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Everything posted by mechos

  1. "... precisely zero." and yet... Play down the probability of there being a significant correction - But, just in case, play up the unworthiness of those who would benefit. Look. It's a market. Explain to me how worthiness enters into it. Wealth held in property is capital. Wealth held in cash is capital. You have irreversibly identified yourself with the the former in-group : you place the latter beneath contempt. Those here in the latter group have no such prejudice. We have an interest in buying property. Your irreversible position means all your comment is moot, and laced with bias.
  2. - So the HMcT message is that leveraging up on housing debt is a rite of passage - an acceptable "life choice". The eye-watering mortgage interest payments are worth every penny - they are not merely rent you pay the bank, they are the subscription fees for joining the club! If you're not a paid up member then you can be deemed to have made 'poor life choices' and may be branded as irresponsible. In HMcT's club rules, those who followed their calling and have become the biggest mortgage slaves are lauded as the most upstanding, most selfless and most responsible of members. Biggest Saps is the reality. Catch up? Eh, No! Non property owners have the wealth they believe they have, and it increases only as they work and save. If there is any perceived relative catching up then it's only because property owner's delusional dreams of (unearned) enrichment are being torn down. The biggest saps are the first to feel the pain - which is only good and correct. Smart money will have STR'd before now - a 'poor life choice' at this time would be to own excess houses.
  3. Bad news? Not a bit of it. That'll be my job safe(ish) then... ... and I don't think you'll find many others calling for redundancies in the UK manufacturing sector. It's the middle-men who creamed off commission and bonuses during the 10 year credit bubble who's time, we all hope, has come. It's certainly not been Selex Galileo employees who have been bidding up house prices. Until now steady, productive enterprise has got employees nowhere in this city : pitted as it has been against the bonus and greed-fuelled bubble economics of the financial sector and it's buy-to-let and estate agency cronies.
  4. This is the Edinburgh Facts and Figures thread. It is not the Find Any Bad News You Possibly Can Anywhere in the National Press thread. The fact you have to look so far off topic, and to such far flung sources in order to find a hint of a rumour of bad news that may or may not have any bearing on the current topic says a lot. I read that as Good News. Now don't do it again.
  5. A lot of people 'afforded' a lot of things thanks to the historic tidal surge of credit. That tide has well and truly turned. High water is marked only by denial-phase house prices. "Just getting on with it" has connotations of industriousness and personal responsibility to it. - But you are not talking about working to produce stuff, merely buying stuff; and when the price paid and the debt incurred puts family finances in jeopardy, that gives the lie to connotations of personal responsibility. A point was reached, in the last few years, beyond which to continue to ride that tidal surge of credit amounted to stupidity. Some tried hard but called it wrong, others called it right, many more are just clueless about the whole situation. A lot of clueless people "just got on with it". An uber-clueless core still do (though their numbers are dwindling). It's still a stupid time to buy (unless at a steep discount). In the mean time "just get on with it" - earning and saving money that is. This time the connotations of industriousness and personal responsibility are wholly appropriate. There will come a time when it is stupid not to buy - but that could be 2 years away.
  6. Apologies again. Your bear-in-despair approach keeps confusing me. There's so much tasty bear fodder out there, even Goldilocks would be spoilt for choice. Good luck with the lowball offers - I like the style - though it's bound to wind up the sellers. A good few rejections are to be expected.
  7. See you then. Will be identifiable by big grin, and bigger bottle of Bollinger. Do you think anyone has ever attempted an impromptu house party between 2 and 4 on a Sunday in some seller's home. HPC flash-mod is go!
  8. Yes. The fiver is mine though - whenever the truth becomes known. I unmasked thecrutchster as Hamish's alter-ego a month ago. (But he denied everything and I felt I had to apologise)
  9. thecrutchster is believed to be a property bull masquerading as a bear. He seeks out and repeats negative (bullish) news as if disheartened by it. Plenty of bear fodder - all left untouched.

  10. I demand .... either an end to crony-ism and corruption or more opportunity to participate
  11. mechos

    Edinbugh Latest

    Those who were acting responsibly are not being penalised at all. It is no penalty to have an unearned windfall become an ex-unearned windfall. OK - it's a shame if people regret missing an opportunity to realise that windfall before it evaporates, but that is not penalty for their responsible behaviour: just a missed chance. It is the irresponsible borrower who is being penalised. Highly leveraged purchase promises great returns but carries great risk. The naive have increasingly been swept along with the irresponsible sadly. You talk as if there is a hand of justice out there. (Religious?) "I see no reason why X should now be penalised to compensate for Y" "Financial Armageddon is too high a price to pay for cheap houses" (or something) Understand that no-one is controlling the markets to create these outcomes. They are emergent. There is no linkage or mechanism that targets the group being "penalised" and the chooses which group gets to benefit at their expense, and no-one is mendaciously creating financial armageddon with the aim of buying houses on the cheap in the aftermath. These things may happen: Bubbles, busts, crashes, - Good governance should aim to avoid them, but with the recent absence of good governance it's just important that individuals are not naive and keep well informed. There is no point in retrospectively trying to apply some kind of fairness and justice card - sniping at those who happen to have a survival plan. The market dynamics are to blame, not the individuals who cope with, or even thrive within the hostile economic environment. The vindication you seek is slipping ever further away.
  12. mechos

