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Everything posted by rex

  1. You might have hit the nail on the head there ...
  2. There are some interesting things happening right now. Speaking as a lawyer (albeit not a property lawyer), I agree that there are more house sales - I am told this by our team of residential property lawyers. However, they are saying that alot of these sales are repossessions, and most of those repossessions are from one particular bank. I wonder how many more sales are "non "Bank X" repossessions but the owners are so close to that point because Bank X is pushing them to it, that they are having to fire-sale". These would all be, I suspect, houses in the region of 100k-300k. In addition to that, I am seeing alot of the properties that I have been watching for many, many months, suddenly starting to drop their asking prices in the last 2 weeks - not huge drops (ie around 5-8% off properties worth 700-950k), but it seems to be an acknowledgement. Interesting that they are doing this at exactly the same time as the Halifax figures coming out. I conclude this to mean that even the EAs don't believe the hype, they are still telling sellers to drop their prices, and the sellers are beginning to accept the situation.
  3. somewhere between september 09 and (more likely) Feb 10. My problem is that there is nothing on the market that I would want to buy, even if house prices were low enough. I think alot of decent stock is being kept back in the hope that the market will bounce back up. So i will have to wait for the bottom, and then for sellers to accept that its the bottom and that life has moved on, before something hits the market that i actually want to buy.
  4. +1. This thread makes people on this forum sound exactly like Sibley's description
  5. http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/jan/2...ority-mortgages and a further article from the times this month as well, as follows http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/pro...icle5649223.ece
  6. I dont have the ability to start a new topic I think, but I wonder if you have all seen the newspaper reports this week saying that the local authorities are thinking of getting back into residential mortgage lending, to try to help unstick the housing market. They reckon, apparently, that they will be able to get cheaper money on the wholesale markets because of their triple A credit rating and so they can offer cheaper mortgages, at higher gearing levels, for longer terms than the bank market current can. The articles (Guardian and Telegraph I think), mentioned some specific councils who are said to be interested in "helping". Seems madness to me. Apparently local authorities used to do alot of resi mortgage lending back in the early 80's.
  7. I think the problem with the "des res" is that they tend to be more sticky on the downward route. THe people who own them may be older, with more equity in the house and are in less of a "must sell" mode, so they think they can wait out the "price dip". Having said all that, I'm finally beginning to see some price movement in the des res' that I am watching - not alot (maybe 5% from early 2008), but its a start; its an acknowledgement that they, their house and their area are not immune
  8. The arguments on this thread follow a similar vein to saying that the condition of the Native American is the fault of the entire English population because, if they had all stopped and thought about it, they would have known that, by expanding into America where there is already a native community in situ, this would of course lead to the subjugation of the native population to the raging English hordes. And so even the cobbler on the corner of Threadneedle Street in the 18th century is to blame for the pervasive alcoholism of the Native American on his ever decreasing "reserves" in present day society. Yup. A barmy argument in many, many respects. But so is alot of what has been said above. People are massively over-generalising: people are on a witch-hunt: people are targeting something they understand very little about. Many people are directing the standard insult - "they must be stupid" - without considering the massive over-generalisations they themselves are making here. Witch-hunt? Drown her now.
  9. This makes me laugh. I have many fond memories of the pot smoking hippies and their annual attacks on City institutions, as well as the bankers' and traders' typical enjoyment of throwing missiles at said hippies from upstairs windows of offices, shortly before they decamp to nearby champagne bars to have a drinking competition and clear case of pink champagne by 3pm. Oh the happy days of the 90's; the noughties brought in a new world for them. It is indeed a different world there now.
  10. Nothing wrong with securitising debt. No, blame the first person who bought that securitised debt package without carrying out sufficient due diligence on the risk profile of the underling asset; that's where its all fallen apart - no-one knows what they've been buying any more. The way in which this all happened is that globalisation, competition and the sheer weight of business kicked in to such a degree that many bank sectors stopped carrying out the full risk analysis on debt packages that they would have carried out up to the mid to late 90's, and there was insufficient regulation in place to create backstop against the pressures of competition. Whether that's just the bankers' faults, or really all of our faults combined, is anther matter. And you cannot brand "bankers" as a single combined pack - one of the reasons why my area, project finance and PFI, is so damned expensive is because these projects are subjected to so much risk analysis by the bankers, lawyers, accountants, technical advisers, insurance advisers and environmental advisers who specialise in these projects - all trying to ensure that every single possible risk that you could imagine is covered off. Yes its expensive, but in one sense you could argue that its now old fashioned lending principles (which is a bit of a volte face from traditional views of project finance and PFI). In plain vanilla lending bankers came under pressure to cut costs in order to be more competitive, and that cost cutting ended up being the risk analysis aspects; we made them more competitive. Actually, over the last 10 years, an awful lot of Far Eastern money looking for a home.
  11. yup. i'm off to file my toe-nails. They are so hobbit-like that it'll probably take a few hours to grind the horns down.
  12. The Bank of England keeps a very close eye on this index. I attend their quarterly regional meetings and they are always telling us that the baltic dry index is the pulse of the world economy, and throwing up graphs of its progress. EDIT _ They also tell us to watch the waterline of the ships - ie how deep they are in the water. They say that what is moving has got hardly anything in it. There was a related TV news article on this point in the South West a couple of weeks ago - they were talking about how the river Fal is filling up with massive container ships and explaining that this estuary is one of the places where the international container ships get long term moth-balled - it was very bizarre seeing the size of these vessels lined up next to each other. Truro harbour master was saying that the last time he saw so many vessels mothballed in the estuary was in the 1960's (I think he said the 60's - they showed an old black and white clip of the ships lined up back then).
