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About kenzoil

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  1. kenzoil

    Should I Buy?

    Crashdesk Would have to agree with DB. Finances are of course important and you've seen a house that you believe is 'affordable' - but the list of compromises against your 'tick-list' would seem fairly substantial! As a home looker myself (3 years this Spring!!) I am as frustrated as others at the current 'sticky' prices; but don't think now is the time to dive in. If you are saving for deposit - keep saving... prices will continue to fall (i.m.o) and you'll be better placed with big deposit and cheaper prices.. [maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow.. but some time.. and for the rest of your mortgage life!!!]
  2. I've noticed second hand prices jumped also and should come back (hopefully) spring/summer. Personally I use Autotrader, but NI a bit limited and if you're adventurous can get a decent deal on the mainland, even with travel to & from. Can't advise on a source, but two sites well worth researching are: wisebuyers and Parkers, if you haven't already.
  3. 4WIW - I don't think your likely to get much today that you could term a 'decent buy' - still over-priced and media doing a good job talking up national price rises. Obviiously, if you do the sums (I'd base my mortgage on around 9% to take account of impending mortgage rises.) and its what you want, then its a good buy - certainly cheaper than the madness years and if its a home you can afford - goforit. As for 'averages' the closest you'll get is looking at historic area averages, and then decide what you think your local area may be in terms of a premium!! DV still best guide we currently have - but if you believe prices further to drop than that (as I do;-)) check out BOI historic price index - looking at say Q1 2004 for a semi (averages of course hid a multitude of variations) around £114k.. DYOR - but these are my views.
  4. Just more of the same - steroids into the market to keep house prices artificially inflated, and part of the 'targets' set for banks to 'lend more' as part of the publicly funded bail-out. Mortgage approvals dipping, net loans falling and while banks may want to set LTV at no more than 80%, this provides them with a small ('sucker') market of potential buyers paying 10x to 12x base rate at least.. not a bad 'earner'... Edit to add: Belfast VI - clearly the intention is not to set this as a 'standard' for general lending leading to the assumption they believe market has only 10% to fall - as reported "We committed £15 billion to mortgage lending in 2009 ...and £1bn of this was made available exclusively to home buyers with deposits of just 10per cent" - I read this as if they provide less than 7% to buyers with 10% deposits, and overall lend £15bn - Hey presto... big bonuses please
  5. +1 Is it me! - or have house prices, including the current 'rise', followed the course of the DNA bubble almost exactly? bubblegraph.doc By my estimate - if the trend continues, we haven't even seen the worst of the falls yet - 2010... but probably 3+ years of near flat nominal thereafter... - as Johnny said bubblegraph.doc
  6. BallyB - I thought you were a pure BTL'r, but nice to see you providing advice to FTBs.. However, a few thought on your advice.. 1) price drops will be 20-30% over the next couple of years (minimum) on average, so a 10% discount looks less attractive; 2) FTBs currently priced well out of the market for average properties (NI still has, according to Halifax survey no affordable areas); 3) on the basis of (2) above - how likely is it that FTBs (or anyone else for that matter) will see their 'dream' house available at a price they can afford @ 3.5 time salary? Your talk of 'getting a bargain with 10% discounts..not available in a few years time' strikes me as the sort of Developer tosh currently doing the rounds to suck the unfortunate few into the current bear trap. I believe we've only got to the top of the biggest 'dipper' drop in NI's housing history... but that's only my view and you're entitled to yours.. I think the vast majority of potential buyers now recognise that far from being "scared off by the “profits of doom†on this sight, realise that not only were the many bears right about unsustainable market and the impending crash, but that irrespective of finance availability, the worst is yet to come. So FWIW, my view is that the only thing FTBs would gain by buying now is being slightly less worse off than those (thankfully few and far between) who bought in the boom of 2004-07 (as for the investors and flippers caught out in the mania - well as you can imagine, I've less sympathy for them ).
