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House Price Crash Forum


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About mattn

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  1. Update: closed yesterday. 5 notes of interest and 5 offers. 2 10% below the offers around, and 3 about on the money within 5K of each other, of which 1 was accepted. Interestingly all were still subject to survey, as none of the mortgage lenders involved would accept the homebuyers report as an accurate valuation survey which seems to make a mockery of the whole thing to me..... My conclusion is that right now if the house is priced correctly and is in a desirable place, there will be a lot of interest. The HB report valuation will effectively cap the offers, but there are still some optimists out there. I am genuinely surprised, thinking we'll have to settle for 10% less than we got. However, I still think this is temporary and by the end of the year that 10% loss will be far worse. And to the chap telling us about Leith - I guess you'd be surprised to hear a friend sold his 3 bed in Leith back in March for the asking price, after only 2 weeks on the market....
  2. Mate, I told you, I'm on your side. I'm not excited, just surprised. Going to a close next week, so I'll report back for sure. FWIW anecdotally I have heard similar things of other property just now. If its at the right price (say 10-15% of what would have sold for 18 months ago) it will sell quickly now. As far as I'm concerned the buyers are nuts as the fundamentals are crap, but right here right now being a seller is not as bad a place as it should be....
  3. The first one - and it's not at the wrong end of Bruntsfield if you work in finance - 5 min walk to all the big shops. Home report available via ESPC rather than note of interest. No offers, but the chat I'm hearing from the daddies sounds like a little reversion to the old days - how much more than the offers around price do you want... Solicitor suggests striking while iron is hot, and I suspect a close will be set at the end of next week. I'll let you know what happens. As to an explanation I think that the fact that there are only 2 properties in Bruntsfield (one of which looks overpriced as you say) and if you were to widen the search you'll not find many 2 doubles (any?) in that price range in either Marchmont or Morningside. So I suspect it is a simple demand / supply equation with limited buyers but very limited supply. My suspicion is it will go for the offers around price - we'll find out next week I guess. I still think the fundamentals in Edinburgh are exceptionally poor and will lead to massive falls in the next 2-3 years. However, if someone else thinks differently and that property is cheap now, I'm more than happy for them to buy the wife's place!
  4. Mate, I'm on your side. I've no interest in bigging up the market - I'm just telling you how it is. While the wife is selling the flat she bought way before we met, we have STR our main property and are looking for a much bigger place in a year or two so HPC is totally on our wish-list, even at the expense of big hit on this property.
  5. Guys (and Gals), much as I hate to say it we are seeing a spring bounce in the 'burgh just now. My wife is selling her 2 bed flat in Bruntsfield - it's been rented for the last 2 years, and with junior on the way and potential margin calls in the future as we had to move it to a buy to let when we moved in together we can't be bothered to keep it.... It's on at offers around the amount that the surveyor valued it at for the home report. It went on ESPC on weds last week (15th April) and so far, she has had 26 individual viewings and a further 6 booked in for the next couple of days. 5 notes of interest already. I have to say I'm shocked. I suspect it's down to a lack of supply and a few daddies having £££ in the bank earning 0% interest with offspring heading to Edinburgh Uni. Me (and wifey) are convinced this is temporal, a bull trap if you will, and normal downward service will be resumed in a few months. I still think that by 2011 Edinburgh property will have dropped 50% from peak, but there is no arguing that right now the market is pretty hot. So, if in the last year you've been long and wrong, it's a good opportunity to get out without too much pain.....
  6. http://www.citylets.co.uk/aspx/details.asp...=66&footer= So, buy for £850k o/o, or let for £2k per month. Hmm. I'm sure the more rental yield minded amongst us can pass judgement on what the rental price suggests the true value of the house is?
  7. It seems to have bounced off some support at 3523 - just 3 points off Feb 1994. Would need to get to 2430 to take us back to July 1987 - seems a distinct possibility. Who'd have thought that a couple of years ago!
  8. So, the FTSE is nearly at the same level it was 15 years ago in Feb 1994. If one asset class could drop so dramatically how likely is it that another (although more politically sensitive and the one we live in) asset class could do this?
  9. I suspect that this is due to the new home reports. Every house for sale new to the market has to have one, and included in it is a valuation for mortgage purposes. Speaking to agents, it seems that none of them have (since they were introduced in Dec) ever seen a property sell for more than the valuation in the home report. Effectively this is putting a cap on sale prices, and anyone actually wanting to sell needs to make sure their asking price reflects this. I know of a couple of friends who have sold in the last month, each property was on the market for less than a month, and each sold for exactly the valuation in the home report. It is worth noting that in each case, the valuation was some 20% less than it would have been last year. Some people on this site seem frustrated that prices don't seem to be dropping. Well, transacted ones are. All the prices not dropping are the ones that won't sell and these prices are therefore totally irrelevant. Looking purely at transacted sales, Edinburgh property is down around 20% right now. That's not a bad start when you think this depression still has a couple of years to play out!
  10. Does that not mean that prices have dropped 20% from peak? I for one am quite happy with that. This process is nowhere near through and you have to walk before you can run......
  11. mattn

    Edinbugh Latest

    Typo I'm afraid. Now on at FP £295000
  12. http://www.countrywidepropertyauctions.co.uk have a scotland section
  13. mattn

    Edinbugh Latest

    Fingers crossed he's right - a fire-sale / auction of all their properties would cause mayhem in the new town property world! Does your man have any timescale on this? MN
  14. It's just as bad as down south, but it seems that sellers are in denial of that, therefore nothing is selling. Thus the indices can't reflect it. But ask any EA, or solicitor, or anyone selling, and you'll find out it's dire. New law is effectively Scottish HIPS. Thus any seller has to commission a survey, which will include the surveyors honest value of a property as far as any mortgage company is concerned. So, until recently Edinburgh sellers expected around a 25% premium over the asking price. Under the new system if you expected 25% over the valuation a buyer on a 75% LTV would need to have over 50% of the purchase price in cash. Very few will have this, and thus the surveyed value will have to become the 'offers around' rather than over price. It was seen as scandalous as it inspired EA's to encourage O/O's of 50% or more to ensure some poor sod managed to buy their dream house even though the next offer may be 15% less than the highest, and as the mortgage valuation invariably came back as the sale price it caused no problems with LTV, especially in the 100% mortgage days. Because house prices are a function of credit. The more money humans are given to spend on a scarce asset, the higher the price will go. And as invariably 90% or so of the money spent on a house was 'given' by a bank, we weren't worried about whether that was sustainable.Think of it this way - 80% of the value of our housing was bought by credit - your mortgage - so if the amount of credit drops by 65% (where we are now compared to last summer), then there is only enough credit to cover 30% of our peak house prices. Add the average of 20% equity that people have, then readjustments of around 50% become very realistic until/unless there is any increase in credit. It just takes a lot of time for that reality to filter through to the sheep. It may well be that there is an increase in credit before reality bites (2 years?) but FWIW I don't think there will be, so I forecast a 50% average UK drop, and Edinburgh will be hit hard. It's risen hugely in the last 8 years, with an overdependence on a financial sector that is rapidly shrinking. We're already seeing fairly uniform price drops of around 10% (sellers moving from o/o to fp that is o/o + 10%; if their original expectation was o/o +25% the prices are down) so I'd suggest the OP's original thesis/discussion point is wrong, both in empirical evidence and in any hypothesis you might want to bandy around. HTH M
  15. It's an exchange, so it allows people to bet with each other on their expectation of prices, rather than being any sort of prediction. And if you wanted to bet on the level of house prices end dec 2008 (in a negative way) you'd have to do so pricing in a drop of 22%.... HTH
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