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House Price Crash Forum

rex

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Everything posted by rex

  1. I'm sensing something too. A number of houses that I have been watching for a very long time have suddenly started dropping their prices in the last 3 or 4 days, even with EA's who historically have been the type to recommend that the clients don't change their asking prices. I suspect the spring bounce is not panning out as they hoped. When is the "spring bounce" supposed to start and end anyway - when are we into the "oh we're now facing the dead summer period" window?
  2. DC, you're worrying me. You already told me you wanted me dead last night, which I put down to a few beers on a Friday night and I sent a light hearted response this morning. Now, at 2.45pm in the afternoon, you're still taunting me for my address. If this is more than continuing beers throughout the weekend then I'd like you to PM me your phone number so that we can discuss directly. By way of aside i don't "espouse the virtue of" and I never said that. I think it a highly unfortunate fact of life that this is the world we live in.
  3. Thanks DC. This is the sort of plain speaking language I respect. Death to you too, 'an all that. Haarrr :-) You are still talking tripe. How does a certain line of logic need to link the above three sentences together. How does me launching a return attack on your insults need to have any sort of logical correspondence with a separate post I made earlier? And just because you don't agree with a certain point of view, doesn't mean that the person who made them is an idiot. It brings me back to my view of man. I don't see myself as a psychopath; I just have a very low opinion of my fellow man and his motives. Some poster mentioned something along the lines of intelligence raising us above the benchmark of pure selfishness; if all men were as such, then great: but unfortunately alot of men haven't quite passed through that magic benchmark. And I use the term "men" loosely - I'm not launching an attack of the sexes here.
  4. So far on this thread, you've called me an idiot and a psychopath. Further on in the thread you start mentioning sociopaths, and keep referring to morality. I haven't actually seen an intelligent argument; just a load of insults and emotive words, possibly bordering on religion. You aren't a Mormon are you?
  5. This is my point. Individuals, and individuals organisations, were just doing what comes naturally to them. We cannot assume a higher morality in individual man over and above other individual animals on this planet; it doesn't matter that we are simply smarter or worship a god in the sky. What sets us apart, however, is our combined choice to appoint politicians and governments to override our individual desires and put in place rules for the greater good of all. Bankers have not failed - they've done, exceedingly well for them (until recently), what they were programmed to do. They did better in life than many others. Our appointed representatives have not. I am not a banker.
  6. This is my point. Individuals, and individuals organisations, were just doing what comes naturally to them. We cannot assume a higher morality in individual man over and above other individual animals on this planet; it doesn't matter that we are simply smarter or worship a god in the sky. What sets us apart, however, is our combined choice to appoint politicians and governments to override our individual desires and put in place rules for the greater good of all. Bankers have not failed - they've done, exceedingly well for them (until recently), what they were programmed to do. Our appointed representatives have not. I am not a banker.
  7. Funny. I did a degree in, among other things, politics. Got a First Class Hons degree in it. What I have stated is a key view of many political theorists dating back to at least the 19th century. Look up Rousseau and the general will versus the will of all. Not sure anyone called him a psychopath too. This is "man" mate. Its crazy castigating individuals for doing what comes naturally. The class which should be blamed is a general class of people who is tasked with protecting the rights of all, not just the individual.
  8. I don't understand comments like. Take this back to basic principles. We are all animals. Without rules and regulations in life we would revert to base and kill or be killed, conquer or be conquered. Your "buy to let brigade" have just been doing what comes naturally to man - put themselves in the best possible position in life as compared to anyone else, and sod the rest. We are not natural "do-gooders" acting for the greater good of all. In fact the "do-gooders" when compared to how other species act, are probably the abnormal ones. If I had to kill in order to live I would; if I had to beat some-one else down in order to make a buck, I would. I want to survive. Lucky One has nothing to apologise to anyone for. Life sucks and the losers tend to fail sooner.
  9. Yup, they haven't quite gone that way in this part of the world yet..... Apparently its got something to do with the water Olympics in 3 years time .....
  10. I'm no economist, but isn't stagflation an option, where you have, for example, a stagnating housing market and inflation elsewhere. I don't see how inflation will do anything for the housing market in the current climate. At least I hope not, otherwise I'll have to dive in any buy any old crap.
  11. DLA are essentially a uk focused legal firm I believe. So a uk involvement is likely. (EDIT: NOT ACTUALLY TRUE - THEY CLAIM THEY ARE GLOBAL) DLA used to be Dibb Lupton Allsop, a "Northern" regional UK based lawfirm. They grew quite rapidly and were then taken over by a US law firm a few years ago. Hence the claim to be global. However, the UK ops are just that - UK, with a bit of messing around in the Middle East. They haven't a clue what is going on in the US - the US arm of the Firm doesn't appear to share much/any info with the UK branch. So, if the leak is real (and the rollonfriday transcript certainly suggests so - its a regular leak website for the legal world; the leak came off the back of a nasty redundancy programme announcement), then there must be a strong UK angle.
  12. But is that right? Yes, everyone is now expecting inflation to kick in sooner or later, and interest rates to shoot up. But is it a corollary of that position for house prices to rise again? Can we not be in an inflationary environment with continuing dropping house prices???
