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The McGlashan

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Everything posted by The McGlashan

  1. Indeed it is. Formatine Mega City. We can only hope that the new attitude to development shown by the SSCI will permeate through to these new Formartine developments. From the Grandhome proposals: Fine words. In time, we'll see how they translate to action at ground level. (I'm really trying very hard not to by cynical. Let's hope we're not let down again.)
  2. Haylee Millar's personal exposure to the property market is ever evident in her continual transparent boosterism. I watched in slack-jawed awe at her vapid venality . Do Pacific Quay exercise no editorial control over that woman?
  3. Public consultation "Charette" underway at the AECC. http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/xev_EventDetail.asp?id=2611 The Scottish Sustainable Communities Initiative (SSCI) plans to build up to 7000 new homes to the North of Aberdeen. They have engaged the services of Planner/Architect Andres Duany, the guy who built the town used as the set for that Jim Carey film "The Truman Show". One of the published aims of the "Charette" is to "demonstrate that the delivery of high-quality sustainable forms of new development is achievable within reasonable timescales" and "serve as an inspiration to future development in Scotland." Charette whitepaper here: http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/nmsruntime/saveasdialog.asp?lID=28256&sID=2991 Well worth a read. The bid document from the Grandhome Trust which has won this backing from SSCI is here: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/212607/0083276.pdf I never thought I'd ever feel sort-of proud of our city fathers. This is the first time I've ever noticed them leading rather than following. Usually, on major planning issues, our local authority demonstrates that they tend to be 15-20 years behind the curve of best practice. 7000 new homes, though. Wow. How will that affect the balance of supply and demand? To ask the question is to answer it.
  4. You've no doubt heard on the news of a 'surprise' drop in unemployment. And yes, indeed the UK figure is down. However, looking at the ONS figures tells us Scots a more alarming tale. While unemployment in England is down by 56,000 on the quarter, in Scotland it has climbed by 16,000 unfortunates. Indeed, we can see that the JSA claimant count continues to rise steeply month on month in Aberdeen.
  5. You've no doubt heard on the news of a 'surprise' drop in unemployment. And yes, indeed the UK figure is down. However, looking at the ONS figures tells us Scots a more alarming tale. While unemployment in England is down by 56,000 on the quarter, in Scotland it has climbed by 16,000 unfortunates. Indeed, we can see that the JSA claimant count continues to rise steeply month on month in Edinburgh.
  6. Yes. So, 2.8% annual rise. Inflation 3.5%. Edinburgh Prices DOWN. FACT.
  7. Hi espc2 - that link resolves to a blank page - can you fix?
  8. I am perplexed by these differences as well. The two sets of figures do cover different periods They give an average Edinburgh price of £209,868 (volume of 485) for the month of January, £19k higher than the figure for the 28-day period between 20 Dec and 16 Jan, which they say has a bigger volume (507). As the 28-day sample period includes the weeks between Xmas and New Year, whereas the monthly sample period does not, and is bigger, I really can't work it out. My only observation is that the rolling 28-day figures have been subject to quite radical revision in the past, and appear with far lower frequency than the 'every Monday' which they promise. I've noticed that the monthly figures are also revised from time to time, but not as radically as the 28-day ones. As for ESPC - espc2 posted the report earlier this affy, but the link resolved to a blank page. Maybe he'll fix it.
  9. HTTP error 404 returned from the link you give.
  10. Monthly figures from RoS http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_jan09.pdf Prices down -3% MoM. +4% YoY Down -11% from peak.
  11. Monthly figures from RoS http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_jan09.pdf Aberdeen Price Down Edinburgh Up Dundee Down Glasgow Down Scotland Down Volumes are down from Dec, but significantly up YoY.
  12. Monthly figures from RoS http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_jan09.pdf Prices up +2% MoM. +6% YoY Down -8.5% from peak.
  13. Hi Max, get well soon. A very interesting post. What you describe about the attitudes and beliefs of the FTB's and wannabe FTB's reminds me of the behaviour and rituals of the Melanesian Cargo Cults.
