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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. and, as an analyst, I am increasingly alarmed by the banks and their ability to analyse risk. Once again, they don't even seem to begin to understand what is unfolding... or perhaps it's the bailout mentality, which seems to have spread to the ordinary man in the street and "fake free market" supporting rags like the Daily Mail...
  2. The Middle Classes will be profoundly impacted on so many levels - the complexity here is huge... If the jobs market is hit, which seems likely (the Bank of England is indicating it will be hit bad) then they will be hit worse than most. But... Long Covid means the labour market is tighter than many seem to imagine... we're losing a tranche of our most valuable workers to Long Covid - the problems are mounting, which will feed secondary inflation. Either way, they / we are stuffed.
  3. Yes, this is correct. Secondary inflation was being dismissed until a week or so ago. Actually, it's worse than that - many of the big banks and their analysts were circulating their "thoughts" which amounted to... we're through the worst, and no further IRs are needed... Then came the data (PS. We already had that data, which makes me think the big High Street banks are as bollix as they were before the last financial crisis when it comes to forward planning and risk work - perhaps even worse!). The Bank of England has suddenly shifted, it seems to me. Mr Pill sent out those smoke signals to the banks and others... mind you, the banks and the financial sector journos who "analyse" all of this are slow on the uptake... actually, just thick as pig****!
  4. Knowing the "banking class" as I do, they are mortgaged to the hilt and incredibly vulnerable to IR rises... This will be interesting... with the UK's peripheries hammered by cost of living issues, and the wealthy in the SE hammered by IR rises.
  5. yes, the average civil servant in the UK earns £29,000 - salaries are generally dire. Here in Wales it is beyond dire - heaven knows how people survive let alone afford mortgages... I work in London for this very reason. Most people don't have that choice. Around 500,000 here work in the public sector (plus many more indirectly). I looked at salaries in Cardiff last week, for the first time in years... and it's akin to death by a thousand cuts... the gap has gradually widened between what people earn there and in London - 20-30,000 is normal. Then you look at the housing market. It really is nuts.
  6. Reality is about to hit home. I was speaking to a nurse yesterday (London) - their one bedder costs £500,000 - as they put it, they can't ever move up no matter how much promotion they get at work. It is nuts.
  7. My Chinese colleagues in the bank will brew a bot (with leaves not bags) then just pour water on through the day - they say the flavour evolves!
  8. How ironic to see that vile paper supporting socialism and pleading for cash support lol!
  9. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-producer-prices-in-april-posted-highest-increase-on-record-271653032416 Producer prices rose 33.5% on year, Destatis said. Energy prices rose 87.3% from a year earlier, it said. Strong gains in the price of natural gas, up 154.8% on year, were a major factor behind the increase, it said. The producer price index excluding energy rose 16.3% on year, according to Destatis.
  10. Yes that's entirely my point - it's all relative. Housing stock is so bloody awful in the UK that these houses would be seen as incredibly mediocre/dated elsewhere.
  11. heaven knows what I work for at the moment - on a break from work after a nasty bout of Covid but still being forced to write reports...
  12. Interesting vis-a-vis Taiwan tensions and so on - that's a big wad of cash. Mind you how does this cash contribute to productivity stats?
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