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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by chandellina

  1. i'm with you - i was a believer for a long time in the impending crash but meanwhile all i have to show for it is a massive increase in the rent i have to pay. unfortunately my partner is still convinced prices will fall in five years or so and would prefer to pay more in rent than mortgage in anticipation of the eventual bargains. i'm 36 and really fed with moving every year and living with other people's crap furnishings. i don't think i'd mind if we could find a decent place to rent and stay there, but that hasn't happened and we've moved 5 times in 5 years for one reason and another.
  2. i think it's ridiculous to think there is some sort of conspiracy among journalists, particularly as the property beat isn't exactly the stomping ground of the profession's highest paid members. i know many a poor hack either mortgaged to the eyeballs or drifting through their 30s in a shared house. just like many others...
  3. even tinier "designer" flats here: www.abito.co.uk
  4. response from ING economists, with prediction of house price fall: We remain particularly concerned about the prospects for consumer spending given increasingly gloomy evidence from retailers and a growing probability of a house price correction (we look for a 10% price fall in 05), which will negatively impact on consumer sentiment. The BRC recently reported that the Christmas trading period was the worst in a decade while consumer borrowing appears to be on a slowing trend. The situation will deteriorate further if, post election, the government has to either curb its spending or raise taxes in order to contain borrowing. Consequently, deflationary pressures on the high street look set to intensify. We are also worried by signs that labour market prospects are weakening with falls in the employment components of both the CIPS manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys seen in December. Coupled with the fact that the industrial sector is on the verge, if not already in recession, and energy prices look set to continue falling, we believe that inflation will undershoot the BoE's CPI forecast throughout the next two years. This will give the Bank of England the scope to respond to anticipated weakness in the UK economy. We expect two 25bp cuts before year-end.
  5. the dip was slight month on month but said to be the worst performance in decades for the xmas period. BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor table of data Same Store Total Dec -0.4% +2.5% Nov -0.2% +2.4% Oct +0.5% +3.0% Sep +2.0% +4.6% Aug +0.6% +3.2% July +1.8% +4.3% June +2.4% +5.0% May +3.7% +6.5% Apr +1.9% +4.9% Mar +1.3% +4.4% Feb +2.2% +5.3% Jan +3.8% +6.8% Dec -0.2% +2.3%
  6. but xmas retail sales sucked, so people are slowing down with the spending and borrowing.
  7. for sure, it was a ridiculous episode, and by no means represented typical buyers. I couldn't see why they didn't just rent - aged 23 and 26. Surely one or the other will have a partner at some point relatively soon and want the other one out but not be able to afford to buy their share. I thought the flats they showed all looked poor value for around £300k - especially the one they bought. There seem to be plenty of comparable 2-bed flats for around £250k in Islington. Key rule when sharing a flat - avoid getting bedrooms next to eachother, as there will be no privacy. I imagine the wall the separated the rooms was not part of the original structure - so even more likely to offer little sound protection. i loved how Kirsty implied she would jump at the chance to live in a tiny bedroom with just a bed and no bureau or desk. Also, how Phil and Kirsty played things both ways on the market being soft yet "this flat has gotten loads of interest" so they scared the girls into moving quickly. Obviously the owner knew he'd hooked a couple of suckers on his line. I just thought: these girls have no clue what it means to owe £100k each.
  8. does anyone know why pre-nups aren't upheld? what's the point of having one at all then?! i'd also like to defend womankind and say that... not all divorces are instigated by women not every woman is looking to take a man to the cleaners plenty of dads don't pay a bit to support their kids plenty of women support their partners/husbands peace.
  9. whoa. it looks shallow (and is, the way they've surveyed it). but if you think about it for a moment, there is nothing strange about wanting to own a place to lay your head and to support a family. In both the most primitive and the wealthiest of societies, having a sturdy home is a symbol of hard work and success. it also is basic that women would want a man with property - indicating stability and a place to raise children.
  10. and parts of the u.s. too! hence, millions of uninsured people.
