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gruffydd

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Everything posted by gruffydd

  1. The polls show inflation expectations are already out of control. Something else has happened. I suspect it's China. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inflation-expectations-jump-september-citiyougov-2021-09-21/
  2. I suspect it may be China that pushes them over the line this year... power cuts and factory shutdowns... the inflation flowing through from China over the next 2/3 months may be immense. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-23/china-s-power-cuts-widen-amid-shortages-and-climate-push Indeed, China - on top of everything else...
  3. All MPC members ready to raise UK rates this year if needed, says Bailey https://www.ft.com/content/b3e403a3-a408-4d84-b71e-8857b677bbea They may have just noticed the inflation data heading their way... it is horrendous. They may well be forced to raise rates.
  4. Over 2/3 years perhaps... deflating house prices... a slow train wreck... actually I suspect perhaps 2-3 months... events have a habit of creeping up unexpectedly at the moment. “It’s the worst of the 1970s, when you had stagflation, and the worst of the great financial crisis, when debt levels were unsustainable. It’s a slow motion car wreck. This is not a prediction for what’s going to happen to the market in the next three or six months. But over, say, the next two or three years, that’s what I see.” https://www.ft.com/content/f8378ca3-9182-4e14-9d54-9d7a213f82b0
  5. “It’s the worst of the 1970s, when you had stagflation, and the worst of the great financial crisis, when debt levels were unsustainable. It’s a slow motion car wreck. This is not a prediction for what’s going to happen to the market in the next three or six months. But over, say, the next two or three years, that’s what I see.” https://www.ft.com/content/f8378ca3-9182-4e14-9d54-9d7a213f82b0
  6. “It’s the worst of the 1970s, when you had stagflation, and the worst of the great financial crisis, when debt levels were unsustainable. It’s a slow motion car wreck. This is not a prediction for what’s going to happen to the market in the next three or six months. But over, say, the next two or three years, that’s what I see.” https://www.ft.com/content/f8378ca3-9182-4e14-9d54-9d7a213f82b0
  7. I agree - most mEuropean countries maintain huge gas storage facilities... in the UK... no strategic planning worth its salt, so we're very vulnerable to shocks! Bloody awful politicians, basically.
  8. Oh dear. https://www.channel4.com/news/government-has-let-energy-companies-use-the-market-like-a-casino-founder-of-green-energy-firm-says
  9. A video to watch - Dale Vince on the UK of chaos: https://www.channel4.com/news/government-has-let-energy-companies-use-the-market-like-a-casino-founder-of-green-energy-firm-says
  10. It isn't an excuse that they could use in that they created the mess... the government decided to reduce the storage capacity they directly controlled... to leave it up to the market... the market failed to step in so now we have chaos. Compare and contrast gas storage capacity in the UK with mainland Europe: https://www.channel4.com/news/systemic-problems-in-uk-energy-market As for regulation, etc... Dale Vince wasn't holding back here: https://www.channel4.com/news/government-has-let-energy-companies-use-the-market-like-a-casino-founder-of-green-energy-firm-says
  11. I live in Wales and one thing I've noticed over the last few months is the complete loss of the usual Westerly airstream... no doubt that's causing probs for wind power generation. The weather pattern seems to be stuck for now.
  12. Having just read this (gulp) I agree... I thought it would be a slow burn... not so sure now! https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-gas-price-energy-supply
  13. Dear God! https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-gas-price-energy-supply
  14. There isn't due to the shift to renewables (ie no coal, etc.) - renewables were supposed to fill the gap but... nope... there just isn't the storage capacity. A total f*** up hitting us at exactly the wrong time.
  15. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-gas-price-energy-supply "According to some experts, it’s just the first flashing warning light on the dashboard of a car heading headlong into a prolonged, painful crash. Almost everything that could go wrong with the energy markets is currently going wrong". This line on the energy crisis is important re: inflation: "It has had ripple effects on other commodities, pushing up the price of oil and potentially food." I think we can replace the "potentially" with "definitely" before food because supply chains are already moving through to crisis. This looks incredibly serious but where's the solution? There isn't one in energy terms because of the shift to renewables! Bloody nightmare! https://www.ft.com/content/684e4ef1-87a9-4bdf-96f4-956df4e0a1e2 “UK consumers are seeing extreme volatility in terms of prices,” says Bros. “You’re outside Europe so you may have blackouts with a higher probability than us.”
  16. The inflationary pressures are “increasingly getting structural in nature”: General Electric Co. CEO Larry Culp “It’s not a transitory situation [referencing inflationary pressures]”: David Petratis, CEO, Allegion Plc, who think there will be sticky-levels of inflation for an extended period (years, not months). And they are right...
  17. Yes that's one thing we've noticed via our analysis - grocery inflation is increasing alongside a major reduction in special offers - also the big names are currently suffering a fall off in sales so share prices, etc., are under pressure.
  18. I'm an analyst - I spend my days looking at sheets of data on inflation and advising on trends. There is a serious problem.
  19. This "new food" industry is nightmarish and would unleash environmental catastrophe (while on another level solving some environmental problems)... I have a huge issue with the science and the "money guys" ramping this stuff up.
  20. I was speaking to a buyer in a major retailer the other day - they said the volatility right now is incredible - they just don't know where the shortages will be from one day to the next - very challenging to predict.
  21. Well that will bugger up the environment big time, if it happens. Unintended consequences and all that (and I doubt it will... I should add... the "new tech" guys have been saying the same for at least 10 years re: other tech and "growing meat"... it never seems to happen).
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