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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by andrewwk

  1. Agree with all your points, and, just to add one or two more and an anecdotal:

    If it is all about the brains (as the 'sixth largest advocate' keeps saying), and, if our 3 most significant manufacturing industries are sweeties, guns and biopharm, as shown by Michael E Porter in the Competitive Advantage of Nations - (now there is a boring book, but one that perhaps LGIR should invest some time in), then where has our bio pharma industry gone in the last 10 years, and where does that leave us as a country reliant on our brain-fired industry? Sweeties and guns?

    On to the anecdotal - I know my bipharma job went, as did those of all the scientists and engineers, many with PhDs, who helped develop and manufacture my inventions: The products are still there, but the research, development and manufacturing capacity has gone and cannot return easily.

    this argument is pointless-neither side will be persuaded that they are wrong. one thing we can all agree on is house prices are crashing.

  2. A project manager on one of the construction sites here could easily earn £100k p.a (tax free) and will be working 40hour weeks without the hassle of travel. This I would say puts him pretty close to the banker especially when adjusted for the quality of life.

    ...not if you actually enjoy working 15 hrs a day and reaally love working with excel.

  3. examples?

    (I agree with the house price point, of course. as for super-competitive banking salaries-true, they are pretty phenomenal. problem is, they expect you to sign your life over to them. the real problem is the lack of a middle ground i.e. companies that pay well but don't expect you to work 24 hours a day like that hedge fund maniac in nyc was claiming he did)).

    Maybe they do.

    Maybe the salaries paid by banks are super competitive.

    Maybe if we had sensible house prices in this country everyone's salary would go a lot further.

  4. I disagree-at the end of the day as an engineer working for a corporate lab, you will still be a drone solving the problems they tell you to solve. On the other hand, you could go work in a software company or hedge fund where they have no dress code, give you equally challenging problems to solve and pay you 6 figures.

    I also don't believe we need to pay scientists and engineers 70-80K to entice people into these fields. If salaries were to increase 10-15K above where they are now you'd see individuals flocking to these fields, as science has an intellectual challenge to it that many other fields fail to replicate.
  5. amen.

    as a phd in a hard science, I would love to work in a technology/manufacturing r&d centre or the like. unfortunately the salaries are risible-that's the reason all the phd level workers end up in banks. Perhaps the manufacturing companies should stop moaning and start paying competitive salaries.

    In this and other articles i've seen the blame has been laid on individuals not wanting to go into sciences, manufacturing, etc, because they are somehow seen as dirty. This isn't the reason at all. Whats been glossed over is that all of these require a fair - to high degree of skill, but compensate very poorly with respect to skill level.

    As soon as we see scientists and engineers being paid professional level salaries (and make no mistake they are professionals) then more individuals will opt into these fields. Your not going to see some young bright spark with a degree, masters, and PhD opt in for careers starting at 24K and topping out in the low 30's. Not with the deferred earnings and debts they have.

    The articles themselves, funnily, never mention this. Though in the comments section the truth is inevitably posted.

  6. prob dangerous to read too much into any 1 month's headline figure, for reasons you have pointed out. Better to look at

    smoothed data, but there would be less variation in those and so less scope for sensationalist headlines.


    Statistically, the lower the sample the less credit the surveys will should have. We may also see much more volatile numbers being published, be ready for this one as if we see slight MoM rises or flat numbers in the coming months, the media will spin this as positive. Those that know, however will realise this is just a by product of a lower sample size indicating much lower sales, which in itself is highly negative for the lenders and house prices. Highly posistive for us though.

  7. This evans-pritchard guy is a hoot-I think he may well be right, will be interesting to see how things turn out. However, if you regularly read his column, the tone almost always verges on hysterical. must be a very tiring having to be dr doom every Monday.


    Is seems China is about to come off the rails and Asian banks will end up getting huge write-offs.

    The entire financial system appears screwed.

    Has China seen a big rise in home ownership since the economic boom?

  8. why compare against the euro and not the dollar?

    point being that if you want to define the "value" of the pound, use a trade-weighted index or something rather than

    subjectively choosing information to suit your argument.

    you seem very hung-up about the accuracy of the stats-perhaps you could suggest an alternative?

    Sorry, but do really believe the pound has been falling in value by only ~2% a year over this period? :blink:

    For a start, you could take a look at broad monetary inflation over the same period:


    which has been in double digits most of the time.

    And why doe the gdp deflator say that the pound only lost 2.9% of its value in the 2007-08 financial year, when over that same period it lost 13.2% against the Euro and inflation in the Eurozone was ~2% according to the ECB:


  9. Reading this, I think there are two possibilities:

    1. eric has never been to sa or has only visited it a few times

    2. he is south african, but one lacking an eu passport, ancestry visa or the skills to allow him to emigrate-in my experience, such people (and there are quite a few) have this panglossian attitude mainly because they have no alternative.

    the place is quite honestly, a mess. it is a developing country with a worse trade deficit than the uk, despite vast mineral wealth. the electricity infrastructure is a disgrace and crime is at levels unimaginable to your average brit (which is one reason I get so angry when i hear british people complaining about crime). socially there is very little reconciliation (as far as i can see) and i think the government has wasted a golden opportunity to emulate the policies of the BRICs over the last 15 years.

    btw eric, lew geffen (i'm sure you know who he is) recently discussed the possibility of 40% falls (at the high end of the market) in the media.


    For someone who has over 4000 posts, I expected a better post from you. But I guess reading someone else's rhetoric and regurgitating it works for you......

    It's not the tournament itself that will benefit South Africa the most, but it's the 'exposure' that the country will get from the world wide audience watching the tournament.

    Perceptions will change about Africa due to its ability to host the biggest Event in the World, and people will start to see that it is a viable investment destination.

    And for the sake of people actually wanting to enjoy a wonderful tournament, I hope for everyone's sake that you don't attend.

  10. Yes, thankyou for providing evidence of someone who thinks they are "clever" for dismissing something and at the same time not realising it has shaped their lives and that of their society for the better - where else did your "morals" come from?

    Religion often does not shape society for the better. For example, the Catholic church forbids the wearing of condoms and promotes abstinence-only policies in Africa, despite evidence that this is slowing the fight against HIV.

  11. sorry it is a FALL of 26% as some others have pointed out. My Freudian slip was to think that prices were rising..

    No it isn't-compounding means it is roughly 34.5% (or so my calculator tells me) assuming the original figure quoted was monthly.

    This would be a highly misleading figure to quote as we would be extrapolating a volatile monthly headline figure. My personal opinion is

    they should quote monthly figures AND three monthly figures AND six monthly figures AND annual ones, so that one can get a decent idea of what's going on. Or better still, just draw a graph.


  12. No it isn't-compounding means it is roughly 34.5% (or so my calculator tells me) assuming the original figure quoted was monthly.

    This would be a highly misleading figure to quote as we would be extrapolating a volatile monthly headline figure. My personal opinion is

    they should quote monthly figures AND three monthly figures AND six monthly figures AND annual ones, so that one can get a decent idea of what's going on. Or better still, just draw a graph.


    cells not that I would ever want to critiscise you after your evenings of graft on MSE,but I reckon 90% of people do badly out of HPI,it's just 90% of them don't know it.They're too dumb.

    2.5% annualised is ............................................ 30%

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