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Its-Already-Crashing

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About Its-Already-Crashing

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  1. A 5000 square foot new home in Lewes - East Sussex, where I am, would be $1.5 million so i make that 7 times as much as our American cousins
  2. http://www.mercedeshomes.com/find_home/com...&quick=true 4587 SQ. FT. 5 beds, 4 baths $569,990 $459,900 Save $110K! (20% reduction) Click on Concept 4876 (bottom of page) and look at the actual interior & exterior pictures. It makes the average new home in the UK look like a complete and utter hovel. Unbelievable!
  3. I just called them, and it is indeed an "Autumn Sale" due to the market slowdown on properties that are "lingering". It is a national initiative throughout the group. What made me laugh was that he insisted that the prices are not falling. I said, so you "admit the market it slowing and therefore you are responding by reducing prices and yet you maintain that prices are not falling?" He started side stepping in only the way that ea state agents do. So i cant be bothered to give you his bulls*** excuses
  4. "I have bought some long-dated calls on the Yen (the right to buy at a later date) " May I ask what date? Thanks
  5. What is a reasonable amount for a landlord to increase the rent per annum? My rent has remained unchanged for 3 years and now the landlord wants to increase it by 15% Does this seem reasonable? Thanks..
  6. I hope it will be worse. Serious question, what do you think has stopped the slide happening so far in UK? Why has it happened in USA and not UK?
  7. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=aehGqLevnARI Europe Faces Infection From U.S. Home-Price Fall: Matthew Lynn By Matthew Lynn Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- In the last decade, real-estate prices in Europe have moved in one direction -- up. That may be about to change. In the U.S., a booming property market has stalled. Plenty of people think it may be facing a full-scale crash. If that happens, it would be complacent to assume that Europe could avoid the fallout. In the past 10 years, Spanish property values have more than doubled, while home prices have tripled in the U.K. and quadrupled in Ireland, according to figures compiled by Deutsche Bank AG. It's easy to make money in those kinds of markets. House-price growth across the region has moderated this year, according to real-estate advisers Knight Frank LLP. Residential-property values in France gained 9.4 percent last year, compared with 15 percent in 2004, while Irish prices rose 9.4 percent in 2005 versus 10.1 percent the previous year. In both countries, Knight Frank predicts prices will increase 7.5 percent next year, very healthy when you consider the gains already made. The emerging economies of eastern Europe will experience the most dramatic growth, with Lithuanian values expected to expand 20 percent next year, while Latvia and Slovenia won't be far behind. Even the perennially disappointing German market is expected to have modest price gains as it emerges from a prolonged economic decline -- Knight Frank expects home prices there to rise 2.5 percent in 2007. In the U.S., however, the outlook is a lot cloudier. The National Association of Realtors this month predicted prices of new homes will drop for the first time in 15 years. Sales of new and existing homes may fall 9.4 percent to 6.76 million in 2006 from a record last year, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Oct. 10. Impact on Europe There is room for debate about the scale and duration of the decline. Yet nobody would dispute that the market is falling. The issue is whether a slowdown in the U.S. will infect Europe. Not everyone thinks so. There will be ``no impact of U.S. price drops on Europe -- save for a decline in confidence potentially by mid-2007 if the U.S. economy moves into a downturn,'' Liam Bailey, the head of residential research at Knight Frank, said in an e-mailed response to questions. Others aren't so sure. In a recent note, Deutsche Bank analysts Tobias Just and Stefanie Ebner said there was a serious risk of ``contagion'' between the two markets. The U.S. has very different demographics from most of Europe. Yet there are four reasons to think that a decline in U.S. real estate will be bad news for Europe. `Similar Growth Pattern' First, history tells us that the two markets generally move together. ``Over the past 20 years, most housing markets on both sides of the Atlantic followed a similar growth pattern,'' Deutsche