  13. if their profits are down by 90%, I guess I must be propping up the remaining 10% based on the £250 tyre they made me buy from them yesterday, whilst holding my car to ransom over an MOT. If I'd bought the second tyre for £250 that they "strongly recommended" i buy, they'd probably have their profits heading up towards 90% again.
  14. You must be a really sad b*stard in real life.
  15. I usually look at the Nationwide House Price calculator (on its website) to inflate a house price up the years based on an earlier sale price. Any reason why anyone would want to use something other than that Nationwide calculator?
  16. Sibley has made a key point in terms of understanding the mentality of many sellers. If they believe that the crash was caused by, and continues to be caused by, the banks' credit crunch and lack of mortgage finance then they will, if they can, hold onto their current prices believing that everything will return to normal once lending practices ease again. Which many think is only a few months away. I think this is why the market has not yet fully capitulated. The error in this view is that although the lack of liquidity may have started the problem, that has in turn led on to many, many more problems, which a return to bank liquidity will not solve: eg we are now in a world recession, thousands of people are losing their jobs and people no longer "believe" in the house price bubble - it popped.
  17. Yes, if: 1. The seller agrees that it will probably be worth 8k in a year; 2. the seller believes there is no reasonable likelihood that he will find another buyer in that time; and 3. the seller needs the money to keep afloat .... Bird in the hand then ....
  18. Absolutely yes. I think that's why we've been renting for a year now, and may well be renting for another year to come. They are under no financial pressure and have no real need sell. As long as they think the crash is a short term one which they can ride out, they will not drop their prices [substantially]. They need to accept that this is not a short term dip, but rather a long term price readjustment. They don't yet. Annoyingly, these are the people, however, who should find it the easiest to accept the new market standard. They can well afford to take the hit because they bought so long ago. And they've probably seen several crashes, so they should recognise a big one when they see one ......
  19. Hah. Small world. That particular house is not my sort of place; but the same EA in Honiton is indeed holding one that I am very interested in. If you're minded to go and give them a piece of advice on the state of the housing market, you can only help. They were banging onto me about Halifax's January figures last week, and that they've "never been busier" .....
  20. That is exactly right. There is a stand off. Plus certain EAs in this region (well, one in particular) seem to be trying to attract property onto their books by promising 2007/early 2008 prices to sellers. Look at, for example, the link, which came onto the market this week. I just don't see how a property like this can be worth a million in today's climate. And when you put offers in, the EAs don't even seem to be encouraging the sellers to try and haggle - it just a firm rejection with no interest in negotiating. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-21384316.html
  21. I do think many vendors are really trying to achieve 2007 prices in 2009. When I live - East Devon / West Dorset - in my "micro-market" (over 500k) very little is budging in price. I've been tracking it for a year now. There is the occasional 7% drop on the odd property, but nothing like 20%. In fact I am seeing a number of houses being brought back onto the market in the last few weeks at the same (or very near same) price that they were on the market for nearly a year ago (before they were withdrawn from market). These "majority" price drops of 20% must be happening in densely populated cities, because they are certainly not happening here, much is the pity. I don't think this is a question of a north/south divide as possibly suggested by another poster on this thread. I have heard that "poorer" areas, like Cornwall, are dropping faster however. Those of us that want to buy in supposedly more affluent areas may have a longer wait....
  22. This is wrong. The reason why the companies are struggling to raise finance is because the bank markets are seized up, not because the companies themselves are on the verge of going bust. Its not about keeping current projects on track; its about bringing new projects to the market so that the new schools etc can be built. The borrowing is needed to pay for the relevant infrastructure to be built, not to keep paying to maintain operational projects. And the reason why the Govt is thinking of "bailing them" out is because it thinks that this will help to limit the length of the recession. Ie spend us out of it. Credit ratings of the companies you talk about are largely irrelevant. PFI is limited recourse financing, so the money is lent to an empty shell vehicle with very little recourse to the "real" sponsor companies sitting behind it (ie an administrator of the shell vehivcle would have no access to the assets of the sponsor companies). THe banks "price" the deal (ie assess the risk) based on their due diligence of the documents and the project structure, not the credit rating of a sponsor company who is not the borrower. That is what defines a project financing, of which PFI is simply a variation - it is limited recourse
  23. I don't completely agree with this view. I want a home, not an investment. But if I buy "house x" that I want as a home today, I buy it with a 100k 10 year mortgage (particularly given that the properties I am looking at have not dropped anywhere near the prices drops that have supposedly happened so far). If I buy it in one year's time, I might be able to buy it with zero mortgage and the ability to lead a better quality life thereafter - ie more money for luxuries. That's why I'm holding back. The house is not an investment.
  24. link doesnt work. Try again. Im impressed with the one GBdamo posted though. Don't think you would get anything like that at that price in West Dorset ......
  25. Yes, for me it would be a no brainer IF I could buy a house now for 30% off peak and say to myself that I'm happy to take the hit on any additional downside because I'd have no mortgage. But I can't. Its just not happening in my sub-market. The place I've made that offer on (full cash, and most recently about 3 weeks ago), basically tells me every time that hell can freeze over before .... not even interesting in entering into a price negotiation. And I'm not convinced that its regularly happening anywhere else yet either.
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