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House Price Crash Forum

andrewwk

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Everything posted by andrewwk

  1. to be honest, in my experience (very limited to be sure) people who work in finance don't believe the BS model is true, but as Noel said, invent workarounds e.g. using the BS model to calculate implied vol and modelling the term structure of that (I am sure I am being quite inaccurate here, but I think what I am saying is broadly correct).
  2. picking up on your point here, I don't understand how real options people justify their use of the BS framework-my understanding is that the use of risk-neutral drift rates follows from the lack of arbitrage assumption. Now I can see how such an assumption could be a credible starting point for valuation of heavily traded assets, but is it at all realistic in the case of some of these real options applications? any experts care to comment?
  3. Don't want to be pedantic, but isn't it the return which is usually assumed to be gaussian, not the asset price level?
  4. maybe parents would rather give money to their adult children while they are alive than let the government get it via inheritance tax when they die.
  5. Oh man. this constant back and forth about manufacturing is doing my head in. What to do : 1. go to google and look up office for national stats 2. download their spreadsheet and docs that give a breakdown of manufacturing. you can then a. find out which sectors are affected by missing trader fraud and how they deal with it b. graph each subsector's output and see how they have been doing over the years and see if there are anomalies etc (i.e. how far you feel comfortable with the figures). c. compare the headline figures to the cia.gov ones often cited here. that way we can get to some sort of conclusion. I would do it myself, but I am lazy and don't care enough if I am honest (despite this long-winded post..). NB-this is not a personal attack on anyone, I just think the argument is a bit sterile.
  6. A lot of interesting predictions here...of course you all have the courage of your convictions and have money riding on them, right?
  7. I dunno, doing electrical engineering or computer science at a good uni probably means you are sorted anywhere (as they are both applicable in service and manufacturing oriented industries).
  8. 2 points to make here: 1. as someone who has been involved with international science competitions previously (although nothing to do with the UK teams), this is misleading-if you look at uk results in all competitions over several years, you will see that they don't do badly in comparison to similar countries such as Germany or France. The problem is not with the top students who stand up pretty well in international comparisons (here I speak from experience, having had contact with some of them at a top UK uni), but with the levels of attainment of those in the middle and the lower end of the spectrum of talent/opportunity, whatever you want to call it. 2. a more general point-what you just gave here is a point estimate-you should look at a range of statistics to get a real picture e.g. consider UK performance in a larger number of competitions and greater sample of years. The other things is to compare like with like-as I said, from my experience, the former Eastern Bloc and some Asian countries put their participants through major bootcamps before these competitions (sometimes lasting up to a year), whereas I know for a fact that UK teams draw the line at a few weeks worth of preparation.
  9. this argument is pointless-neither side will be persuaded that they are wrong. one thing we can all agree on is house prices are crashing.
  10. ...not if you actually enjoy working 15 hrs a day and reaally love working with excel.
  11. Of course not...it's ambrose evans-pritchard. The guy is widely regarded as a nut.
  12. examples? (I agree with the house price point, of course. as for super-competitive banking salaries-true, they are pretty phenomenal. problem is, they expect you to sign your life over to them. the real problem is the lack of a middle ground i.e. companies that pay well but don't expect you to work 24 hours a day like that hedge fund maniac in nyc was claiming he did)).
  13. I disagree-at the end of the day as an engineer working for a corporate lab, you will still be a drone solving the problems they tell you to solve. On the other hand, you could go work in a software company or hedge fund where they have no dress code, give you equally challenging problems to solve and pay you 6 figures.
  14. amen. as a phd in a hard science, I would love to work in a technology/manufacturing r&d centre or the like. unfortunately the salaries are risible-that's the reason all the phd level workers end up in banks. Perhaps the manufacturing companies should stop moaning and start paying competitive salaries.
  15. this is a pretty disturbing thread-none of you seem at all shocked by the fact that this guy's arm was broken-ok maybe he is a stupid so-and-so (you don't KNOW that) but that doesn't mean you have to revel in another person's misery.
  16. Actually, most of the Africans I have met in the UK are decent, hardworking people who are trying to make a better life for themselves here. If you want to find the source of the problems how about looking at the homegrown morons.
  17. prob dangerous to read too much into any 1 month's headline figure, for reasons you have pointed out. Better to look at smoothed data, but there would be less variation in those and so less scope for sensationalist headlines.
  18. This evans-pritchard guy is a hoot-I think he may well be right, will be interesting to see how things turn out. However, if you regularly read his column, the tone almost always verges on hysterical. must be a very tiring having to be dr doom every Monday.
  19. why compare against the euro and not the dollar? point being that if you want to define the "value" of the pound, use a trade-weighted index or something rather than subjectively choosing information to suit your argument. you seem very hung-up about the accuracy of the stats-perhaps you could suggest an alternative?
  20. not actually true-real gdp is calculated from nominal gdp using the gdp deflator, which is not calculated from CPI.
  21. Reading this, I think there are two possibilities: 1. eric has never been to sa or has only visited it a few times 2. he is south african, but one lacking an eu passport, ancestry visa or the skills to allow him to emigrate-in my experience, such people (and there are quite a few) have this panglossian attitude mainly because they have no alternative. the place is quite honestly, a mess. it is a developing country with a worse trade deficit than the uk, despite vast mineral wealth. the electricity infrastructure is a disgrace and crime is at levels unimaginable to your average brit (which is one reason I get so angry when i hear british people complaining about crime). socially there is very little reconciliation (as far as i can see) and i think the government has wasted a golden opportunity to emulate the policies of the BRICs over the last 15 years. btw eric, lew geffen (i'm sure you know who he is) recently discussed the possibility of 40% falls (at the high end of the market) in the media.
  22. Religion often does not shape society for the better. For example, the Catholic church forbids the wearing of condoms and promotes abstinence-only policies in Africa, despite evidence that this is slowing the fight against HIV.
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