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rex

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Everything posted by rex

  1. am also watching east devon across to bridport. I think we need to be careful about what market levels we are looking at, because I think the pace of change is different at different price brackets. I've seen quite alot of activity over Dorset borders (eg Lyme) in the 400-500k category, but as soon as you go over that threshold nothing is changing price at all from what I an see (with one notable exception in Lyme where one price dropped last week from 995k to 825k - its been on the market for quite a while now)
  2. An awful lot of what is said in the press about PFI is utter rubbish, because most journalists don't understand PFI. You wouldn't get a half built hospital because bank credit has dried up. Once a deal completes, the lender "books" that debt in readiness for it being drawn down over the next 18 month period (ie as the construction of the building rolls out). The bank might run out of available credit for future deals, but not for a deal where the project documents has been signed and the debt booked. They wouldn't start to build the hospital until the docs have been signed and the debt booked. OK, the bank might go bust mid way through the construction of the hospital, but we're not talking about high street banks here that lend money for resi mortgages - many of these PFI banks are highly conservative outfits, which is why they are able to keep lending in the current climate; they were not as exposed to sub-prime securitisations as others. And as for off balance sheet, well a number of them aren't off balance sheet any more. They changed the accounting rules and that changed the manner in which one calculates whether or not a PFI project is off balance sheet; although I don't think they have yet worked out which ones are now on balance sheet and which ones are off; I believe it comes down to an assessment of the extent to which risk has been passed to the private sector, on a deal by deal basis. The off balance sheet status isn't really the main driver anymore for putting a project through the PFI process however.
  3. PFI stands for the private finance initiative. The banking crisis has not led to PFI descending into a farce. There is just less available bank cash around at the moment so that the lenders that ARE still able to lend (about 5 or 6 banks in the UK market and EIB now coming into the market more than it did before to help make up the shortfall) cannot do everything at once so the pipeline has had to slow down. The 5 or 6 banks that are still able to lend into PFI (and in fact,prioritising lending into this market over other markets) are working flat out trying to finalise negotiating all the current deals and move onto the next lot. The bank market in UK PFI was never that big a pool in the first place; it was an arena for specialist lenders; not high street banks. These remaining PFI banks are currently working like dogs and even recruiting new bankers into their teams to help cope with the demand. For example, a big roads deal completed in Scotland last week, the M25 expansion is limping towards completion as well as the multi-billion pound manchester waste pfi deal - these latter two are indeed limping, but that's because the deals are so big that dozens of banks from across UK and Europe are needed to fund them, rather than, for example, a £80 million project which just needs one or two banks. Smaller PFI deals in the range of £20-60 million apiece are moving forward without delay because many of them need only one bank lender - these include, among other things, street lighting, police stations and fire stations. The PFI hospital deals have been a mess for years, since way before the credit crunch - the DoH simply ran out of money about 3 years ago to fund the large acute hospitals and had to cancel the entire programme. But the smaller community hospitals are still going through the PFI process (or the LIFT process, which is similar to PFI but a little different). The advantage of PFI to the Govt is simply that it enables the Govt to pay for 10 schools to be built today, rather than paying for one school to be built per year over the next 10 years (I am only using schools as an example; I don't want to get dragged into a debate over the value of the separate BSF programme (part of which is PFI and part of which is not). So rather than pay up front today, you pay a much smaller amount today but you stagger your payments over the next 25 years. But as a funding concept it wasn't actually developed for a developed country like the UK; it is based upon the purer principle of project finance which has been around since the 1960's and was aimed at financing the building of large scale infrastructure in undeveloped countries. I've worked in that industry for 15 years, only getting involved in UK PFI in the last few years.
  4. now thats the drop i want to see. 895 - 600 and id buy. Unfortunately they wont do it on the house i want. But a house in West Dorset has jut dropped this week from 995k to 825k which i'm delighted about. It mean the drops are starting to happening at the higher end of the market in my areas ....
  5. ah hah. Maybe why I keep getting confused. I stumbled onto this thread a while back by accident, and I keep forgetting you are all talking about Northern Ireland. I'm in Devon. It would be great if there were an equivalent to this Domestic Capital Value calculator for England ....