    Edinbugh Latest

    On the plus side, that will ensure ccc is forced not to entertain dangerous notions of property ownership till nearer the day when the crash finally bottoms out. Well done ccc. These are difficult times all round. H McT - as you have oft explained, your life is perfectly sorted: I can't put any more positive interpretation on your negative reponse than this:- You want to communicate that others ought to have sorted their lives out at the same time and in the same way as yourself - and that you want to ensure they now feel regret for not having done so. - Never mind that many here were teenagers/students in the 90's/noughties. Twisted bugger
  13. STOP PRESS: Correction. Have just renegotiated rent to £850 per month!
  14. Besides all the other arguments... People who rent £900ppm ex-council houses are not necessarily in the market for purchasing one once the crash ends. There isn't the same aspirational aspect to property rental as for property purchase. Rental gives you the option to move somewhere merely acceptable, and reap the benefits in terms of savings (and return on investments)- Safe in the knowledge that you can move on as and when you need or want to. I speak from direct experience. When I compare my £900ppm (~£600 net of investment returns) against the costs of a £200k mortgage on a £300k property, it reminds me how much sense my merely practical and acceptable rental property makes. 300k properties could increase in price and I'd still keep pace. As long as they don't vault away. The fact is, they are dropping in price faster than I can save up, and three times as fast as their owners can pay down their mortgages.
  15. I tire of the points-scoring mentality. This isn't debating club. We don't all have a 'position' which we commit to sticking to for all time. We're all in the business of trying to illuminate the many factors that have come to impact on house prices - and to reach our own understanding about which forces, deflationary and inflationary, will dominate prices, in which locations and over what time periods. I have a lot of time for attempts make a clear case for one set of forces dominating over another, either way. As for points-scoring labryinthine counter-arguments : no clarity can come of it. We will all come to change our minds about this stuff in time - and as we're talking about a dynamic situation, not moral philosophy, there is no weakness in this. ccc makes his predictions and gives his reasoning - and does so honestly. The majority of posters seek clarity in these matters because their futures will see them making decisions based on the insights they can gain. There is a minority of posters here looking to decisions in their pasts - their posts are more concerned with vindication, sometimes, in my view, flirting with self-delusion.
  16. Good luck! What sort of costs, if any, does each offer involve? And what sort of form do they take - Are they informal offers, Subject to survey? Any advice greatfully received. I might start playing that kind of game sooner or later.
  17. In that case - Apologies for the slur! :angry: *removes inquisitor robes*
  18. Don't worry. The comments say it all. It could be the EEN - the 'story' and the comments constrast so clearly. Crutchster, you seem to be searching far and wide to find articles that make you :angry: It's important to be realistic and search out the facts, I know, but you can find plenty of 'good' news too if you wanted to. ... and you parade your bad news here rather enthusiastically - even starting new threads. Hmmm... there's not a whiff of bull behind your < Bear/Bull : Neither > tag is there? You ARE Hamish. I claim my £5.
  19. Well. He's in Aberdeen so I expect the sensation of being out there on the right of the graph, at about the zero line, must feel something like being on a lilo looking down into the Marianas trench. As his arguments spin around in an ever tightening circle one word will strike terror into his soul. Corryvreckan. Sorry, getting a bit melodramatic with the rubbish analogies.
  20. I'd go as far as to say that you are not very receptive to any of the free advice you are offered in this forum. But I'd be wrong. If it wasn't all going in, it wouldn't provoke the reaction we see daily. Bless. We will keep supplying the advice. As long as you are obviously taking it in we will all remain satisfied.
  21. mechos

    Edinbugh Latest

    How nice? - depends on the cash you are able to splash around I guess? Pick up an ex-banker's mansion in Barnton or nearby Cramond - both have more modest houses too. Watch out for the airport flight path which skirts over the coastal parts of Cramond if you are bothered by noise. Some nice properties on the South facing slopes between Drum Brae and Clermiston Road, and then you are into Edinburgh Zoo territory and Murrayfield - where outdoor space starts to get progressively more expensive - unless you have a tent and don't mind zebras. I know the North and West of the city best. Advice on the South / South-West best come from someone else. Edinburgh has just been google mapped - so you can take a good look around. http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?f=q&sour...400000000000027 Lot's of bargains to be had renting larger houses at the moment,
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