Bank said in its study. ``Considering all these interdependencies, European markets might well be affected by the slowing U.S. housing market.'' Just as European and U.S. equity markets tend to follow the same cycle, it turns out property markets do as well. The relationship has held in the past -- and there is no reason why it shouldn't this time around. Next, valuations are stretched in Europe just as they have been in the U.S. market. With the exception of Germany, house prices have been increasing much faster than wages at a time of slow European economic growth. In countries such as Spain and Ireland, house-price growth rates have been matching those of the U.S. market. Many people are getting priced out of the market -- eventually that will reduce home values. Third, the European Central Bank may not have been raising borrowing costs as fast as the U.S. Federal Reserve, yet it has boosted its benchmark lending rate five times since December to 3.25 percent and shows few signs of stopping. The capital markets are global. As money gets more expensive it will restrict European home buyers as much as U.S. property purchasers. U.S. Recession? Finally, a U.S. housing decline could help cause a recession around the world. If that happens, it will hurt European real- estate prices. More broadly, a dip in the U.S. will damage confidence, and the property market is reliant on sentiment. If people think prices will drop, they almost certainly will. In the medium term, house prices depend on how much money people can afford to borrow and whether they have employment. A drop in global economic growth and rising interest rates would make it impossible for European real-estate prices to continue their gains of the past few years. With the U.S. market cooling, the times of unbridled price increases in the European home market will soon be over. (Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.) To contact the writer of this column: Matthew Lynn in London at matthewlynn@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: October 29, 2006 19:08 EST
  8. Who cares about HPC when you have got one of these? http://ultimatesecurehome.com
  9. The US based Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the housing industry, especially the single-family industry. The survey asks respondents to rate general economic and housing market conditions. The survey is used by the Federal Reserve Board as one key measure of the health of the economy. The HMI is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices, calculated for three key single family series in the survey: Present Sales of New Homes, Sale of New Homes Expected in the Next 6 Months and Traffic of Prospective Buyers in New Homes. In July 1990 the NAHB Housing Index which tracks US property prices dropped to 32 (the current level) and that was the start of the early ‘90s recession.. The Housing Market Index has never before been at or below 32 outside of recession. The chart in the URL below shows the S&P 500 Index. Look at the relationship between these two charts. http://www.housepricecrash.0catch.com (a couple of annoying pop ups need to be clicked away before you can view the charts)
  10. So what is the best or most acurate measure of house prices?
  11. Admittedly maths is not my best strength, however I have noticed some inconstancies in the land reg. property prices. I wondered if someone can shed some light on it..... Looking at the region "WEALDEN" during last quarter of 2005 and the 1st quarter of 2006, I cant understand why they are showing that the overall average price has risen from £232141 to £239712 in this period, when they are showing that the average price of a detached house has gone down, the average price of a semi detached house has gone down and finally the average price of a flat/maisonette has gone down. So how can the overall average price have gone up if all 3 categories have gone down in the same period? Can someone explain this? My maths may well be letting me down here, so this could just end up as a maths/stats lecture form someone here Oct - December 2005 Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flat/Maisonette Overall Region/Area Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales WEALDEN 338777 267 205388 262 173725 139 122780 122 232141 790 Found 1 records. Displaying page 1 of 1. Jan - Mar 2006 Detached Semi-Detached Terraced Flat/Maisonette Overall Region/Area Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales Av Price £ Sales WEALDEN 330103 240 204437 193 173773 99 114972 67 239712 599 Found 1 records. Displaying page 1 of 1.