  6. Yes, to add to the posts of others, Iceland only acts as a site for the aluminium processing from the raw materials. There are two main smelter plants out there and i spend an inordinate amount of time structuring the deal for one of them. The reason why they are there is simply that aluminium smelter plants are VERY environmentally unfriendly so there are few places in the world where you can get away with building them. The Icelanders themselves are not running these projects (Norwegians are mainly) - the Govt is simply allowing them to be built there for a fee, and hidden away in the sparsely populated eastern/northern fringes - everything for the processing comes in from somewhere else in the world (and so the Icelandic Govt gets harbour fees etc). Middle East deserts are becoming popular for them too, but a bit of a problem with the heat out there and how it impact on the smelter technologies, some of which are not long term tested ....
  7. We are in exactly the same position too, emotionally. Haven't quite picked up what DCV means, but we offered 30% off April 2008 price (which I think was an ambitious price based on a house tart up job (but without addressing things like 40 year old electrics ...). Owners not even interested in negotiating. Have reminded them of our offer a few times over the last 4 months, most recently last week. They are not interested. We just have to emotionally remove ourselves from the house and look to the future - something as big as this could have a huge impact on the rest of your life - the amount of debt you take on; how many years it will take to pay it off; your job flexibility in terms of whether you could afford to take early retirement / less demanding job on less salary etc. But it is difficult, I know.
  8. OK, so whats a SWMBO - i just focus on management buy outs - but i guess this has something to do with a wife who has more control over life decisions that you?
  9. The irony is, from some banks' perspective, its the safest form of lending now. Provided the due diligence on the underlying contracts are carried out competently (and therein lies the crutch - this is not corporate based lending; recourse to the public sector is entirely dependent upon some pretty complicated contract drafting), this form of debt is more risk averse than blue chip lending. Some banks are closing down corporate credit lines and rediverting to PFI and project finance (the latter being the derivative of PFI). Bu dont forget - if the Borrower fails the Banks lose too - I think the last PFI deal to fail in around 2006 led to a £20 million hit for the lenders.
  10. You might want to post the original comment here too - then we can consider and respond. Lots of Exeter based posters on here .... In fact alot of them seem to spend alot of their time on the Cornwall region boards sl*gging off the Cornish as much as possible. Who knows, have a drink or two and you could have a fine old time on that board too.
  11. I am watching the West Dorset area and have similar experiences to other Dorset posts above. ie little movement in house prices; alot of very expensive stock been on the market since early 2008 at 2007 prices. Made an offer in West Dorset but owners not even interested in negotiating with me ... Very little coming onto the market at my price level (over 500k)
  12. This is where I think we are at present. As I have posted elsewhere, I am simply not seeing price drops yet in Devon in the over 800k bracket and my full cash offers (at 30% off) are being rebuffed every time. They are not even interested in haggling with me; they just tell me to go away. And two of the houses in my shortlist of 3 have sold (ie completed) in the last 3 months (one of them completing today). Im hoping it will filter up gradually because I am really seeing a split approach in the economy so far.
  13. "nob" isn't a word that i have ever used before. But in this case, to join the majority, yes, I agree the OP is a nob. Mr/s what ever your name is, there is a number of us who have found ourselves in a fortunate position for selling at the right time and can make a good deal in the future; but that does not mean we make offensive remarks about honest workers who have lost their jobs and might not have been earning enough before to save up several months' worth of earnings for a rainy day. Quite frankly, we must have some sympathy.
  14. Yes, the movement is not happening in my area in my price range, yet. Either I believe that it will come within the next year or, occasionally, when thinking of my paintings wrapped up in storage, I wonder whether I, and the rest of you, have lost the plot. Either way, the last knock-back on my house offer means that I am now resolved to renting until at least end 2009 to find out. Unfortunately because the interest income on our cash in the bank is shortly about to be hammered (from a healthy 12 month Northern Rock fixed rate of 6% with monthly interest payable, to probably next to nothing), we are planning on moving to a new rental property to reduce the current £2300pcm rent entered into in April this year (at a time when we thought interest income actually gave you a reliable income stream, unlike today) .... it'll probably cost us another small fortune to move as well .... yes, I am utterly f*cked off with the whole thing.
