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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Flatdog

  1. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-28/u-k-pound-may-fall-toward-four-month-low-on-bollinger-technical-analysis.html

    U.K. Pound May Fall Toward Four-Month Low on Bollinger: Technical Analysis
    “Speculation of a rate increase has driven the pound to the $1.60 level,” Okada said in Tokyo. “If you look at the consumer-price index, the pound may be a buy, but if you look at the
    U.K. economy, it’s bad enough to make you turn pale

    So far, nothing has dented Sterling, GDP drop, housing market drop, rising unemployment and confidence vote from IMF who are NOT making any noises about lowering our AAA forecast. Could we be getting close to another big sell off in the pound?

    Sorry RB..but the only thing that has dented Sterling so far has been Merv and his merry men.

  2. It intrigues meself that two somewhat unfamiliar words have entered the mainstream media recently:





    Should anyone desire to witness the (almost unbeliviably insidious) happenings within the House of Lords then tune in to the appropriate BBC channel.

    IMHO, the coalition need not look further than this geriatric nonsense (albeit possibly well intended) to find ways of saving shed loads of taxpayer’s money.

    Plus side is that Michael Martin has not yet contributed anything to the House, surprise surprise.

  3. I agree but we seem to be in a minority on here.

    There was a thread yesterday about car insurance going up 38% so I looked at the annual report of the first insurer that came to mind which was Aviva.


    Just look at the remuneration report. How many cars did they have to insure just to pay the Chief Executive? No wonder their insurance prices are going up!

    Andrew Moss, Group Chief Executive

    Basic Salary £925,000 during the year

    Mr Moss requested not to receive an increase to his basic salary in 2009.

    Mr Moss requested that his basic salary should not be subject to annual review in 2010.

    ABP £1,029,294 (111.3% of basic salary)

    Bonus is a function of the degree of achievement of 2009 targets as follows:

    (£343,098 delivered in cash and £686,196 deferred into shares for three years)

    Financial 38.9% (maximum 50%)

    Employee 5.0 % (maximum 10%)

    Customer 6.9 % (maximum 10%)

    Personal 23.3 % (maximum 30%)

    OATTV Plan £501,443

    The face value of 100% of the two-thirds deferred element of 2008

    annual bonus.

    LTIP – Face Value of grant £1,618,750

    The face value of the grant represented 175% of basic salary on

    28 February 2009.

    ACAP £462,500

    The Trustee of the Plan accepted Aviva’s recommendation and made an

    award into the plan equivalent to 50% of Mr Moss’ basic salary as at

    1 April.

    Other Benefits £19,000 cash car allowance

    2% basic salary cash

    Mr Moss receives 2% of basic salary as a non-pensionable cash

    supplement provided in consideration of his surrendering his Unapproved

    Unfunded Retirement Benefit (UURB) promise at the point when accrual in

    PMI the ASPS ceased.

    This is, quite frankly, astounding.

    Read it and weep Y'all.

  4. All this talk about supermarkets creating thousands of jobs but they never mention the jobs lost from the shops they force out of business.

    I couldn't agree more, but having said that we for the first time in a decade purchased our Xmas turkey from Tesco rather than our local butchery.

    Saved over £70-00 and TBH couldn't taste any difference.

  5. We all know that houses are not homogenous.

    That said, within some locations, it is not that hard to find two houses of similar quality and age that have sold recently.

    The price of any house is really made up of two unknowns : the value of the land and the value of the building. When we have two houses of similar quality in similar areas with two known sold prices, we end up with two equations with two unknowns. Solving simultaneous equations is simple.

    Taking this approach on a 1930s sea side estate on the south coast where I am doing some preliminary research, the equations yielded a value for the land in the region of GBP 780k per acre and GBP 123 per square foot for the building.

    Obviously this approach is not foolproof and requires some subjective quality adjustments but I have found it to be a reasonable tool to filter out the complete chancers.

    You know that it makes sense.

  6. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/2010-record-year-car-tele-3604677394.html?x=0

    Kara Gammell, 17:08, Wednesday 12 January 2011
    The cost of motor insurance premiums rose 38pc last year an increase of nearly £200.
    The latest Confused.com/EMB Car Insurance Price Index found that the average premium paid across all age groups to £695. The percentage increase was more than triple that of 2009. Third party, fire and theft (TPFT) customers fared even worse, facing an annual increase of 56pc, the equivalent of an extra £322, meaning the last refuge for young drivers looking to cut costs seems to have been compromised.
    Those aged between 51 and 55 were hit with the biggest rise
    , while the 17 20 year old age group saw premiums rise the least in the second half of the year.

    It's frenzy time muchachos as everyone jumps on the price hiking wagon. We should see massive hikes this year in everything from motor insurance to gas & electric bills. Poverty is coming but not by such covert stealth. They are going to price you into poverty.

    How do they get away with it? Because they all hike together leaving you with no alternative other than to pay.

    Too right RB, in our experience certificates are issued by either Fortis, Zurich or a.n. other that I cant recollect, irrespective of whom we contact to arrange motor insurance.

    Rip off, all of it.

  7. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-12154501

    "Air Southwest withdrawing flights to London Gatwick ... Air Southwest's service between Plymouth, Newquay and London Gatwick will not operate from 1 February because the route is losing money"

    That leaves FlyBe as the last man standing. I can't imagine Newquay Airport is anything like a going concern with so few flights. So now FlyBe is a monopoly, they'll ramp ticket prices to keep going, which will damage the stag'n'hen weekends in Newquay, and will hit the weekly commuters hard, but probably won't help the Council (owners of the airport IIRC). Knock on effects on the 2nd home market inevitable IMHO.