  12. "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." In my opinion, there are many naked swimmers, especially in the real estate market..... " Quote From Warren Buffett" Who are you going to believe the VI's or these 3 guys with no vested interests. I dont know if it has been posted before but anyway, its well worth posting again.... Smart Investing Amidst Real Estate Mania by Robert Kiyosaki Utility Links Printable ViewEmail this PageTuesday, January 24, 2006 In early summer of 2005, I sent a warning to the Rich Dad community that the real estate market was cooling down. After all, we know that all booms go bust eventually, and every party comes to an end. While many readers thanked me for the words of caution, many others sent me hate mail. An angry real estate broker called me and said, "Are you trying to ruin my business?" The angry readers should draw insight from something Warren Buffett said: "For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values. What doesn't work is when you start doing things that you don't understand or because they worked last week for someone else." The sage of Omaha sums up pithily: "The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it's going up." Personally, I would say, "The dumbest reason to buy anything is because the price is going up." Yet that's what people do when they invest. They generally don't buy high-priced things when they shop. Fools Rush In For example, if Safeway had a sale -- 25% off everything in the store -- the supermarket would be swamped. Yet, when the stock market or real estate market has big discounts (often called a crash or a burst bubble), that same shopper runs away from an asset sale. Instead, they wait until prices are high and other fools are bidding them up further to finally buy. I estimate that 90% of all investors invest for price movement, not value. If prices begin to escalate, as they did in real estate from 2000 to 2004, amateurs turn pro and begin buying real estate to flip -- for example, buying a home for $200,000 and then selling it for $250,000 a few months later. Most stock market investors do the same thing. In investor language, flipping is known as "the greater fool theory of investing" -- you're buying something not to own, but in the hope of selling it to someone who's a greater fool than you. The Coming Crash We all know a real estate crash is coming. The problem is we don't know when. One of the more popular predictions floating around is that investors are now moving out of real estate and back into the stock market. Another prediction, which I think is valid, is that the real estate market is set to crash because of the high costs of building materials. But such rumors only affect those investors who, as Buffett says, "take their cues from price action rather than from values." During such periods of high prices and volatility, it's even more important to pay attention to value, more than price. Yet, it's one of the toughest things to do -- stop and focus on value -- especially when prices are volatile in either direction. It's difficult to resist the urge to sell when prices are dropping and buy when they're rising. The Best Time to Buy Take market crashes. I love them because that's the best time to buy -- finding true value is a lot easier during such periods. And since so many people are selling, they're more willing to negotiate and make you a better deal. Although a crash is the best time to buy, the market's high pessimism also makes it a tough time to do so. I remember buying gold at $275 an ounce in the late 1990s. Although I knew it was a great value at that price, the so-called experts were calling gold a "dog" and advised that everyone should be in high-tech and dot-com stocks. Today, with gold above $500 an ounce, those same experts are now recommending gold as a percentage of a well-diversified portfolio. Talk about expensive advice. My point is that this current period is a tough time to buy or sell. Real estate is high, interest rates are still relatively low, the stock market is rising, the U.S. dollar is low, gold is high, oil and gas are high, and there's a lot of money looking for a home. So the lesson is: Now, more than ever, it's important to focus on value, not price. When prices are low, finding value is easy. When prices are high, value is a lot harder to find -- which means you need to be smarter, more cautious, and resist your knee-jerk reactions. A final word from Warren Buffett: "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." In my opinion, there are many naked swimmers, especially in the real estate market. Take market crashes. I love them because that's the best time to buy -- finding true value is a lot easier during such periods. And since so many people are selling, they're more willing to negotiate and make you a better deal. Although a crash is the best time to buy, the market's high pessimism also makes it a tough time to do so. I remember buying gold at $275 an ounce in the late 1990s. Although I knew it was a great value at that price, the so-called experts were calling gold a "dog" and advised that everyone should be in high-tech and dot-com stocks. Today, with gold above $500 an ounce, those same experts are now recommending gold as a percentage of a well-diversified portfolio. Talk about expensive advice. My point is that this current period is a tough time to buy or sell. Real estate is high, interest rates are still relatively low, the stock market is rising, the U.S. dollar is low, gold is high, oil and gas are high, and there's a lot of money looking for a home. So the lesson is: Now, more than ever, it's important to focus on value, not price. When prices are low, finding value is easy. When prices are high, value is a lot harder to find -- which means you need to be smarter, more cautious, and resist your knee-jerk reactions. A final word from Warren Buffett: "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." In my opinion, there are many naked swimmers, especially in the real estate market. Here is the link http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/2329
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