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cacot

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  1. I had intended to put a smilie at the end of that line but thought the picture and architect comment would be sufficient to show the joke up.
  2. Totally agree, but with demand going to be so high for housing after the crash I can only see them having to stack house one on top of the other. Their just isn't enough land out there for us all! I am considering becoming an architect to help at this time. Using the Escher approach! ________________ |.....||.....||.....| |.....| \\...//\\..//\\...//\\..../ .\\.//..\\//...\\//...\\ / _||___||___||___| As you can see from the simple premise we can save lots of money in land purchases and provide ample social housing. So long as we get a lot of southern hemisphere immigrants! I still think developments will pop up as they are ideal for people who don't want to spend very much and be isolated. They are also preferable for councils/utilities as the connection to services is made far easier. T *edit* due to bad sentence
  3. and considering they like to either attach them to make luxurious townhouses(terraced) or apartments(tenements) they can build 2/3+ on a 50k site. this reduces building cost further and profit can reduce per house. 50k + 100k + 30k = 180k 180k/3 = 60k for a 3 bed townhouse or 50k + 70k + 30k = 150k 150k/2 = 75k for a semi and it would be a large detached to compare with 2 semi's we are talking a 5 bed 3 rec. For every 4 semi's you could get 3 detached so 100k of land between 3 = 33k 33k + 70k + 20k = 123k for a large detached on a smallish area of ground like we see in most developments.
  4. well intentioned for them maybe, not for the poor schmuck that would be trapped in an unaffordable mortgage/collapsing asset.
  5. Well one post prior to that I said, http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=91592 But you have talked of far more serious drops prior so I will let you have it unless it comes with some prize money for calling the market!
  6. Is someone else Journalistic reading this forum maybe?!? I like the fact that the RICS is now starting to give global financial economics lessons. (along with every drunk in the pub, ganny, child, postman, etc.) Give it up admit that we are in a crash and lets get on with the cheap house buying already. It's going to happen, get out now while you still can. Oh yeah ... allegedly! (Phew! almost forgot)
  7. Nah, you're still a nutter!!! Well if didn't say it Subby would have!
  8. So I think it will drop here is a list Banks are going to end up owned by Brown. He is a pillock. the End!!! Seriously though they are back pedalling all the time. The nationalized Northern Rock has not passed on the drop. So why should the recapitalized banks do any different. The situation over here is confidence, same as shares, so until that returns no large number of purchasers will appear. Look at shares the banks fell when the government got involved. Look at the achieved auction prices they foretell the market. Winter will tell all. I certainly do not imagine any mortgages getting offered at 2007 levels other than to offer the same number of products. But what a ridiculous undertaking "attract all the bad mortgages here!!" cries the government. I reckon more prime mortgage is needed and in a falling market it does not exist. they will wait till the market bottoms before they really get involved. Prices are going to be decided by affordability and that is very far south of current prices. Speaking of south 66% off top price that's gotta hurt. It also shows where the market is heading with all the specuvestors up here using south money. The banks are going to hurt a lot more over the next 3 years and tightening credit and interbank lending are just the warning shots. The important thing for NI house prices is to stop looking at it on a local level and look at it more culturally and on a global level. NI'ish are great at getting bargains but love to overpay too if it makes them look important/posh. We have run out of posh idiots and are now working with the bargain hunters. All anyone talks about now is where to get the cheapest oil. why overspend by £30 000- £80 000 if you are going to worry about spending £250 for oil instead of £220. We are talking life changing amounts of money and the more the NI'ish get the hang of this the better. We need journo to get the affordability model looked at for a true representation of house prices, try to encourage land registry and try to encourage more open information from banks on their current and future lending criteria. Then the houses will sell as people know what they are working with. Repossession will tell the prices of the future not FTB's or BTL's they are out of the current market. The new bank money is for the currently mortgaged and businesses and nothing else. Where will the government budget go if they spend all their money on this. Where will coownership be? It should be being saved up for the bottom to buy whole developments and bring back the council estates. Then facilities can be properly provided for those areas to improve them for those that live in them. The politicians need to take a view for the future, Peter Robinson showed his hand. He made it clear that the future is - not so many civil servants. He described it as no way to run an economy but it would do for now if it helps. Newsflash - it made things worse!!! Now unemployment will increase, reducing budgets and causing cutbacks, we are already starting to see this. Private sectors are always more lucrative and bring in extra money as opposed to in NI where we just recycle the money, losing a bit more in every cycle. In total I see a drop of similar to the south but holding slightly higher. 66% drops should do it. £300k house becomes £100k, £150k becomes £50k Try picking up those pieces?!?
