betterToDo

Our neighbours suck. A couple living in the flat next door, much the same age as us, no reason we shouldn't at least get on. One week after we arrived I bumped into them as they came out of the front door. I nodded a greeting, she walked off looking at the floor. I turned to him and said "Hi!", smiling, expecting some sort of attempt at a friendly greeting in return.... "Just one point...", he started, and then launched into a lecture instructing me where he'd prefer me to park my car (there are too many spaces and its never over half full in 2 years), before walking off. Not even hello, didn't even introduce himself. I just stood there dumbfounded. I guess we must have unwittingly parked in their favourite space, no good louts that we are. I only know their names even now because I sometimes sort out the post.. Can see where reports like this are coming from.

Not, it would appear, in the case of houses.

I had to go back and check the date of this thread, I thought it must have been from 2008 or earlier. I prefer a definition of deflation describing a decrease in money supply *and* credit marked to market (I learned this from Mish after having foolishly wrestled with a load of other vague crap), and since the majority is credit (dont even think about it injin), that seems to me a rather more useful definition than referring to prices. Note the link between credit and sentiment. Under this definition, seeing anything other than a background of massive deflationary forces makes zero sense (note the term forces and a (possibly useful?) distinction between something moving and something being pushed) . What the hell do you think all the threat of defaults, public bailouts, debt crises, crashing oil, volatile stock markets, zero rates and QE have been about? Rampant inflation? And now halfway through 2010 the OP decides to come out and prophetically declare that we er.. "have" er.. "deflation"? I would suggest that trying to decide on some black and white inflation versus deflation outcome, looking for the magic answer that'll tell you where or when to invest your money, on the basis of short term CPI measures might just be a *dead end*. Enjoy chasing butterflies like RB ( ) (and by the way, highlighting the word deflation in the responses of a group of "experts", who's consensus has never been right since at least before this whole mess came to a head, could be considered by some as a pointless exercise in document editing). Because they have different definitions of what they're talking about, and when they try to generalise some over-simplified notion based on one particular price or measure, and then try and argue about it, it rapidly degenerates into an pointless spectacle of boundless human stupidity. There is not one thing with a price, there is not one single body of money, and there are all sorts of other things affecting a price, not least of which is pure unfettered sentiment (welcome to the global casino).

No, its just a well-known aspect of the human condition to which I observe, with a glorious sense of warm irony, you seem especially vulnerable. Never ever heard anyone make such a silly argument. Linky? Or .... Is that actually why *you* think people buy gold? Rubbish of course, but good post. Its the way you state nonsense with such confidence. Run for office or write a book, don't waste it on us. You mean prices can't rise when purchasing power falls? Prices are denominated in what, "purchasing power"? Fairy lights? I'm going for fairy lights. Right. Cool. So... what happens to an over-leveraged banking system in deflation, and what pressures does that put on a debt-based currency? If you notice any obstacles to your line of thought, just swerve round them as per usual. Or, use Injin's trick, and just restate the same thing repeatedly until everyone gives up. Really, so a wise man is someone who says "sometimes it doesn't just go down a bit, sometimes it goes down lots!" That is literally all that quote says. Literally. You really think that's wise?... and not only that, wise enough to quote?!?! Just for the sake of sanity, could you both offer your definition of deflation? I *think* RB defines inflation as price rises judging by the OP, although in literally the same thread then referred to that Rick Ackerman article as being about deflation, which appears to be referring to money supply.... so RB is undecided. Injin? Don't feel you have to stick to just one definition, feel free to ****** about with it a little, and remember to change it when we least expect it.

No, RB is an interested person who unfortunately only does extremely brief and cursory research, and then publishes sweeping generalisations and predictions on the back of simple headlines for the benefit of ego and what should rightly be our entertainment, although some take it a wee bit too seriously. Its unfair to single RB out, but that is the basic unavoidable truth. You'll find through random chance it will be possible to interpret some of the stuff RB says as right.. at some point in time anyway. Edit: That was harsh. I applaud anyone who attempts to make interesting observations, it all contributes to one's own view.

Mish

Define what it is then if its evil and you want it banned. The issue about what Goldman has been reported doing is, for example, not actually about HFT and is indeed "evil" in that they have a thoroughly unfair advantage in access to exchange information and execution, centred around seeing orders before they hit the market (and for that, blame the exchange). Their exploitation of this does come in the form of HFT if you like but that's besides the point. You might just be, like much of the press, confusing "evil nasty HFT" with automation in general, which comes in lots of different shapes and sizes, is inevitable, accessible, and by no means evil. Latency competition is centuries old (you've all heard the one about Nathan Rothschild and the battle of Waterloo no doubt) and exists whether you like it or not, so you might as well try and ban the sky from being blue.

The Big Race

..and the desire to minimise counterparty risk (including the BoE and the government as you said).

If they couldn't magic money out of thin air, that would prevent this shit. The BoE will never be able to set rates correctly to offer stability in this way, or very rarely. If you've ever controlled say a boat or a plane, you'll know what I mean by "over-pegging" - over correcting one way, then over correcting another. The BoE has a control system with terrible feedback that is littered with counter-productive motivations. They can't even agree where they should be going, let alone see where they're going, let alone know what inputs to put in (assuming they always have the best interests of the majority of the population at heart of course, rather than preservation of the banking cartel (cough) I mean system..) I would prefer a hard-backed currency, where the BoE acts more like a market-maker in terms of credit, with a large store of wealth (but limited wealth) that can be lent into downturns, against the flow of the market. Otherwise, the market should dictate. This would offer a self-governing system with "stabilisers".

