year. If a model truly has insight, it'll be successful in all environments (or to put it another way, if the fund manager truly has insight, s/he will know when to change models). There is at least one fund that I know of which takes an approach of mathematics + intuition. They think that pure maths isn't enough.
  11. Quants aren't always wrong- Renaissance Tech is one of the best known quant funds in the world, and they have been up on average 35% a year since 1989. So up till now, they have been doing something right. (figures from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renaissance_Technologies, there are other links off the page). How long they'll continue to be right I do not know, but they are very secretive and hire people with arcane backgrounds like biological computing. Whatever it is they are doing, they aren't telling. A tutor in a financial maths class I once took said that all models are wrong because t
  12. Here are a couple of articles that discuss the quant fund blowout last year. https://www.technologyreview.com/article/19530/ - requires login, use login "bugme" password "bugmenot" http://www.glcuk.com/docs/Arbageddon.pdf - may be slightly technical
  13. I agree entirely. However, what I find entertaining is that turning PCs off was only mentioned this year. I don't think it would have saved them the tens of billions that they wrote down, though.
  14. A certain large European bank sent around a memo asking all employees to turn computers off in the evening as part of cost-cutting measures, including instructions on how to switch a computer off.
  15. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-157...10&tr_t=buy 1st Aug 2008 21:36:59 * Price changed: from '£440,000' to '£349,000' Rearrange: London, immune, not, is.
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