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About 3DBob

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  1. Don't worry, They may print money like crazy to paper over the cracks but the fact remains that regardless of the moral hazard and the anger we feel - the crash is innevitable, this just accellerates the inevitable BIG day of reconing why? because it will cause more spending than should occur and more resource use in the short term, hastening the decline in natural resources, most importantly - OIL. As all growth is based on energy cost and HCs are our principal source of cheap, abundant and easily deployable energy - growth will collapse and so will the Debt based Fiat monetary system built on it. The catalyst will come between 2012 and 2015 and it will not be pretty so prepare. You cannot print oil.
  2. My old 3 double bed end of terrace house I sold in Dec 2006 has now been back on the market for 148 days I sold 194.950, The owners put in an upstairs shower / toilet, re-roofed it, new carpet and a wood burning stove in lounge and put it on for 225,000 They have not had an offer, they lowered the price 7 days ago by 5,050 - a paltry 2%..... Interested to see how things go. 3DBob
  3. The best way to prolong HCs for economic growth (and more important stuff like pharmaceuticals, fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides etc) is to find the reserve of efficiency. This is a long promoted belief of mine - people will by cars - if they are 100% more efficient then we double the length of time an amount of HCs will last - in this point, finally, Cells talks some sense. Where he is falling short is what I call the sponge in a soda bottle analogy (Copyright 3DBob) - Push a sponge in a full soda bottle (ignore the fact that you loose some - this will happen in the formation of all reserves) - Put on lid - Shake vigorously for 5 mins - Open (you get a gusher - pretty easy to get wet, like the first flush from a reserve) - After pressure driven release no more is forth coming with bottle upright, so different approach is called for - Turn bottle upside down over head - a more regular but substantial flow is maintained for some time, I call this gravity pumping. - After a while the flow rate deminishes - we can let it trickle out or squeeze the bottle from the outside to force a faster flow rate - however reserve depletion rate is increased and effort to extract more is limited by the physical limits to distort the plastic bottle. - Once no meaningful amount of fluid is obtained then we cap the bottle and repeat the process with more bottles until the 6 pack and all bathroom sponges are exhausted. - Granted there is still water in the bottle - but not worth extracting Esentially one has to accept that no money will bring back a dead thing, dodo, deceased father whatever - gone is gone. Human life is like reserve utilisation - a sudden spurt of growth, stable maturity, decline. It is the order of things - accept it, no amount of money will change this. However some things don't need a lot to stay the same - like a rock for instance - having no needs makes it very secure and stable and its long term existence is assured. Reducing ones needs is the surest way to stability. Increasing ones needs is the surest way to instability - Humanity is stuck on the latter course. 3DBob
  4. Oh dear, not sure where you are getting the 80 m figure from Look here My link Here are the figures for the past 10 years year Actual cars produced in world 2009 51,971,328 (projection) 2008 52,940,559 2007 54,920,317 2006 49,886,549 2005 46,862,978 2004 44,554,268 2003 41,968,666 2002 41,358,394 2001 39,825,888 2000 41,215,653 1999 39,759,847 So about 50m a year - the figure of 600m cars worldwide quoted on the site is from 1997, there was around 800m in 2007. So the net growth over 10 years was around 20m/year and accellerating. This means the target for changeover will be higher for every year. It is expected by BAU people that by 2037 there will be 1.2 billion cars. So 800m / 50m (ignore the current declining trend) takes 16 years - the 4 years leeway is a pathetic amount of time for the factories to switch over to and ramp up thier production of a supposed Oil based derivative. I was told by a leading professor at the Chinese Oil University in Bejing (seriously they have one) that the Chinese government shut down their biggest Coal to gas plant as it didn't make sense, they were wasting energy in the coal whilst importing coal from Australia to meet demand - may as well use the coal direct. Gas to Liquid has been the principal mechanism since June 2005 that has allowed an increase in available liquids - but it will get harder to make up the depletion in Oil output whilst at the same time accellerating us towards a time when global gas production peaks (expected around 2025). Iraq is the big offsetter and the reason so much effort has been employed there - but at best it will plug the declines for a few years. 3DBob
  5. Re simple "UK has been static for two decades" argument, UK has massively outsourced its increase in Energy use-by-proxy over the past 2 decades by buying processed oil in the form of goods, materials and sevices from overseas. Go into primark and see how many items are made in the UK - and if you can find any - any at all, consider how much of the products existence is entirely down to UK energy based raw materials and processing. You will have a hard time. One would know this reality if one paid the slightest attention to what all the producer nations were saying in Copenhagen. Go back 500 years and most food eaten in UK was produced here, Most energy used was sourced here as was raw materials. Just because I live in a country where I don't grow rice, doesn't mean I can ignore the energy cost that is embedded in it. In addition, there is research to support the claim that 1 unit of manufactured goods made in China uses 5 X the energy of the same item made in Germany - this is down to much more efficient production meathods being employed in Europe. It can therefore be argued that for every laptop, Phone, Router, TV, Car, Toy, Microwave, Fridge etc. unit or component outsourced to China we are increasing our real energy use by more than the equivalent of its former local production. If you argue that "Oil itself isn't important" - then do this for me...... Stop using anything that has been touched by it, eg:- Auto Transport Plane Transport Food Phamacuticals All manufactured goods Services that require a HC And then tell me it is not important. I would say that energy per say is not the problem, but liquid fuels are and so is how we manage our remaining liquid fuels. If we where to find an alternative to Oil for car transportation - it would take every factory that produces cars in the world 20 years to turn over the worlds current 800m+ cars - not to mention all other forms of IC engine vehicles and the immense amount of energy required in that process. The focus should be on ceating secure renewable energy whilst we have non-renewables and minerals to support the transition - this is not happening. The whole Global Climate Change argument - whilst real, is mearly a hook that citizens can relate to that governments are leveraging to kick start this necessary change - but time really is running out. If you look at Madagascars forests or any resource in final stages this picture is obvious. 3DBob