  7. BOI/UU Quarterly price archive back to 2003 http://www.bankofireland.co.uk/bank-of-ire...-index-archive/
  8. Beats me how all the mystics, spooks, witch doctors and charlatans that call themselves 'experts' get their 'gut feeling' and stretch a very thin line of figures into an improbable theory which is taken as facts, and reported as such... HPCrs on here don't profess to be experts, but have a much better grasp of reality (or maybe its just because they (experts)have been so spun round even they believe their hype!!) Finance fgures today illustrate the massive burden that we will all face (and the 'off-the-mark predictions of so-called ‘Economic Experts’). Public sector net borrowing surged to over £8bn … way higher than the £600m forecast by economists (only a slight under-estimate then ??). - the first deficit for any July since 1996 and the biggest shortfall for the month since records began in 1993 (great, another record broken) Darling has predicted borrowing will hit £175bn this financial year - at the end of July 2009 net debt hit £800.8bn, equivalent to 56.8% of GDP and the biggest figure since records began in 1974 (and another record Wahoo!!).. meanwhile the BOE pumps more money into the economy.. (sorry bankster’s pockets). As far as the BOI/UU report is concerned, theres enough “While performance variesâ€, “suggests thatâ€, “tentative†and other such phrases to cover the positive spin without blame, alongside qualifiers such as “in the last quarter is a recorded pick-up in transaction volumes, c 35% higher than the previous six months. While coming off a very low base by historical standards and a long way short of what may be considered a normal market†However, other statements would tend to suggest, at best, a slanted interpretation of the data �" eg Overall, price adjustment from 2007 peak is now of the order of 35% - on most comparative measures, suggests that the regional market has returned to a more comfortable position, based on income and market fundamentals, of some 10 to 15% below the UK average. [WOT ??? not unless the “UK average†is based on SW and London alone…] or “QHPI suggests that average prices are now back at early 2006 levels ..the burden of negative equity, to the extent that it exists, will fall mainly on those who purchased after this date†and “recent research report (Fitch Ratings) suggests that less than 7% of borrowers (in NI) are currently in NEGATIVE equity (compared to c10% across the UK)... “ (Whilst I on the one hand find this hard to believe, on the other it illustrates that other regions are back to earlier historic prices, showing just how far we in NI have to go and that those currently on the list are the minority, being hit hard in the truely ridiculous phase of house prices, the many in the last 5-6 years (unless owners have used to low rates to pay off capital) will only add to this. So how hard have those who are in -ive equity been hit so far; as the report points out “for those borrowers who made purchases during this period (2006/07) and are in negative equity, it is likely to be significant in…Northern Ireland has the highest difference in the UK between the value of their property and their mortgage, at over -£23,000 on average (£23k!! ouch!!) As for 'new build' the report highlights “new build occupies a disproportionately large percentage of the sales (39%)â€.. "…unlike other parts of the UK at the moment, Northern Ireland does not appear to have an issue with the stock of property available for sale" - Housing Executive undertook a small research project - almost 500 sites on which new dwellings remained unsold, equating to more than 2,000 properties. No doubt a proportion of these have now been sold, but many new dwellings still remain unsold and in many cases even if they are sold, they are unoccupied. As has been pointed out, current statistics are shaky given the very low volumes (average prices can indicate a rise even when overall prices are declining and a few higher priced properties have an disproportionate impact on this average). The only reason why prices haven’t gone into meltdown is the perverse mentality of the Government and the BOE trying to prop up an unsustainable market. As far as “Transaction volumes increasing / New Builds etc." the equivalent Q2 2003 had a reported 2,618 open market transactions.. and over 55% of properties sold were below £100k. Semi-Det houses (806 sales, 31% of all) were averaging £93k. Until volumes and sales prices get to around these levels (and New builds account for 15-20% rather than 40% of transactions at present), FTBs are around 25% of sales (again back to early 2000's for this), and NAMA impacts out of the way, Banks see borrowers being able to 'afford' reasonable multiples of earnings for their 'risk', unemployment (economically inactive!) rates stop increasing ..etc. etc. I fail to see how even the most optimistic of 'economic experts' can be justified in even referring to 'tentative signs..' If it's 'sales volumes' they want (our Friendly EAs getting more than 1 sale per week, unoccupied housing stock being used and renovated instead of rotting, high street sales of furnishing etc..) this isn't going to happen until there's a significant fall from the reported averages pushing £160k (my guess is 20-30% at least). I've waited 3 years... guess I'll have another couple {well it was naive of me to believe that the 'crisis' would reboot the system like a badly performing PC.. it is a market and there's too much tied up for the VIs to allow prices to deflate too quickly.. the 'madness' 4-year cycle is gone - only the 'normal bubble from early 200's to deflate now.. but oh.. it feels so slow!