  15. One of the main reasons for that was simply that the credit crunch meant that lots of banks had to pull out of PFI deals that were approaching financial close. There is a queue of deals out there at the moment that are gradually lining up to complete over the next couple of months as the credit freeze slowly eases and bank groups reassemble to fund. There is a huge appetite for pfi debt still - but the pfi bank market shrunk massively last year.
  16. And by the way, yes I know they are only "asking prices", and yes I am making offers. And yes, they are being rejected without even an interest in negotiating price. And that's in the circumstance of a full cash offer. I am resigned, very reluctantly, to renting for at least another 12 months.
  17. I agree with Sealaw. No idea where he lives, but you have to look not only at area but also at price bracket. Ive been renting since March now. I hate it, I want to buy for a purely emotive reason. But you try buying a house in East Devon with a roughly 800k - 900k asking price for a 30% discount. Come to that, try even 20% discount. You have to consider the price brackets that people are looking in, because it certainly is not all happening at the same pace. I only wish it was.
  18. I don't think this is necessarily a "trend". I re-iterated my "30% off early 2008 peak price" offer last week to an EA in respect of the property I last offered on in October. Still a flat rejection from the owner, without even any interest in negotiating.
  19. I have seen a few houses in Devon following this ploy over the last 4-5 months - take it off the market for a few weeks then put it back on for 25-50k more. Property-bee loses the link so the price increase isn't tracked. I interpreted it as sellers realising they would only get a low offer, so they inflate the price to get closer to the sale price they really want.
  20. yes, im interested to hear answer to this too. I want to buy a second hand 25 'ish' foot motor cruiser, like a salpa laver 25.5 or a sealine s23; spending 30-40k. I thought this winter would offer some good bargains in the second hand market, but I haven't seen much yet. Any broad brush views on boat "correction" levels?
  21. 4.5 times joint income. Cited a two yr fix for about 4.84 % (£1999 arrangement fee), or a 3 yr fix for a little bit higher interest, but still less than 5%. It said something about these interest rate only being available for loans over 500k.
  22. Clutching at straws, I suppose one should be pleased that you are sufficiently passionate about the subject to go so far as even leaving me offensive posts in my personal profile. I hope you come to terms with your anger. What am I doing in Devon? Well, I can't get home to Cornwall professionally, and instead I'm investing the vast amount of money I made in London, and attracting large amounts of investment from elsewhere in the UK and abroad, down to Devon. Yes, I'd rather be the other side of the Tamar too - I'm with you there; Devon is a lovely place; but I'm Cornish. By the way, "Grockle" is not a Cornish term - only emmit is; Grockle is the Devonian equivalent - so even the Devonians have a derogatory term for non-locals; I suppose you could say that a Cornish person is a Grockle to a Devonian, given that its real meaning is outsider, not holiday-maker The EU, and its cash, is a thorny subject. If we didn't have the EU and its fishery policies in the first place, then maybe Cornwall would be less dependent on the Objective One cash and the tourists in the first place.
  23. I agree.I have seen a number of what are clearly "City banker second homes" going on the market since the Lehman Bros collapse in South Devon and Cornwall. Having spent the last 15 year working in London in finance, I know alot of these bankers and they are telling me that there is carnage going on up there. Bonuses cancelled; they're just working to hang onto their jobs - these are people who typically earn around 500k - 1 mill a year - exactly the sort of people who have been underpinning the second home market in Cornwall
  24. people who aren't Cornish should really only go on holiday down there in the summertime. Yes, it is utterly bleak in the winter and yes, the Cornish keep to themselves - you can throw whatever insults you like by way of explanation for that insularity, but the fact remains. The Cornish are not affable yokels - they are suspicious, hostile, proud and unfriendly to outsiders. Even the Romans didn't try to settle any further down than Devon - they thought the Celts were savages. So, to keep it simple, don't even try to live there - let prices settle back down to what the locals can afford, because they don't want to take the cash and move somewhere else anyway - they'd have to live with a bunch of emmits then. Let them just pretend to be nice to you in the summertime and go away with a pleasant memory.
  25. samgsung nc10 supposed to be the best netbook around right now in its price range (around 300). Its supposed to pick up on all the niggles wrong with the other netbooks on the market - it only came out in around november. Uses Windows XP.
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