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House Price Crash Forum


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About propertydeveloper

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  1. even european M4 money supply is up 15% . unfortunately like it or not paper currency is funny money,euro,dollar, or stg. we havent even seen inflation yet (Except HPI) property long term is the only asset that will hold its own(although it has overshot the mark with the recent bubble)
  2. building regs have artifically kept building prices high. most houses out there are rubbish and have rubbish insulation. keeping new build prices up supports HPI.
  3. europe looks like its trashed, so does the states, so does britain. asia will be in freefall shortly according to many pundits. what does that leae us, south america? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtm...C-mostviewedbox
  4. rates are 46% of the rent i believe. personal gaurantees are something landlords try to get as well as longer leases however with these changes tenents are in a much stonger position. that means no personal gaurantees (possibly a bigger deposit in exchange) and favorable terms on lease length and renewal. anyone who is signing long leases for office or warehouse property needs their head examined. you can always move. with retail its a little different your location is your business.
  5. nothing to pass on though, if you die tomorrow, tough $h%^, your million is gone. i know which i would rather.
  6. point being why do people place value on gold? because its rare? so what?
  7. i would love to get into spread betting and to be honest im reading all i can at the moment. however this kind of speculation requires balls of steel and alot of time. even where long term prices are up you get short term price fluctations that can result in margin calls and large losses. if you put stop losses on it then you can lose in the short blip of a day or two. i wouldnt bet on gold if i was you..it is an essentially worthless metal (no different to the pound sterling or dollar notes that float about or the balances on a screen on the atm machine)with declining need as central banks are no longer linked to it and are thus selling it. asians and africans buy the stuff but as they become more americanised they will over time lose interest in its lustre.
  8. you are very clever, you are right it does not scale. however this isnt a level field we are all on is it? my criteria is a lack of oversupply/future oversupply or paying so little for the property that the rent covers the interest and the inflation is free. of course if a million retnal propertys are due to go up next to you or infrastructure improves like cheap fast trains youd be advised to sell and buy elsewere. at the moment yields arent favourable in the uk but they will be. the only question is local oversupply. lets face it there is no shortage of houses, when prices go up people hoarde houses and dont sell, price rises are justification for more price rises and then the fall comes but they go back up again as long as there isnt oversupply as the devil is inflation the silent monster that eats paper money slowly depreciating it. moral is the pension industry are crooks, good property bought correctly and managed is much better but not everyone has the knowledge and anyway someone has to buy the other financial assets, bonds, shares, cash deposits, commerical property funds, currencies but then thats the way the world is. the other assets managed cautiously/prudently can give very good returns. just ask warren buffett .quite alot of the economy is false but the money(wealth) goes back around(hopefully)... ps alot of rentals are needed for all the people on unemployment/disability benefits in this country. the government pays quite well i believe. i know guys who were buying houses in hull around the council estates in bulk from the government that were disposing of them for some reason for 5-8000 and renting them for 200 -300 a month to the unemployed. they were buying them in blocks of 50-100. these are the best tenents although they can trash the place the rents are gauranteed and paid direct.
  9. if you have a pension where is your money invested ?christ we have the biggest pension funds in the uk paying good money into a bank that is all but bust (B+ throwing good money after bad. a monkey could get a better return than most pension fund managers. you would be very lucky just to peg inflation never mind the mystical 7% returns they talk about on signing up. if you dont believe me look at the default funds run by the largest pension companies. and they take 1% per annum of the declining pot of money. the only reasons pensions exist is a tax scam where you pay out of your before tax income and you get a lump sum tax free on retirement along with an annuity. if you start contributing at 30 and retire at 60 and 'want' to die at 90 then you need to contribute 50% of your income( to live the same as in 30 years if inflation didnt exist. this is the best you can hope for. 30 years work, 30 years of no work. the 50% contributed is saved for the 50% that is given back. and this is the BEST you can hope for .as life expectancy increases annuity rates go down and will continue to go down. property bought today at good yields thats rentable with no oversupply is the best hedge against inflation. of course you dont want to be paying 50% too much for it with 20000 lettable flats going up next door that will screw your yields.
  10. of course you can, you can mine more. there is 2400 tonnes a year mined. gold isnt any less of a fiat currency than paper money. it has few intrinsic industrial uses. it is only valuable because people say it is, same as diamonds. yes it is rare but so are other elements on the periodic table. much of its value derives from asia where it is prized as a source of value in unstable times but this is because people think it does. since the gold standard ended central banks have been dumping gold as they have no use for it. quite alot of it was once used in dentistry but as a dentist i can tell you gold is unacceptable to most people and anyway most gold crowns have more copper in them than gold so it is essentially worthless. of much more value is oil, as oil is converted to food via fertiliser as well as energy that powers all of industry. but the average person cannot easily put their life savings in oil and in any case it cant be geared. also valuable and this may not be popular is property bought on a yield of just more than commerical long term interest rates. while paper money devalues property bought at the right price doesnt. the problem in the uk is that prices have overshot the benchmark due to a wall of liquidity, when they correct again well located rentable property will be a great asset to own. already one can buy property in countries like germany that fullfils the yield requirements easily without oversupply.
  11. 80 years left on the lease also. the only thing is i believe they have sold apartments at one hyde park for 10-20 million? so this must be rubbing off. it is a great area to be sure. i know i guy who owns a 4 or 5 storey house there on albion street and he reakoned it was worth 3.5million for about 2000 square foot over the 5 storeys. so 750sq foot must be worth something. two of his neigbouring houses sold last year for this figure each.
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