    Are Ryanair not set to resume flying from Newquay at the end of March?

  8. I have to pinch myself and say at least their not liebour.

    People want the status quo though. In the long run this is not possible. You cant have third world levels of prices and first world levels of wages. Its happened to others, its going to happen to you.

    Agreed, I can't believe that we are in precisely the same quandry after a change of government, nothing changes.

    Oh , yes, the wages thing..too right..witness the 'summit' at Number 10 today..a nation of shopkeepers indeed.

  9. Watched 'thin lipped' bankster Cameron and unwitting clone Clegg on the telly this evening..spiced up with a bit of Ed and the shadow chancellor fellow..

    Have to say that I really am starting to despair for the future of this country, not a statesman in sight , just a number of hapless politicians with little to offer, other than that they are prepared to say little of any real value.

    Even Vince C has proven himself to be a dimwit.

    Liars, scammers, featherers of nests..all of 'em.

    Where do we go from here?

  10. I ought to come to the rescue of the boomers I think... (before you ask I am 35 and renting).

    I don't think the problem is with people who bought 20 or 30yrs ago cheap and now there house is "worth" a fortune. In the past 30yrs there has been a considerable wage inflation (and inflation) and so houses may have been cheap then, it was still a big commitment and they probably had to work hard to pay it off, together with episodes of very high IR.

    I think the problem is with people who bought 10yrs ago for half or a third of what houses are now worth, because in the past 10yrs there has been no noticeable wage inflation, IR have been relatively low and there is therefore no reason whatsoever why house prices should have doubled or trebled.

    Had I know, 10yrs ago (when I came to the UK) I could have bought (with a near 100% mortgage) two of the houses I am today looking at buying (4 bed detached around Bristol) and with the money I have been able to put aside in the past 10yrs I would own them both outright. Instead I saved meticulously over the past 10yrs (while renting) and ... I can barely put down a 50% deposit on only 1 of the very same 4 bed detached I could have bought 10yrs.

    The people who bought 10yrs ago have not worked to repay there house any harder than I have worked to save the same amount but to only put down only 50% deposit, there lies the problem... and people entering the job market today do not earn more than they did 10yrs ago, there lies the problem too...

    Good post Frenchy, it in a roundabout way it kinda summarises what most on here are talking about.

  11. Yes, in fact your avatar was exactly the type of car that Humber based the Hawk and Snipe series on. All 1960's British cars were toned-down American designs, Austin A60's, Ford Anglias, Capris etc

    My Avatar is a picture of a '56 Ford Fairlane V8 that I drove on the road for many years and eventually destroyed on a racing circuit...all good fun.

    I have never owned a Hawk or Snipe, but remember the family Sceptre well, it had lots of chrome and the dashboard was littered with interesting dials..a delicate little stalk on the steering column engaged overdive..lovely.

    I ran Peugeot 404 (Farina design) saloon in the late 70's , well, it looked similar to an Austin A60 but drove very well indeed.

  12. These kind of "light touch" orders takes me back to the grey days of the previous Tory government, when I was on passport control at Heathrow.

    Towards the end the government was underfunding us so much that to cut costs they scrapped the embarkation control entirely (leaving us with no clue as to who was departing - therefore in one swoop rendering our overstayer checks and terrorist monitoring systems useless). Then there were the short staff times when we were ordered to look at (yes LOOK AT) just 1 EU passport in 10 on the EU control.

    Naturally if we were waving through 9 little grey haired old ladies who were clutching UK passports, then 1 young rastaman appeared with a crack crazed look in his eye and sweating nervously, we would stop him - causing secondary complaints of racial profiling (which we did but were not allowed to admit - how else could we operate under such a regime?).

    The same system was brought in with the customs vehicle controls down at the ferries etc on the south coast, causing an overnight boom in drugs and gun imports which survives until this day. Those of you watching old British films such as Ealing comedies etc would see the gangster vehicle coming off the ferry and the customs officer asking every single driver "anything to declare?". Forget about it now.

    I hope light touch does not return to heathrow passport control but with skeletal staff levels and 3,000 passengers in the arrivals hall in a busy morning, who knows.

    A treat indeed to read such a lucid post CB, I think that you ought to consider writing a book about your experiences..

  13. Yes but no, any car will last three times longer if the owner has an interest in it, puts a coat of wax on it from time to time, and does minor jobs and has a general look-around once in a while....

    My last car was a 1988 Ford Sierra 2.0 GLS which I kept for five years (2001-2006) and eventually sold on eBay for just £15 less than I paid for it, I just checked DVLA and it is still on the road and taxed.

    So although I love my 90's car I wouldn't dismiss 80's cars out of hand :)

    I still wish I had hung on to my 1962 Humber Super Snipe... :(

    I think that we share a generation HM, and enthusiasm for older vehicles.

    I wish that I still owned my Triumph Vitesse, Rover 3 litre, Sunbeam Alpine, Rover Sd1, '56 Fairlane, Humber Sceptre, Lancia Flaminia et al.

    Truth is that we enjoyed them when they were just about viable..and that having either of them rusting away in a garage would be a pain.

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