  14. Yes, I think that's a sound analysis. I think that PFI and PPP coming home to roost is also having a big impact on these figures as formerly off-balance sheet spending now comes into the public accounts. There is additionally the impact of fighting two major wars in faraway places and much fantastically expensive fortress-Britain security stuff. The impact of the Blairite uplift in NHS spending and the emergency re-nationalisation of and re-investment in Railtrack, along with other, recent emergency and punitive infrastructure renationalisations is all there for us to read and weep. However, I don't have a particular dislike for big government in and of itself, any more than I dislike big business. As far as I'm concerned and as far as they impact me, these things are just like the weather. Or hills. They exist, and there's not much I can do about it; sometimes we coast easily downhill in fair weather and it's great. At other times, we struggle uphill into the wind and rain and it's horrible. The point I'm making on this thread is that the private-sector banking disaster has, as we all know, now become a public-finance issue. Scotland's public finances will therefore be coming under increasing budgetary pressure in the next few years. As Scotland's public sector is proportionally larger than the UK's as a whole, this budgetary pressure will inevitably lead to pressure on employment and impact on final demand to the detriment of the Scottish economy. So, the contour-lines of the hill will become closer together as we climb to the hoped-for summit of recovery. We will also be climbing into a headwind, with a severe risk of squalls turning wintery. I read that the helicopter mountain rescue service is to be privatised. Let us hope that they still have the resources to pluck us from the cliff-face should we need it, and that the service remains free-of-charge for those in genuine need.
  15. The AECC is a private concern faced with failure in the face of difficult trading conditions. Aberdeen City Council has now bailed out this private enterprise with public money. Union Terrace Gardens is a public space; publicly-owned common land. The current plans bombastically demand the unilateral private-money annexation of this common treasury. While I have no objection to the fact that the council must represent and take care of business interests in the City, I would contend that when such representation (by requiring cash aid) will have a direct and immediate detrimental effect upon vulnerable groups of residents, the residents needs should come first. Socialism for private corporations which, until very recently, have set great store by their free-market credentials seems a little hypocritical, no? To push through this bail-out of the conference centre while simultaneously entertaining the donation of common land to business interests lets Aberdonians know just where they stand on the council's list of priorities. We are donors who exist only to be tax-farmed in favour of business interests. In my opinion, this is a vision of an upside-down world.
  16. Edinburgh unemployment claimant count very sharply up:
  17. Aberdeen unemployment claimant count sharply up.
  18. Hi Mr Gruff, Thanks for the Quality Control. Language is a slippery thing, I should have taken more care... When I said: I might more accurately have said: The 1/4 figure for employment is accurate enough, the actual figure is 23.1%: from http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/09/15140059/2
  19. You might want to put on your crash helmet before reading this. (Either that or your tinfoil hat.) Figures from the UK's Pre-budget report, the Centre for Public Policy for Regions show that the Scottish Government's budget will fall by nearly 12% in real terms over the next two budget periods. http://www.cppr.ac.uk/media/media_138777_en.pdf The public sector accounts for more than 50% of GDP in Scotland and provides about 1/4 of all employment. According to The Economist the public sector in 'Northern Britain' is larger today than is was in some of the Iron Curtain countries during the Soviet era. Earlier this month, the budget went through at Holyrood just about on the nod. This is clearly the calm before the budgetary storm. A painful period of belt-tightening is in the post. Given that we have seen significant malinvestment and misallocation of capital in the boom and continuing through the unsustainable stimulus period of the last year, the effect of the sharply declining government budget on aggregate demand thoroughout the entire Scottish economy is likely to be horrifying, Not a good time to be taking on debt.
  20. Stewart Milne Group hit by £27m losses. http://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/Article.aspx/1601715. "Look upon my works, ye mighty and despair"
  21. http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1601116 Aberdeen City Council is now speculating in hotel development. Frankly unbelievable. The sector will be oversupplied by Autumn this year.
  22. The only answer to that is "it depends". Firstly, how long has the house been for sale? Is the entry date 'material'? How much do you want it? How stretched are you?
  23. CT remains frozen by SNP edict. Any increase in CT would lead to a corresponding decrease in the Block Grant issued by the Scottish Govt. to the local authority, with no net increase in the cooncil budget. So, there'll be no CT increase. However, if this bail-out goes ahead (meeting to discuss tomorrow) then those who lose out most will be those who can least afford to; that is to say the underprivileged, dependent, handicapped, sick, elderly, deficient, blind, deaf, homeless, hopeless, dispossessed, distressed, addicted, afflicted and bewildered. Additionally, pressure will come to bear on essential services such as roads, drainage, police, etc. Nevermind though, as long as ACSEF get what they want....
  24. http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1594201?UserKey= "Spiral of decline" First stage? Haud on. That's my money. I'll thank you not to spend it on property speculation in a market which anyone with eyes to see in Aberdeen will be oversupplied by autumn. Let Sirian Wood bail it out if that £50m is really burning a hole in his pocket. Would that not be a suitable vanity project legacy for him to leave the city?
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