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House Price Crash Forum

Warren BuffetCar

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About Warren BuffetCar

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  1. So unemployed people (remember unemployment has been rising for 5 months now, it hasn't done that since the early 90s) won't be forced sellers? This is a myth anyway that forced sellers are the only thing that can generate price falls. Imagine someone bought a house in 97 for 100k. 2 years ago house was valued at 250k. Now they want to sell but are told it is only worth 200k. You are suggesting they won't sell because they've lost 50k from 2 years ago. This is tosh. They will be quite happy to sell as they have still done alright. Maybe they would prefer to sit tight and turn down the good
  2. I don't get your point? Rates halved during the last property crash. If rates are cut, it should be obvious why: 1) rising unemployment (5 months running) 2) sharply slowing retail sales 3) manufacturing in recession. Problem is that inflation is at a 7 year high, and the chinese revaluation and weakened pound is only going to fuel this, not to mention high oil prices. The only thing that would stop house prices falling is a rate cut below 3.5% (the bottom of the last cycle)... and even then, people can't really take on more debt. Its seems the bulls are clinging to yet another dream t
  3. Historically, ie going back over the past 3 boom/busts, we've never really had inflationas low as it is today. the early 70s and late 70s/early 80s crashes both occurred at times of high inflation, leading people to believe that real prices might go down, but nominal ones never did. The next boom came along and the relatively low inflation might have caused some to think that real falls would be lower, as nominal falls wouldn't happen. Instead nominal falls did happen, and that in turn makes things much worse. People aren't inflated out of negative equity, and negative equity is the thing th
  4. A "hockey velodrome". Isn't a "velodrome" by definition somewhere to race bicycles, not to play hockey?
  5. Reduced to 189.9k Gawd, what on earth was it previously?
  6. Those neat lawns, tennis skirts and nice houses were all there in the late 80s too. Didn't stop the housing market going tits up. So your point is...?
  7. 1) check out what happened after the last housing boom peaked then crashed. Interest rates fell rapidly to around 5-6%. In fact they've averaged around that mark for over 10 years. So current rates actually aren't very low, they are a little below the 10-12 year average. Does this really explain the explosive growth since 2001? Of course not! IRs fell to 3.5% and house prices exploded. IRs rise to 4.75% (ie up 30% or so) so house prices should fall 30% eh? Simple. 2) To think a govt can stave off a crash is naive. Don't you think they'd have done this last time, and for the one before?
  8. I see hometrack even mentioned the election of a new pope as a possible reason for buyers holding fire. http://www.hometrack.co.uk/index.cfm?fusea...item&newsid=102 What are they smoking? Buyers last year didn't even pause for breath as IRs went up, they just kept on piling in. Now we are supposed to believe they are being savvy enough to take into account the general election here, or of a new pope. Personally I think election of a Nigerian pope would have seen house prices rising in Islington much more than a german. Yeah right. The post election bounce will be just like the one that
  9. Oh my god, living next door to Pompey, that's got to be my worst nightmare. I saw on TV recently that Pompey fans have the highest number of fans with facial tatoos in the premiership.
  10. In the absence of option 3, then it will have to be option 2. No chance of me losing my job! Option 3 would be complete economic armageddon, irate mortgage holders storm downing street, Gordon Brown ends up hanging from some piano wire in Parliament Square, Tony Blair has to escape in a helicopter and live in exile with George Bush (until Bush can invade to restore democracy), Kirsty and Phil are kicked to death by a mob of bankrupt BTLers, and John Wriglesworth dies allegedly in a failed attempt to reach the moon.
  11. What about early nineties, the Manic Street Preachers... Manics - Natwest-Barclays-Midlands-Lloyds Or the one in my sig, from the 70s, by Status Quo.
  12. Labour claimed in 1997 an "end to boom and bust" and specifically stated that they would avoid a housing boom and then bust. They didn't avoid the boom, that is plain to see. I wonder if they will avoid the bust? Its not looking very likely at the moment.
  13. I recall the bulls repeating over and over "soft landing", predicting (now quite laughable) that we'd see a "slowing" of house price inflation to a more "sustainable" 4-5% or so. But this didn't happen. The bears of course predicted 1) prices would stop rising 2) prices would start falling 3) mortage lending would drop off a cliff 4) sales volumes would fall dramatically. If we say that the market turned around June-July last year, we've seen falls of a few percent since then (according to Land Reg). Compare with the last house price crash and you'll see very similar falls for the same in
  14. This is the usual EA misinformation. If you go to the official government stats website (I think it is www.statistics.gov.uk) and I think the office of dep PM might have some of them too, you will find 1) population (including immigration) growth is very slow, less than 1% per year 2) housing stock is growing faster than population (new house builds which the lenders like to talk about are lower than in the 60s, 70s, but you had mass demolitions back then). The important figure is housing stock, not new building, and total stock is growing faster than population. Don't believe it? Check out
  15. Historically smaller lower end places see the largest falls during a crash or correction. At the end of a bubble the sheep pay as much as they can possibly borrow for absolutely anything they can get hold of - ie the cheapest properties. These are therefore normally more overvalued than other property during a boom, with the corresponding correction after the crash. As for normal negotiating margin, the house builders can still make a profit if they sell most new builds for 60% of what they actually go for. If you are only getting 10% discount in the current market, you aren't very good at ha
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