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About gruffydd

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    I live on HPC!

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  1. Just spoke to a valuer in S England and they were working off 10-20% value falls - although as he pointed out nobody really knows. Backs up what the EA told me in Wales.
  2. rural South Wales. Not so reliant on the private sector economy as many other parts of the UK... that is where the real economic "shock" will come - not here (yet...it will come though).
  3. An estate agent told me the price level was already 10-20% down on asking price... and this is with furlough and the rest of the cash hurled at the economy by Sunak. What happens when mass redundancies kick in at the end of the summer? Pretty obvious isn't it.
  4. Yes working with an array of Oxbridge scientists right now - all working for nothing - bloody long hours too!
  5. Actually studies suggest that is not the case - look at the recent study from Spain - 5% infection rate... how many died. We don't understand ongoing morbidities which could be horrendous. If we let it run its course, millions upon millions will died and it will cripple the economy. It's just nuts - only weirdo outlier countries such as the UK, USA and Sweden have courted this - meanwhile much of the rest of the world is dealing with it and reopening without infection... from Denmark to China. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/01/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
  6. It is nonsense because we are not going back to normal anytime soon - employees should be innovating to dig their companies out of trouble - doing something constructive for their businesses. It probably costs a hell of a lot more than a simple means tested income floor for everyone who needs it (say £200 a week or something). It is terrible thinking from Johnson and his cronies.
  7. Should be doing a Sweden - what weird bubble are you living in? Sweden is in trouble. We should be doing an East Asia/Australia/NZ - ie getting to grips with the virus and then easing - instead we have a half arsed lockdown that doesn't really work and now heading for a wall! Do the bloody science!
  8. Short... nope. More like a long, slow and painful readjustment - heaven knows what is happening to the USA. The world will tilt towards Russia/China and away from the USA and its hangers on - the English speaking world has - on the whole - enacted failed and flagging responses, maximizing ongoing disruption (and death). There is so much economic disruption to contend with, and that will stay with us for sometime once the virus fizzles out/a vaccine is found.
  9. There has been so much disruption to the world economy (ongoing - and for how long? 3 years? 2 years? 1 years? Who knows - it'll be very challenging to go back to where we were. The USA, UK, Australia are all uniquely exposed due to failed responses. Laissez faire doesn't work with pandemics, the plonkers!
  10. Just spoke to a surveyor who told me he could no longer value houses - he said he thought values may be down by 25%-50% yet he had no real idea because there is no clear end to the crisis because we don't understand the virus in enough scientific detail to map a route out of the crisis. Also, as he pointed out, the economy has been cratered and may take a decade to recover. What strange and awful times we are living through. I was far from gleeful. Sympathies to all who are struggling at the moment.
  11. There may be no immunity with this type of virus... clue... the common cold!
  12. This is worse for the UK because the UK has implemented a laissez faire response. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/pound-traders-bet-against-u-k-laissez-faire-response-to-virus The lockdown isn't on a level with Wuhan's (so not tough enough) and the other key plank of suppression is in chaos because the government ********* up in January. https://www.ft.com/content/fa747fbd-c19e-4bac-9c37-d46afc9393fb So basically, we are in trouble - and the financial markets have noticed. Really can't see how the virus can be suppressed with the lockdown we have (which was introduced weeks to late) and the huge gaps in testing. Then there are ventilator shortages and so on. A lack of ICU beds. And on and on.
  13. They will tend to die first, of course... the age profile of the dead may well shift with time... mortality rate is pretty high in over 60yrs as things stand (around 4% I believe).
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