And I love it. At the moment anyway. I couldn't enjoy much self-respect being bailed out every time I so much as take a dump. I dont intend to buy a pension. I'm just trying to price my old age into my spending, and I'm not sure how someone else is going to do that for me any better, tax issues aside. The various pension disasters around the world are evidence of what foolish promises are made. Believing you can leave anyone in charge of a big pot of your money for such a long time without getting ******ed over is, in my opinion, akin to believing in fairies. And yes, I deeply resent diamond-encrusted promises being given to public sector employees. Its coming out of my pocket. I'm sick of the "fully insured" culture. Guaranteed this! Guaranteed that! Agh! :angry: I'll offer a guarantee. I guarantee its a bunch of shite. So There!

Oh shit

It was mistaken as a new age, when what it actually is is the mechanisation of information management and distribution, which is slowly but surely making an extraordinarily large number of people completely redundant. Such reduction of waste is surely a good thing in the long run, but what these people are going to do instead is currently beyond me.

Like I said originally, your definition of force is black and white. It doesn't work that way, and you can't simply explain everything about the future to a kid one day and that be enough. Some things can only be learned through experience, and you don't get lots of goes at many things. Just the one. Spending less time on the problem would have been for them to say, "oh ****** it, let him screw up his own future, I'm more interested in spending time on what I want to do right now". It was an example to counter first your definition of force, and second to counter your assertion that it is always "wrong". Take it or leave it. I swore I'd never get suckered into any more nonsense arguments with you. I disagree with you, I've addressed your points, you've ignored mine. Same old same old. Feel free to grab the last word etc etc etc.

No, really, don't be sorry, it wasn't wrong. I was persuaded (sometimes easily, sometimes with difficulty). It turns out it was in my interests, and I'm eternally grateful to my parents. You have a strange definition of "wrong".

Try asking this "street" what a fiver is or where it comes from, or about the forces that govern its value. I've tried a few times. They may be content with it, but that doesn't mean they understand anything about it. Does that make it ok? I think you're thoroughly mistaken. What kind of system requires continuous growth to remain intact and is so brittle as to collapse in an instant? Was the "economy" sick, or was it a total mismatch between lending and risk driven by short-term gain, and enabled by a fudged monetary system? Man's nature is to be greedy given the opportunity, and sadly that means sooner or later someone will start screwing with money - it has always been so. I don't much believe in a gold-backed currency (or whatever) either because you could set it up, but the rules would subsequently be just as subject to manipulation as ever. You can't legislate against complete c****. I agree, but its not that black and white. You ignore that being persuaded over a lack of desire is not always a bad thing, and that force is just an extreme on a scale of levels of persuasion. For example, most kids left to their own devices likely won't choose to go to school, or go to the dentist etc etc. Neither would offer good eventual outcomes for them or others. I'm glad I was forced to do those things, but at the time, I often had to be forced/persuaded against my will.

I like Max Keiser's favoured term, Kleptocracy:

Thinking back now, I've realised what he actually means by "capitalism". He means the US Republican party.

Whats to enjoy? The ugly spectacle of greed and gullible ignorance, or the ensuing misery?

I agree with that bit at least. My cat always seems to be in a suspiciously good mood.

+1. He pours all the blame into this very convenient black hole vaguely entitled "capitalism". There were a few excellent sequences (the congress/goldman/paulson part, particularly liked the "fear" sequence with Bush). But.... ...The solution to foreclosures is not for a crowd to decide it's fate, much as I sympathised. It may have been "just" in this case, but you end up with a legal system run by the madness and emotion of crowds. The solution is to address the monetary and legal fiddling that is causing such misery, which he didn't dig into. He was distracted by the symptom, thereby doing more harm than good. ....Roosevelt's bill of rights illustrated as some holy grail that was snatched away. What complete crap. Right to a job? Right to a home? Shall we all hold hands in a circle and sing? I'd really like everyone to have a job and a home too. Why did noone think of that before? I shall write to my MP and suggest it. .... The spectacle of a priest deriding "capitalism" as a false belief supported by propaganda that took advantage of people... Oh the irony. That sequence was a true comedy classic. ....Obama painted as a god-like figure who could do no wrong, rather than offering an accurate account of his actions. He PICKED Geithner for crying out loud. .. but no, Obama was ring-fenced from criticism. ...Apparently, Europe is now the Promised Land. Wha-******ing-hey. The film accurately identified symptoms of a global malaise, but failed in so many other ways. His solution seemed to be to get rid of capitalism and replace it with free houses and jobs, to replace money with voting, and to set about the abolition of fear, greed, and gullibility from the human condition. For dessert, some much needed legislation against limited resources. All in all, a confused populist film muddying already muddy waters. He's a well intentioned but ignorant man with a child-like view of the world. Good at making films though. ... I'll shut up now. Thats a weight off, thanks

I don't know the first thing having never bought or sold a house, but I'm sure I've heard that spring is reputedly a good time to sell?

A worthwhile endeavour thank you for sharing it, I'm hoping to see the update in a few weeks!

You haven't distinguished between deficit and debt which might be useful.

The euro concerns were peaking for more than just a week, and if you look at the last month, you can see gold was surging heavily on it which counters your point - and with hindsight it looked very overbought. You choose to ignore that there may have been, for example, profit taking, or margin calls - both very reasonable alternatives (in my humble). You may of course be right, and personally I agree in terms of there being a drawback (not a collapse) near term along with oil, but I think its foolish to be so fully negative on the back of just one of many equally plausible explanations, especially when applied to such a short period of falls - hence the butterflies When I start seeing IRs rising in a significant way, or any sign of real growth returning, I'll start to agree with you. I currently cant see it, every CB and government financial weapon is firing in the opposite direction, unemployment continues to fester, "austerity" is the buzzword, and equities look as precarious as ever.