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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by andrewwk

  1. 7 hours ago, btd1981 said:

    So Bulb have collapsed into administration, but because they are too big to fail their customers get preferential treatment??


    How is that right? This factor was never highlighted to us when we were forced to shop around for a supplier in our national privatisation Shangri-la.

    Not impressed at all. Doesn't seem right that some customers are now getting shafted after their suppliers collapsed, but others in nominally the same situation are going to be just fine.

    too big to fail, innit

  2. On 20/11/2021 at 18:01, zugzwang said:

    The Physics degree I took in the late 80s was rubbish, frankly. Full of eighteenth and nineteenth century mathematics. Hopelessly out of date. Nonlinear dynamics was an afterthought. Chaos? Never heard of it. Computation was restricted to solving problems you could solve analytically! Computer Algebra Systems? Never heard of them. Object Oriented programming? Wtf??

    I don't know about this. if you have decent levels of Linear Algebra / Real Analysis and (P)DE knowledge then you will find the quantum stuff, dynamical systems etc relatively straightforward. as for computing, I would rather employ someone with good ability to reason mathematically about real-world problems than a 3rd rate JIRA-slinging ticket monkey. Because let's face it, most maths / physics grads are pretty bad programmers went compared with a good quality software engineer.

  3. On 21/11/2021 at 01:13, markyh said:

    Good point, but my point is China, USA , UK . EU , for now, as long and FIAT gateways exist, they are all taking turns at playing King Canute, and all will fail. 

    Eventually Crypto wont need FIAT Gateways, FIAT will price off Crypto, not vice versa, and this is what they are afraid off. 

    You only need 1 worldwide unit of account to price off of via FX, currently the USD , could easily become Bitcoin. 

    tbh I hope this never happens. Loss of reserve currnecy status for the dollar would probably precipitate a massive economic decline in the States. Doubt they would handle that well + they have an arsenal of 1000s of nukes...

  4. On 20/11/2021 at 11:01, scottbeard said:

    The headline is “everyone” is on the edge.  Read on and that quote doesn’t even appear.  In truth a small number of people are “on the edge” and a much greater number not.

    The more I read and think about the more I feel that the economy as a whole could take a rate rise better than we might think. It’s just that for many millions it would be annoying but doable and for a minority of say 1 million it would sink them without trace, making them become lifetime anti-Tory voters like the former miners.

    Interesting dilemma for government.

    it's is the BoE which decides IRs not the Tory govt, but I guess that is a nuance that many would not grasp.

  5. 9 hours ago, Big Orange said:

    My money is on 21st century version of the Bronze Age Collapse, many billions die, with Russia and Europe vanishing from history (like the Bronze Age Greeks and Hittites), the USA weathering the storm but becoming a bombed out irrelevance (like Egypt), and China coming back stronger, but much changed (with the Communist Party not surviving).

    The equivalent of Sea Peoples and steppe mauraders will be genocidal transhumans and insane AIs.

    that's all very well, but will my house go up in value?

  6. 1 hour ago, slawek said:

    Many professional qualifications are automatically recognised by the EU law. Others are recognised by the law of members states.

    This deal has no real impact on the UK economy. Farmers are not happy about it.

    "The deal may boost New Zealand’s GDP by $970m or around 0.3%. However, last year’s analysis by the UK government found that its effect on Britain’s GDP would probably have “limited effect … in the long run” – being between a positive growth of 0.01% or negative growth of -0.01%."

    "Minette Batters, the National Farmers Union president, said it would open the country’s doors to “significant extra volumes of imported food – whether or not produced to our own high standards – while securing almost nothing in return for UK farmers”."


    why even bother wasting time and money to negotiate such a deal?

  7. 3 hours ago, captainb said:

    On government debt yes you are right but repay residential mortgages are given on a stress tested with rates 3% above the lenders SVR, i.e at the moment about 6%. Which is a lot higher than anything listed in that article.

    If I remortgaged at 2% rather than 1%, my payments don't double.. vast majority of each monthly payment is capital. 

    So will rates doubling upto madness of 2% on a 5 year fix, be a drag on house prices, perhaps, all things being equal it should.. will it cause a collapse. Erm no. Dull I know.


    no, should go up ~10% according to the nationwide mortgage calculator, which is a non-trivial amount for a large loan

  8. 2 hours ago, Huggy said:

    I don't think I have been as excited about the economic outlook at any point over the past 13 years as I am now :D

    Hopes for that final release have been dashed before, and they certainly could be again, but that all depends on if the BoE fired six shots or only five? Are we feeling lucky?

    Actually, it doesn't matter what the BoE or politicians think or want. Bigger fish will decide that ;) The screams of their debt junkies will still be drowned out by the cheers of the sensible cash buyers, and life will then carry on as if nothing had happened (for many, not all).

    Agreed, but law of unintended consequences, I don't want to end up in a situation where they introduce capital controls and I haven't got savings of sterling in time. How are people here actually preparing themselves against such and eventuality (or I am just being too pessimistic)

  9. Just now, andrewwk said:

    Isn't the point that such a hike will be almost doubling the interest service and on a large principal (which many have thanks to insane prices) that means a meaningful increase in replayment size

    i.e. it's not actually the level of interest that matters now, but the super huge amount of debt, which makes things very sensitive even to trivial-looking increments in interest rate

  10. 14 hours ago, captainb said:

    Hike to what? The link says they are a shocking 0.89% at the moment, which if consistent over a mortgage term makes property, even central London madness ridiculously cheap at the moment. 

    Of course people don't expect that rate to last forever, but what's this hike, to crazy heights of 1.5%? Or less than that..

    Isn't the point that such a hike will be almost doubling the interest service and on a large principal (which many have thanks to insane prices) that means a meaningful increase in replayment size

  11. 8 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

    Daily Hate back in full attack dog mode. Someone must be losing commercial rents eh?

    MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: Ministers should make it plain that working from home is now over


    This is especially difficult for Government departments. Most if not all of them need access to highly protected and confidential databases to do their jobs properly. Yet most of those who work from home lack the ultra-secure communication links that would allow them to safely reach these resources. 😂🤣🤡

    Still very difficult to understand how the place of work I agree with my employee is any of the government's business

  12. 2 hours ago, henry the king said:

    How does it happen excluding some China blow up that somehow spreads here?

    How does 20%+ nominal terms declines happen? 

    OK I'll have a go. Economic mismanagement by the posse of clowns currently governing the UK resulting in a loss of international investors' confidence in ability to fund twin deficits, followed by a run on sterling, necessitating interest rate rises, leading to a housing crash and the cratering of the UK economy, ultimately requiring an IMF bailout. 

  13. 12 minutes ago, shlomo said:

    I had a friend who not so much did this but was brilliant at interviews but useless at productive work, he used to over dress and get sacked in about 2/3 months but a big number in his bank account, he used to get upset at losing the lucrative jobs but as I said to him ‘you are shit at work’ he no longer talks to me but that is for another reason 

    how did he explain away the string of short-term gigs? also, I assume this was not a technical job, since most software / data jobs these days include moderately rigorous skills tests

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