  6. I can only assume that cells is being an argent pravocateur - for the sake of amusement - I value his input because it stimulates real facts and debate. The most valuable comment is that Uranium is too cheap - I would argue that Oil is unbelievably cheap - it should be well in excess of $800 per barrel to begin to reflect its true value. All non-renewable energy sources are vastly undervalued and that is what makes renewables seam expensive. Re - Uranium everywhere argument - reprocessing / new plants is the key....... a couple of random points.... Nuclear Plants are not trivial things to find sites for or construct...... Untested designs need to be tested. Reprocessing plants are not trivial things to construct. Nuclear plants are not Tescos stores. There will be a time when too many plants are chasing available Uranium Re exploration for Oil Argument. I have spoken first hand with a man responsible for exploration in Russia for over 20 years - he says Russia has used its best reserves and is struggling to find more. They even started importing gas again from Turkmenistan today. The "they haven't looked everywhere" argument is the most simple argument to confront and it requires knowledge of why oil exists where it does and why it doesn't exist where it doesn't. Essentially Oil needs a trap - the reason Oil is so common in the ME is due to a uniquely huge geological phenomenon - the area has a very deep Salt cap that locked the reserves in place over millions of years. The reason Oil existed in the North sea is also down to uncommon geology. This is how Oil majors know where it is worth spending billions of dollars having a look see - we already know what leads to oil reserves being formed and what leads to their preservation - If a place does not have both of these pre-requisites - there is no point pissing huge amounts of energy and money in a fruitless effort to find what cannot be there. Put it anotherway - you don't go looking for Fruit and vegitables in a desert (traditional - not desalinated water infused) - you may chance apon the odd melon or date - but you'll likely die in the process. If one ignores knowledge and experience you can argue that "not everywhere has been prospected" - and it is true that there may be the odd additional puddle available - but outside of the ME and some areas of Africa and maybe the arctic regions - it is going to be a waste of time. Even if significant finds are made - are they likely to touch the sides with massive reduction in existing production, huge increases in demand coupled to lower EROEI? Here is a simple concept. Go and buy 20kg bag of rice and treat that as your main source of food. Start with 100g and increase your consumption by 2% per meal, 2 meals a day - sooner or later you will run out - and increasing consumption does not make the stock increase. You will eat the first 10kg inside 28 days and the second 10kg inside 13 days. If you then suddenly find another 10kg of rice in the cupboard (and assuming you don't have to throw 30% of it away because of weavels) you will consume that at the same growth rate in just over a week - hardly a solution to the problem. Still if you are old right now - it is not a problem, if you are under 60, you may experience some of what is to come 3DBob
  7. That's OK, Re UK Coal Best thing that ever happenned to this country, was a let-up in its exploitation. Increasingly over the past 30 years we have been importing fantastically cheap processed coal in the form of goods, principally produced in China. When this is burnt out - we'll still have the stuff in the gound..... remember, people can stop shipments, turn off pipelines and flick switches - but if we have the energy in our boarders - it is very difficult to deny us its use. Long live the remaining paltry UK coal endowment (until we have to use it) 3DBob
  8. A couple of points being missed here, First France has problems generating from Nuclear in hot weather - and has relied on importing from neighboring nations France Imports from UK as 1/3 of Nuke station capacity fails and here Faulty energy security As climate change results in more extreme weather (seams much more hot and for longer in France) this looks like it will become more and more of a problem. It is in Frances Interest to build N stations in UK that is surrounded by cooler water and more northerly - think about it. Secondly Uranium mining alone is not sufficient to keep current reactors at capacity - indeed Nuclear Disarmament over the past decade and into the future has and will for the forseable future make up the shortfall - it is even a stated aim. Nukes to Power the worlds reactors Both America and Russia mined the best reserves for 30 years to get this stockpile and are now diverting it to power reactors under the noble pretense of "disarmament" Where I live in India, there is a cold war on between Russia and America on who supplies India with Fuel. There is enough Uranium for the worlds current reactors to run for 50 years - however it seams like EVERYONE is building reactors and the good stuff is being burnt. What happens when the fuel supply is a trickle compared to the demand - You have to process a HUGE amount of rock to get n fuel. In Tamil Nadu - Russains have just helped the Indians to build 2 X 1 terawatt reactors, Both on stream now - the Indians have struck a deal for many more - these eat a lot of fuel. so 50 years at 2007 burn rates - how many years at 2015 burn rates and how fast will the poor-ore mines produce fuel and what happens when the russians have blown their load? Read the article, 20,000 warheads powers US reactors for JUST 2 years!!! Not really security.... One could argue that dropping them on the 20,000 most densely populated US cities would give much better long-term energy saving return - not that I am proposing such a course of action. The decommisioning is just spending ones savings to keep an unsustainable lifestyle going just that little bit longer. My 2c 3DBob
  9. The other problem with Dubai its low indiginous population. It can't just call on bank of taxpayer to sort out its problems, Like GB did. Using available wiki numbers, just 17% of its 1.4m population is UAE nationals - meaning that only 241k people are liable for its 80bn of debt this is 1/3 smaller population than Iceland and means a per citizen debt of US$ 330k. The debt per man/woman/child in Iceland is around US$ 190k making Dubai per native debt over 70% higher. Worse though is that some financial bodies are reporting total Dubai sovereign debt at nearly double this - meaning US$ 160bn - this would be US$ 660k per head - or nearly 3.5 X bigger problem than iceland. As a pont to note 51% of Dubais residents are Indians, possibly the largest group from Kerala which are low-paid and even indentured labour ( in debt to Indian "Visa/agency" companies) B.