} PS: in case anyone doesn't know where to find the BOI/UU report, link below http://www.bankofireland.co.uk/fs/doc/house-price-index/q2-2009-house-price-index.pdf
  9. I see its gone sale agreed. Good luck to whoever has bought it, particularly if it is a FTB. However, it does highlight for me the fact that DCV (which is still the best/only guide we have) is still in many areas including Bangor, reflective of unsustainable House Prices. In the mid 90's small terraces like this one would have been valued at <£25k (my first house was 4+1 in the centre and sold for £24k IN '95). By 2001 house prices indices were putting the average terrace in NI at around £51k (may have been slightly higher in leafy 'Bangor' ). Over 100% rise in 6 years is bad enough (and many reckon 2001 was the start of the breaking point in reality and affordability for the 'lifeblood' of any housing market FTBs), but by 2005 the house listed here has a DCV of £75k and my own old wee terrace was pushing £100k?? Thats 300% in 10 years . The long term trend should align with wage growth, inflation etc. and even at 5% p.a. this type of property should have been at most (and I'm being generous here to allow for the 'peace dividend etc.') round £50k in 2005 - that's still a doubling in value from mid 90's. By this measure, DCVs would have been overvalued by 50%. Fast forward to 2012 and at the same steady 5% growth p.a. this (without the massive speculation bubble which has been going since late 90's) still wouldn't equal the 2005 valuation; at around £57k - so 24% overvalued by then. I'm not suggesting that by 2012 we will get to this level of normality (I think it'll take much longer) but to get a functioning market, based on sensible borrowing against average wages for a 2 up 2 down for first time buyers, there will have to be properties which equate to around 3x times annual (single) salary. We're in a bull trap/stagnant phase at the moment and the level of denial is tangible - but fundamentals - rather than the 'funding a mental' (dodgy developers, false earning get-rich-quick speculators etc.) finances we've endured -will (eventually) reign again. Anecdotally, unofficially, some reports state DCV being used as the bench-mark to assess 'true value' by Banks etc. (though strangley not EAs....) For me, I'll continue to use the DCV as the "threshold" to determine if some form of normality is returning, but unless this happens for the great majority of properties and takes another 5 years to happen, at the moment I'll be taking a further 10-15% off DCV to see 'is this worth it?' now.
  10. Doubt it myself - bubble started late90's, should have deflated by 2003, not even falling as quickly as they rose... doubt there's any chance the 5% will need to be paid back in 10yrs never mind 7 - still, best to count this into your finances. 5 yr fixed term is fairly attract - renting/saving for larger deposit would be my view, but good luck whatever.
  11. Can't say I've seen any increase, but a number that have been listed incorrectly for some time - eg http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l
  12. Think this was listed previously when -£10k below RV - NOW half price!!! if you believe original asking of £280k last July, NOW @ £140K. http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=1&sort=h2l http://vlistdcv.lpsni.gov.uk/propertydetai...36702&rn=79 have noticed more in the Ballyholme village (which seems to extend for around 5 SqMiles!!) coming back to - if not affordable? more realistic, which along with other properties indicates the North Down ostrich mentality is slowly changing... give it another year though.
  13. Gotta agree with JoeDavola - voted No. Even if prices don't fall to 2003/4 levels, around 10 to 15% off RV, prices aren't going to rise dramatically - what money I have is now tied up and looking at early 2010 to buy.
  14. I'm surprised that investors would not have to hand the full range of market data including wages, employment etc. - Try the DETI labour Market research reports http://www.detini.gov.uk/cgi-bin/get_build...4267&site=4 FACT - wages in NI are around 85% of UK average - why wouldn't house prices be around 85% (as they were up until around late 1990s!)
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