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1929crash

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Everything posted by 1929crash

  1. There's been a lot of talk about Camoron resigning, but what will Salmond do after today's No vote? Should he not go as well?
  2. It's funny that there have been no leaks from the Yes side claiming to be ahead in the postal vote. The postal votes are opened and verified before being put in the cupboard for counting on Thursday night. Even if these are opened face down the vote mark can often be detected from the other side. It's illegal to disclose the results of postal balloting before the full count but that hasn't stoppd leaks in the past. The silence from the Salmond camp on the postal vote is bad news for the Yes side.
  3. Funny you should bring up Daley's 'why Mitt is going to win' piece - Betfair says that the Yes camp has less likelihood of winning than did Mitt Romney, which is why they have already paid out on a No vote. The bulk of ths thread is, sadly, just a load of wishful thinking along the lines of 'why England is going to win big in Brazil.'.
  4. The bookies have already paid out on 'No.' The only systematic under-estimating by the pollsters is likely to be the 'Shy Noes' - a multitude boosted by intimidation from the Scottish fascistsyes camp.
  5. Certainly, in the Valleys part of Wales (which also had areferendum), voters were supporting the devolution side in the referendum because Tony Blair was in favour. Even so the No side were ahead all night until the very last county - Carmarthenshire - declared.
  6. 1.The bookies are an extremely good guide - and Betfair has already paid out to No voters. People may lie to pollsters but they wallets are sacrosanct. 2. The latest slew of polls show a lead for Yes, and they understate the amount of support for No because of the 'Shy No' phenomenon which can be linked to the nasty attitudes of many Yes voters. 3. If the City and the London government were in any doubt about the result, we would have seen some sort of 7/7 event designed to stir up British national feeling. Vote YES if you want - it will be No come Friday morning.
  7. How do you win a conflict in which you and your opponents die?
  8. I think the result tomorrow will be a solid 'No.' Perhaps more importantly, the Establishment thinks so too, because otherwise we would have seen some sort of ISIS 'incident' on the British mainland today.
  9. I saw Broon on the telly - good speech. I think he must have pumped himself up with crystal meth.
  10. "No" will win - there will be a fall in gold prices on friday, while sterling and gilts will have a good day.
  11. The projected total postal vote is that 85% of them will have voted - and if only 20% are voting by post, that is not high. In the May elections not far off 40% of votes were by post.
  12. But we've had devolved government since 1999 - how long will Westminster continue to get the blame?
  13. I think people are underestimating the significanced of Betfair paying out on a No vote. They are ignoring the avarice of the bookies and also the past record of the bookies in predictive accuracy.
  14. You're wasting your breath IRRO - the Yes-sirs will simply not answer your legitimate questions.
  15. What is not often appreciated is that even if the Americans succeeded with a first strike and prevented any Russian nuclear retaliation, the amount of dust, smoke and fire thus generated would be sufficient to kick off a nuclear winter in which the Americans would all die.
  16. Yes, but if Clegg made a promise, it means the opposite will happen.
  17. I think the political betting is pretty convincing evidence that the No camp are going to win on Thursday. However, if there is going to be any vote rigging, the obvious area of vulnerability lies in the postal voting. Since the law was changed in around 2000 to allow postal voting on demand, the number of fraudulent elections has increased. Aside from whether postal ballots are being sent out to voters who actually exist and are filled in by them, there is the question of ballot security at local authorities. When polling stations close, the ballot boxes are sealed with a special seal that makes it clear whether they have been opened or tampered with before the official count. That guarantee against fraud does note exist in the case of postal votes. In most local councils, they are opened face down - thus stopping scrutineers from getting any sense of how the voting has gone - and the ballots are then locked away in a room to which many people have access in the two weeks leading up to polling day. Considering that 40% of ballots are postal, this allows for rigging on a large scale.
  18. Indeed. Although the whole idea of independence is IMHO misguided at best, maybe the one good thing to emerge from this whole sorry business will be a much greater awareness of how much the British State Broadcasting Corporation puts out is pure BS.
  19. The Chinese have a curse: 'May you live in interesting times.'
  20. The ICM poll - on a small sample size - is an outlier. The other six polls show a solid lead for the No camp. It's all over for the gnats.
  21. How would a Yes vote break the relationship between the City and Scottish politicians?
  22. Most people start at post #1 but subsidy junkies get to start at #277.
  23. It should be made a crime to assist in paying for the British State Broadcasting Corporation. A man successfully argued this in one of Surrey's magistrates' courts last year - he said that since the Corporation knew in advance of the collapse of WTC-7 in New York, they were complicit in terrorism and therefore paying the licence was contrary to the Terrorism Act.
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