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Everything posted by chandellina

  1. "The U.S. is a culture vacuum." gee- where does Britain - and the world - get xx% of its films, music, art shows and theatre productions from? That's a pretty ignorant and sweeping statement from someone who travels there - presumably you are excluding major cities from that comment?
  2. This surplus is just one more thing though that makes it harder for rents to rise.
  3. oh, I also wanted to say - I wonder if this view discounts the power of the media, particularly as it is written by an economist in the U.S. who is not exposed to the headlines everyday. Then again, sometimes being an outsider gives one the best insight. Maybe oil prices explain slowdown, maybe rate rises do - but I personally think the headlines play a big role in consumer behaviour.
  4. so...what do you all reckon? has the City become too sanguine about rates?
  5. unemployment figures may be fiddled but it is still extraordinary low by any measure. this will eventually drive up inflation.
  6. do see my post on possible hikes over 5% on higher inflation. Low unemployment is a serious inflationary pressure.
  7. More interesting insight from Carl Weinberg at High Frequency Economics. There is something for everyone here, bears and bulls. The implication seems to be this is just a dip in house prices but the BoE will soon enough have to get really serious about handling inflationary pressures with more rate rises ... ultimately the bears win... The City, and perhaps the MPC, is speculating that the slowdown in retail activity and housing prices over the summer months is a result of the BoE's base rate hikes since last November. We have always thought that to be an ambitious assertion. The change in ba
  8. 1) Market view - Bear 2) Market postion - Prospective FTB 3) Area of Country - Central London - SE1 south bank 4) Occupation and Employer - Confidential 5) Highest Level of Education - Masters Degree 6) Age - 32
  9. yes, I was just looking at some FX research from Mellon that notes: the Halifax index refers to mortgage transactions at the time they are approved rather than when they are completed. That means they are a few months out of date and faill to pick up price slippage between approval and completion. Also they may refer to transactions that are never completed. These are common features in a weakening market where buyer confidence is waning.
  10. Halifax data is out tomorrow (Wed.) morning.
  11. What does it matter if the pound drops in value? That is better for the economy - it means more exports and a stronger manufacturing sector. Plus, the dollar is still due for a big fall, so prices on imported goods from Asia and the U.S. shouldn't rise sharply either. Some currency strategists live and breathe by interest rate rises as a direction for the currency, and to be sure, higher yields play a big role. However if you look at U.S. rate cycles over time, half the time the dollar fell in value when rates went up and half the time it rose with rates. You can't really draw a conclusion. N
  12. hey - i didn't write it - so i can't say how the figures were arrived at. It doesn't seem too difficult to measure though. one thing that has confounded me a bit though is a presentation i went to at a big City fund manager around Feb. 2003, just before Iraq. They did a big thing on oil, and how if the price went above $30 a barrel for a year it would shave half a point off of GDP (U.K.). I have to find the notes - maybe I'm remembering it wrong but I don't quite get how manufacturers relying on oil products for raw materials and or transport have been dealing so well ...
  13. good story. Even scarier than the Moho units is this: http://www.abito.co.uk/ I just don't see it happening.
  14. In light of talk that interest rates have peaked or will peak at 5%, I thought I'd post an alternative view. High Frequency Economics chief economist Carl Weinberg has a different take on the reasons for the slowdown in U.K. retail sales, mortgage lending and other factors slowing the economy: We see an interesting symmetry of non-thinking going on in the City of London and the United States. As always, we see it as our job to illustrate non-thinking whenever we see it happening. Let's take a look, then, at what people are not thinking about in Britain. The scoobie in the City is that Brita
  15. "Also, how could interest rates be LOWER than inflation (at least, for any period of time)? Real interest "rates" can be assessed by subtracting inflation from the rate, to get a real interest figure. If interest rates were LOWER than inflation that would mean that money would be lent at a loss, as the profit the lender would make through lending the money would be less than the devaluation of that profit. " better ask Greenspan about that one ... real interest rates have been lower than inflation for quite a while in the U.S.
  16. Britannia Building Society will lend 2-4 people EACH 3x their income - so a couple could have a 6x combined and four people making 25 grand could buy a place worth £300k. wacky, eh? (see www.sharetobuy.com)
  17. yes - just about every nook and cranny in the financial markets is overvalued right now because there has been too much liquidity from all the cheap money our central banks have been giving us. but fear not, interest rate rises will take that soggy cash out of circulation and value will return to various investment instruments. i don't see anything wrong with a nice 5% or more rate on a savings account - you get a better yield than on many government bonds. U.S. 10-yr Treasurys are yielding less than 4%.
  18. yeah - slimy. The flat in my building that apparently is never going to sell (been on market since June 1 - price has dropped by £35k already to £265k) was delisted from one agent, who told me the owner had decided to rent it out. A new estate agent took it on. Then, two months later, the old agent put it on its site as "under offer." a blatant lie as the flat is still on the market with the second agent...
  19. i don't know - the number of FTBs has already dropped so much - almost by half from its norm over past 18 mos. or so and yet rents have not risen. I can only speak from my experience of London but there always seem to be heaps of available properties and I've never had a landlord who wasn't willing to cut the rent from the advertised price.
  20. ok - here's the £700k figure, thoughdoesn't sound like a done deal to me. from thisispoole.com: WHEN it comes to redesigning, the Milton sisters don't do things by halves. The sisters, from Poole, will be appearing on Channel Four's Property Ladder programme on Wednesday as they transform their run-down house in Lilliput into a miniature palace. What started out as a £100,000 project to reinvent their 1937 art deco home turned into a mission that cost them £240,000 - and the results are breathtaking, if not a little off-the-wall. When Channel Four got wind of what Natalie and Tanja w
  21. how do we know they sold it for £700k? (why do posters fail to answer the simplest of questions?!) well even at £700k, that gives them a pretty sad £66k in profit for a project that took months and they left their jobs for (at least the older one did). She also said she would never do it again. i can't imagine why she thought anyone would want decor so specific to her own taste. Those bathroom tiles were vile. the kitchen wasn't so terrible to me but again - such a matter of taste.
  22. LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. estate agency and financial services company Countrywide PLC (CWD.LN) Thursday gave a further sign of the cooling of the U.K. housing market, sending shares of housebuilders tumbling. The company issued its second warning about housing market conditions in six weeks, saying that the "cooler market" it highlighted in mid-August had continued throughout that month and into September. It also warned that impending regulations, in which householders trade in their mortgages to get cheaper loans, would likely slow both new mortgage activity and remortgaging. At 0807 G
  23. congrats, sounds like a good investment. so.. where is it? why is that such a secret?
  24. sorry to have duplicated with sledgehead's post here is ING's take on the data today More evidence that the UK housing market has peaked We have seen further slowdown signals from the UK housing market this morning with the British Bankers Association reporting that mortgage borrowing increased only GBP4.4bn in August. This is significantly lower than July's GBP5.1bn and was the weakest outcome since June 2002. This follows a house price survey from Rightmove who said prices were unchanged on the month. We will see the RICS house price overnight and that too is expected to disappoi
  25. LONDON (Dow Jones)--Total lending in sterling to the U.K. private sector rose strongly in August, but mortgage lending grew at its slowest rate since June 2002, the British Bankers Association said Monday. Sterling lending rose an underlying GBP13.6 billion in August, above the GBP10.8 billion increase in July, and also above the six-month average rise of GBP11.2 billion, figures from the Major British Banking Groups showed. Mortgage lending, however, was GBP4.4 billion higher in August, below the GBP5.1 billion rise a month earlier, and lower than the six-month average of GBP5.4 billion,
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