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House Price Crash Forum

billsballs

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About billsballs

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  1. billsballs

    Meanwhile In Banker Land

    Al Qaeda couldn't fly planes into the towers today. The sight of bankers throwing themselves out of windows wouldn't have the same pshychological effect on the nation. It's a horrible thing to sugest but probably spot on.
  2. Having just moved away from the area i will sum it up briefly: Its an absolute sh1thole full of pikeys with knives.
  3. Excuse my ignorance but is there not various types of inflation? Surely the one with overwhelming importance is wage inflation. Twin that with higher taxes and the majority have less hard earned to spread about generally. That means they are less likely to put their discretionary spend towards the frivolous items that they have been buying for 10 years. Add commodity inflation and you've got a perfect sh1t storm. Even if food and fuel stay constant or drop a bit, without wage inflation the system is screwed.
  4. billsballs

    Commercial Property - Offices

    It depends what you want and where. Vacant buildings are struggling to shift. Smaller buildings that used to be targeted by owner occupiers aren't going as small companies can't raise the debt. As a broad brush - Ask a local expert what the rental value is. Assuming it's a small property that would generate interest from small business's (therefore risky from an investors viewpoint) then times the rental value by 10 and pay that. You won't be far off. Central London is a completely different market. Where are you looking and what kind of size?
  5. billsballs

    Darling Says We Can't Cap Bankers Bonuses

    He might be correct. However, i know an increasing amount of people that have the potential to take things into their own hands and follow them home with baseball bats tucked out of sight but within easy reach. In the good times the one million on the dole couldn't be bothered to work. Now we have an extra 1,500,000 on the dole who want to work. They've got a hell of a lot of time to think about the reasons why they can't feed their kids or pay the rent. The bankers have been very brave to flaunt this. They'll get theres sooner rather than later. Yes there is an amount of laziness and ignorance in the general population but history has proven that an element of our society aren't shrinking violets when the sh1t hits the fan.
  6. billsballs

    Can You Bank On Me?

    The farmers all had nice enough houses, nice new discovery as well, they'd been living beyoned their means - why not get new machinery rather than a new disco? The bankers came out of it alright but the girl came up with some crackers, re: the minimum wage, is that £100 per day of per week? Don't forget it was broadcast by the BBC and probably paid for by Bar Cap and their chums to make them out in a better like.
  7. billsballs

    Best Place In The Uk To Move To

    I'm trying to keep the area relatively quiet but why not try East Leicestershire. Rolling hills and friendly locals, good access to Nottingham/Leicester/Northampton/London and nice local towns and stuff to do and good schools both state and private. But most importantly hardly anyone from London. It's The Cotswolds without the C#n]s.
  8. ...and that is wage inflation and where that is headed. The majority of wages are fixed using RPI and with that negative it suggests stagnant wages at best for the foreseeable. That means less money in peoples back pockets, which leads to less demand for goods, which isn't going to be helped by the banks as credit has dried up. People's hard earned isn't going to go as far if other things are costing more money. Apart from some city spivs and premiership footballers i don't see much wage inflation. I see four day weeks, unpaid holidays, pay freezes and salary reductions all around me. The next leg of this is the public sector, after the election that gravy train will judder to a halt. Without wage inflation or free flowing credit to act as a substitute for it nothings going to go back to how it was. We may get inflation but in my opinion it will come with a lowering in living standards as essentials become more expensive but wages can't keep up. Stagflation - not good for house price growth.
  9. Don't forget the unemployed City boys. They generally get insurance. Normally pays about £2,000 a month for 12 months before that dries up. I know of 2 on it with another just back in work after a year on it.
  10. billsballs

    Commercial Property Storm Ahead

    Indeed, you can buy a building let to the government for 10 years at a higher yield than a 2 bed flat. If the boiler breaks they fix it as well.
  11. billsballs

    Commercial Property Storm Ahead

    Tenants are having a field day. A corporate occupier wanting an HQ in The City would now pay £40 per sq ft on a 15 year lease with 4 years rent free. At the peak it was £65 psf and 9 months rent free if you were lucky. Any tenant doing a lease renewal is similarly turning the screw. New shopping centre developments have over supplied Leeds, Leicester, Bristol, Cardiff, Derby and you can't give shops away. Landlords are terrified of empty units because they have to pay full empty rates thanks to the new legislation. All this is f#cking their cashflow. Also, new low rental levels are setting a tone of comparable evidence for the other tenancies within the block/estate/centre of the ownership. The properties are then getting down valued as some of the units are over-rented. For example an industrial estate i've looked at - most tenants paying £7.50 per sq ft, the latest letting at £5.75. The only kit that is going (and it's going well) is long let modern stock let to good tenants for a long time.
  12. My view as a commercial surveyor is that there is more pain to come here. More tenants are going bust with little appetite from new ones. Whilst yields have fallen as far as they will probably go, companies are going bust and no one is in a hurry to take the space and fill the voids. Example: Industrial Estate let to ten units at £500,000 per annum. Currently worth 9% yield = roughly £5.25 million after costs. That same estate but with three vacant units, £350,000 per annum. People still want 9% with the upside/risk of taking on the vacant units. = £3.66 million. This would have achieved about 6.25% at peak whilst fully let. Circa £7.5 million. The hit from £7.5 million to £5.25 million has been already taken and provided for in bad debt figures at the banks. The second sh1t storm is just around the corner.
  13. You could be right, he's spent 75k doing it up as well. He reckoned that the best thing that could happen to him would be redundancy as the pay off would drop his mortgage by £100k! and he'd be confident in getting another job!! They live in a different world eh.
  14. I didn't pry into the details. He's a banker, got informed information about what to go for at the time and he put a 50k deposit down. He reckoned it was going to £2,080 although he may have been trying to save face..
  15. He got lucky though, he's on a tracker well below base rate.
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