  9. The rest is cut as if it is true then fair play. Though by owning more than one house you are in part contributing to the lessened likelyhood that others will be able to afford. Think of it this way, if you did not own the house, they could not rent it, they would use your profit rental yield to purchase it. So you are causing FTB to be priced out like it or not. House prices have fallen by more than 30% ON AVERAGE. This is true as we can see all the new houses not factored in dropping by 40-50% so drops are severe and have taken a year. If the investors you say are "waiting in the wings for 4-5 months" then they are idiots, as they are buying as the market rises rather than falls.(Spring bounce type) So if they thought they would not adjust further they would buy now. They are not. They are waiting to see if it falls further, which it will by the way. They and you are trying to set up a price situation where, like certain EA's who write in the Belfast telegraph and propertynews, try to convince joe public that the crash is over go and buy your homes. NEWS JUST IN:- the adjustment/crash/apocalypse, call it what you will, will continue for another year at least. The land bought at top prices has not even got planning yet and they certainly cannot afford to just sit on it. No they will either try to develop it or engineer a price rise. IMPOSSIBLE - the baks are never going to be allowed to lend in the manner they did to cause the rise. Unemployment will cause a fall, recession will amplify it, banks/government will control it. People do not trust banks with their money, so they will be less inclined to save = lower deposits. Give me a concrete argument as to why in 4-5 months the house prices will rise? You can't... and that is why you and many others read this and will not come out to discuss it. Reporters report this as it is relatively and openly and evenly well argued, fact driven, case enhanced information that is out there to help the FTB. Those who you would quite clearly and happily have pay your retirement rather than live with a bit more security in theirs. I am not saying you have not worked hard to earn this. Many others who were more unfortunate than you have now got portfolios with houses that noone will touch with a BTL mortage. SVR and high rates for them, raised rent, no tenants, repossession or sale, their choice. For me I will sit and wait, save and prepare, for the day that they come to me and ask me to buy their house. Fear is more powerful than greed. This is seen clearly in a market that you could make a killing in, though most people - the bravest in fact, are terrified of what is to come. Happy Investing!!! Oh, and welcome!
  10. I think they need to be second resale to get in the report.
  11. A wise man once said.... On 9 Oct at 17:33 - Camthescot from Lisburn said: Another desperate attempt to find the bottom of the market, shame the bottom is always just out of reach. Wonder what price houses will be going for next month? or further into the cold of winter? 'Spring Bounce' hopes ahead again then? Would be nice to hear the reality of house prices, and the affordability problems that await us. Bring Land Registry online for Northern Ireland! Allow the buyers the information we need! Oh... that would be me then.
  12. I know as even the EA's will tell you they are holding the prices higher. It is like a car boot sale when you say "3 pounds" knowing you want £2. It is funny how the housing market in NI has become like a car boot, well closer to that than a housing market. Traktion: I am putting this on here as I do not intend to join the other forum but do read it. I liked the article but the audience we are targeting with that kind of help are FTB's. At their end the real sale price has gone down 40-45% on achieved sales, due to good haggling and valuers from banks getting scared to value to high and be held liable. So we talking about 100k on even a 3 bed semi!!!(240k at height) I have rented for the last 2 years 3 months. For talking sake: £400pcm x 27 = £10800 £100000 / 27 = £3703pcm Now that is clearly ludicrous I have effectively saved myself £3303 every month I have rented rather than buy at that stage. You are right to show these kinds of numbers as this is the only way to let people really see the kind of money we are talking about. They do not understand how 50% rise is 33% down. I agree that to buy just now is madness unless you are sure you are fall protected for the next 2 years in the achieved price. I still struggle to understand how it will go below R.V or prices of that kind, but I do think that it will.
  13. They talked on the BBc the other day that the prices had dropped by 30% but had risen by 80% previously. I had to explain to my colleagues (educated people) that 33% drop equalled a 50% rise. I went on to say that a 45% drop would cancel out the 80% rise. So in reality if you look at true achieved prices in NI at the FTB end they have fallen 40% approx. EA's will admit that! So we have almost lost all the rise, though some were priced at 120-150% above r.v. So to get back to R.V. we need a 55% drop, so a bit to go and this is when Capitulation is going to come in.
  14. I have heard of some though my offers aren't being accepted YET!!!
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