  13. I would rather hope to have bought a house by that stage - you're not expecting to see interest rates at 10% within the next 2 years are you?
  14. i don't actually have a similar sense of humour. He doesn't make me laugh. He just gets in the way of an efficient fact finding mission with regard to what the latest news is, what people's views on that are and what people's experiences are. I used to accept him as a genuine bull and I listened to his views. His statements now are clearly not worth the pixels they are written on and they simply litter up the site. I can only assume that this is an otherwise "retiring" member of the forum who feels the need to have an alter-ego that can burst out of the skin of the pathetic shrivelled being that he otherwise is. No doubt the sort of person I would want to walk over in life.
  15. I made just this same point on 31 December. People don't seem to appreciate that "grockle" has nothing to do with Cornwall. I also think it is a great shame about the tone of this thread. What seems to be argued against in many instances is the fact that Cornish are in fact a different race to the English (ie they are Celts just like the Welsh and the Scots, albeit being more closely linked to, and looking like, the Brittany Celts - just look how many dark haired people there are in Cornwall; up country, everyone assumes I am spanish or italian), with their own national identity and desires for self-determination (again, just like the Welsh and the Scots). But I'm not sure there is a thread on this site directing such venom towards the Welsh and the Scots as on this thread. The arguments are deliberately offensive against the Cornish. I won't get involved in silly slanging matches with people, because I have something better to do in my life, like filing my toe-nails, but I think people should try to appreciate local conditions, local ancestry and how similar that is to other indigenous inhabitants of the UK (like Wales and Scotland ......)
  16. I think different agents have different mind sets. When we sold our house early last year, the first EA we used wanted us to drop our price significantly after a few months. We ended up moving to a new EA (for different reasons); the new EA said no, don't drop price - I'll find you a buyer; his approach was that if you drop the price, you'll still end up getting a low offer on asking price, so might as well keep asking price as it is, and then leave EA to reel in a buyer making them think they are getting a great bargain (having privately persuaded the seller of the price that they realistically need to accept). We ended up selling for more than the original EA wanted us to drop our price to. I agree with the second EA's views of the psychology of the masses - everyone wants to feel like they have wangled a great deal. I sees signs of this differing approach in my local market. Certain EAs down here haven't got anything selling at all, whereas one in particular seems to have them flying off the shelves at all price levels. The asking prices at this EA don't look particularly low, so I can only conclude that this EA is persuading their sellers to accept much lower offers privately - I keep on meaning to go in and see this EA to try to work out what they are doing that is different to the rest. There is definitely something going on with them.
  17. BMW don't have ESP. They have DSC (Dynamic stability Control) as well a a host of other things that I'm not really an expert on. All I know is that I absolutely love my BMW z4; never had a a car I loved so much; on way home from work last night wheels lost grip on a steep country road covered in snow (the snow came in suddenly late afternoon) - I think it was the DSC that kicked in and all of a sudden my car just took over, I felt this huge power surge going forward, and I had control again. It was great. Love it. Getting used to rear wheel drive is a bit weird though - the car is alot more skittish on bumpy roads than anything I've driven before. EDIT - or maybe it was "dynamic traction control" that pushed me forward - there's so many safety features on the car using all sorts of different acronyms
  18. NO snow in the South West. The sun is shining with blue skies down here - that's why all the Met Office people are still busily working away - they're next door to me. I've even had to draw the blinds down to block out the sunlight - its pretty strong. Quite frustrating really - it would be great to be caught up in the siege mentality along with the rest of you.
  19. I agree with the general inflation sentiment, and my concern is to make sure that I find a house that I like before inflation kicks in and erodes my cash value (as opposed to just buying any old crap in a panic because serious inflation is kicking in). The question is how soon will it kick in. There is an argument going on on this point in one of the other threads. My worst fear is that the bottom of the market is called, Nationwide and Halifax start reporting price increases again, and all those bl**dy houses that I have been watching over the last 12 months, which never dropped their prices in the first place, start claiming that they are now in a rising market and they are entitled to increase their price, not reduce it (or they hope that buyers simply don't notice) ....
  20. Same in East Devon / West Dorset. I suspect vendors will sit tight if they can until Spring in the hope of a Spring Bounce, and maybe shave a bit off the price just before Easter ..... I'm resigned to the likelihood that we'll just have to keep renting until 2010.
  21. thanks. I've always been a bit of a Philistine (I suppose you're going to tell me now that I've used another incorrect analogy ...)
  22. would love to live in west devon but our careers are stretched out in two very different places - east devon/west dorset is about the only place we can live without needing to buy a second home for one of us to live in Mon-Fri. And we're only looking at those prices in the expectation that we'll get 30% odiscount off them ....
  23. Most of the properties I am watching there have been on the market since at least last Spring, if not earlier - Hot SUmmer Bounce didn't seem to help them last so can't see why it would be different this year. OK, last summer wasn't great, but May was good - I was hurtling around Lyme Bay on a 21 foot rib ..... Sara11 - where are you based?
  24. Fair enough. I dont think im looking in your bracket - simply cannot find a cottage as you describe that close to the beach ... We are actually moving into a new rental in Lyme in 3 weeks time so we can live there for 6 months and reach final decision on whether we want to buy there. Hopefully in meantime, the Lyme vendors will experience a damacles conversion... The problem with Lyme is that most of the vendors think their house is "special" because they [all] have views of the sea. That's why the price drop on the 10 bedroomed house is so exciting - a chink in the Lyme armour. I agree that particular house is very impractical.
  25. bet you i could beat you, depending on price bracket .....
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