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House Price Crash Forum


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About thehousealwayswins

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    HPC Poster
  1. Naughty blofield. At it again I see...
  2. I am in no way over stretched but I can tell you I am doing very nicely. I am also glad that you enjoy renting, that suits me just fine and I'm not going to argue with you to tell you otherwise!
  3. Yes agreed PP I would assume that the market would rise again within the next 10 years to make it worth it's while. You do need only a moderate rise to make it worth it. There probably are more bargains to be had as time passes on. The danger though if prices drop to the threshold you mention could be a second wave of frenzied buying (all dependent of whether banks will lend). A brighter note would be that Stamp duty wouldn't have to be paid on some of these. I don't think it will be long until the govt considers dropping stamp duty to help kickstart the housing market. You will need more than this though - as the bank of england has seen that decreasing IR's doesn't seem to have prompted banks to start lending properly.
  4. Glad to see you can now see what I am saying has been on the button. I would say these prices from the builder are approaching rock bottom shortly. I think he also might be one of the ones offering their own vintage of co-ownership. But with this mexican standoff buyers are not physically able to blink with the over-cautious bank lending. So in the special case of a builder needing to sell the prices may drop even further. PS Anyone thinking of buying a home to live in I wouldn't recommend Bushforde itself. The building work is not quality and snag lists don't get dealt with all that well etc
  5. Just to clarify these 120k houses were 'turnkey'. Interesting PP you mention the 7% return I'm assuming bonds? Must look into that. Yes there are some ancillary costs like water rates and fees. To be honest though I cannot see houses like those slipping much below 120K. So it would be a medium to long term view you would have to take. Over 10 years I would expect the 'house' investment to outstrip the 7% bond return - agreed though that the former has slightly more risk attached to it.
  6. Of course it is a wind up. Funny to some fools getting taken in though and spouting their venom haha There wouldn't be any clouded judgement in here at all...
  7. I'm getting about 3.5% on my very last property I bought so you are about bang on with your figures. You can reduce the 7% if you raise the funds another way. So the example I cited about two houses in antrim 120K each - rent is £550 - I predict will go to £600 per month next year. This would give you 5.5% yield in year one and 6% yield in year two. You do need to have equity in your portfolio and a level of cash - but this makes good business sense to some who meet that criteria. If you are walking in off the street the current BTL mortgages are too high to make it attractive yet.
  8. The point is that people will only stop spending when they start to feel their pockets hurting - THE EVIDENCE SHOWS THAT THEY ARE NOT HURTING. So you can choose to ignore this if you like. There isn't an oversupply. Even if there was a temporary additional number coming on over the last month or two - the fact that eastern europeans are taking most of them and builders have stopped building will be sure to make demand high for the near future. People WILL pay the higher rates because that is just the way it is. They will have to pay the going rate until they physically can't and have to move someone else in etc as you've described. Moving people in is not ideal in most circumstances and will only be a last resort. As we can see from consumer spending people have lots of spare cash and therefore increased rent will be paid. Remember the house always wins in the long run.
  9. The general public do not keep an eye on inflationary predictions so you comment is false. People have money this month and will continue to have surplus cash for the forseeable future. Rental increases will be the feedback loop in this falling housing market. Rising rents will ensure house prices have a bottom as IO mortgages and rents converge. This relationship is of course based on what happens with IR's (and more importantly LIBOR). Looking at mortgages today lenders are predicting further rate cuts. How quickly rents will rise will depend on - Whether people can afford the rises (with consumer spending up this is indicative they can) - How much demand outstrips supply (with continued high levels of inwards migration and drastic reduction of new builds this will ensure demand is high) Rising rents over the next number of years will be the saviour of the housing market.
  10. Do you really think that "ladies who lunch" out for a handbag and matching shoes are interested in inflationary predictions?
  11. Oh I'm sure you could work it out for yourself. Those properties could easily be rented out for around £550 pm. BTL and rent would be converged on those two properties.
  12. Just to clarify - So you do not think rents will decrease? You mean they will decrease by the nominal inflationary increase? Yes I understand it very well - you can't get a loan to rent etc etc People are still spending as you can see from the BBC link so there is plenty of money around. It's just this money will not be spent on houses in the next two years but on rent.
  13. As I have clearly stated before house price falls mean rent increases - so this will consolidate what I am saying. The link shows data from all over the UK reporting rises including NI. So have they got it wrong? Rent is up you can deny this all you want. Put your neck on the line and predict what you think will happen over the next 2 years in terms of rent. I predict rent will go up at least 7% yoy.
  14. See link at the top of the thread. Rent is on the up all over the UK with only a few residuals - Leeds etc Some on here seem very confused. Some say rent is purely related to wage inflation (so rent should increase) and other say that rent is going down due to them thinking there is oversupply. The truth is it is going up.
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