  10. I was on the plane to Kerala (Southern India) from Dubai on Sunday morning as I do regularly as it is where I live and work. I was sitting next to a guy that said he was a principal in a major Dubai Estate Agency, he said that prices are 60% off peak and he expects a further 20-30% drop next year. That would be a potential 72% off peak..... This is what happens when people loose faith in a states potential..... Does not bode well for UK if both gov and personal debt cannot be paid down. B.
  11. What properties sell for influence what people ask for with a smidgeon of sentiment thrown in. Also if block sales are coming onto market as rentals - adjusted yields dictate what BTL investors will pay and this has an influence on what value EAs advise clients to ask for. B.
  12. It is the fact that for many people sitting on a pile of dollars - UK prices are now not so cheap at 1.67 as apposed to around 1.4 I know of a company that is specialising in buying very large blocks of re-possed and freshly constructed properties off banks and construction firms respectively and selling them at a discount to investment funds and High net worth individuals whose assets are in dollars. The result is that large numbers of properties that should have been reaching market are being syphoned off at a discount to wealthy domestic and foreign investors. This has two effects - it keeps large numbers of properties off the "official" market and supports construction co. and banks balance sheets. Discounts are around 40% of market value. Enjoy 3DBob
  13. Every few years in councils and private companies alike, contracts for provision of services are put out to tender and it is often required by the organisation that multiple tenders are considered. Normally the lowest price for equvalent service is taken on board. Hence many council service providers get paid pittance for their important role in society. Why then are there so many throughers in the management of councils. I would like to see leading council posts being put up for tender every few years. Lower paid members in the council with experience, external applicants of equivalent capacity and the existing encumbant can apply for the posts. A group of local tax payers can be selected a la jury service to attend a town hall meet where each candidate (who shall not have previously met) on a shortlist states their credentials and is then vetted buy PR and the top five are, in the same meeting, requested to put in a closed bid for how much they would fill the role for - the lowest price wins - the figures are revealed by a member attending the meeting. RON would be allowed. This way we should get competent staff working for a market based rate. 3DBob
  14. I think people might be mising the con here - during the boom, flippers that sold during the boom may have made a tidy packet on the capital gains. HOWEVER.... the commons only pays for interest on these properties - so if(when) the offending MPs loose their jobs - they might find themselves forced to sell their houses at the bottom of the market - thus making a HUGE loss..... If they can convince the Taxpayer that they should be NATIONALISED then they would set the prices so they didn't loose out - worse still, they could set them at a level (say Sept 2007) that would crystalise profits for the errant scoundrels creating a loss for the poor unsuspecting taxpayer. I say, only implement a law like this AFTER the next GE (hopefully in a few months time) and let the greedy swim in shit of their own making. 3DBob
  15. This has been an interesting day. I nearly felt sick at the blatent property VI of the likes of Brown, Darling, Mandleson. This is NOT necessary to perform their duties, having a warm bed and not starving and being at parliament/constituency allows them to fulfill their duties. WHY CANT THEY USE THEIR SALARY like everyone else for DISCRETIONARY purchases like Fake beams and new TVs. The puke moment was mandlesons defense - claiming that it was smearing that he was some how improving his house for gain. I ask anyone - if they went to view a house and it had roof problems - would they not demand a significant discount - any idiot knows that - maintainance my ****, how on earth should that come from my taxes. It is clear to me now why a politician needs to employ family for £40k a year - the family member needs to trawl through all of their privaledged living expenses and collate those things they can get away with claiming back. Disgusted. I agree with the person that suggested that the queen should dissolve parliament - this has gone too far.. Anyone fancy putting up another petition asking the government to request that the Queen disolves parliament. I can't believe people arn't rioting - we need a revolution. 3DBob
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