  11. i don't reckon. isn't the income tax rate 22% up to £31,400? in the u.s., comparable rate for that salary at current exchange rate is 27%. factor in state - and city - taxes somewhere like NYC or in California and national insurance and council tax look piddling. plus, we do get something for our money in Britain - free healthcare.
  12. you are quite nasty on small points - i don't know why. you seem to really hate americans too, with your ridiculous generalisations. anyway, i didn't make a judgement on the us situation. my point is people manage (and pay for four years, not three). higher education is a bit of privilege, not so much a right, so it makes sense to me that students should help to fund its costs.
  13. ING has this prediction this morning of a 25bp cut in the spring: The UK has just released several weak figures. The December CIPS manufacturing survey has fallen more than expected to 53.7 from 55.0 in November. The market had been forecasting a reading of 54.4. Output fell to 54.7 from 57.1 although new orders rose to 55.5 from 55.2. However, the drop in employment to 48.7 from 50.9 is worrying. This takes it back into contraction territory and is the lowest reading since July 2003. It also adds to the gloom surrounding the outlook for the household sector, which is further reinforced by Bank of England data showing the lowest number of mortgage applications since September 1995 and the lowest mortgage lending growth since June 2002. Consumer credit growth is also slowing sharply with borrowing totalling GBP1.378bn in November versus expectations of GBP1.6bn. We remain of the view that the Bank of England will respond to the weakening housing market (we expect prices to fall around 10%) and the related slowdown in consumer spending. Indeed, the latest MPC minutes suggest that the committee is starting to react to the weaker data, which could see a 25bp cut as early as the spring.
  14. I thought the article presented a very limited picture of the working life of graduates. To start, it has never been unusual for graduates to work at lowly-paid or low status jobs straight out of uni. Even traditional degree subjects don't necessarily have a straightforward career path and many graduates don't really have a clue what they even would like to do. However if you look at the longer term work experience of graduates, I would wager that the majority do end up in jobs requiring or preferring university qualifications within a few years - and certainly make more money over the duration of their careers than non-graduates. My own experience: one year post - uni I worked as a record store manager, the same job I had during my last year of university. I then moved on to six months in a clothing store before finally landing a "graduate" job as a receptionist at a publishing house (with even worse pay than working in retail). But once in a profession, I quickly became a marketing manager, doubling my salary within three years. I know many graduates with similar career trajectories. Also, I contest that student debt is debilitating. For one thing, it is a fact for better or worse that many students are subsidised by their parents during and after university. But even with no outside help, it certainly is possible to pay off student loans, particularly with zero interest. there is plenty of whining about student loans and I can only direct the complainers' attention to the U.S., where student grin and bear it and just get on with paying them back. (at often hefty rates of interest too.)
  15. I love this fantasy: "Buyers are returning, and although there are not as many sales going through at the moment, once they realize there will not be any further significant falls, the market will pick up," Richard Hair, President of the NAEA said. I see nothing in the release to support his prediction there won't be further significant falls.
  16. note that participants will be buying with strangers, who may have very different goals and financial futures. that's wack, i say.
  17. The dollar has already fallen sharply in recent weeks - not so much vs sterling but that is because of our own lack of rate rises and economy slowing down. but if us rates go up, that could hurt sterling, furthering the slowdown and certainly not encouraging rate rises.
  18. I don't quite understand that chart. According to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, first-time buyers accounted for 28% of purchases in the third quarter of 2004. Until 2002, the percentage was above 40% and was 55% throughout the early '90s. It has steadily been dropping since 2002. http://www.cml.org.uk
  19. LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. gross mortgage lending rose in September, but for the first time in four years the increase was lower than the year before, according to data from the British Bankers Association released Wednesday. Total mortgage lending rose by GBP16.273 billion in September, down from August's increase of GBP16.610 billion, and below the GBP16.917 billion rise reported a year earlier. In seasonally adjusted terms net lending rose by GBP4.4 billion. This was unchanged from August's report, "reflecting little change in demand," the BBA said. "Within mortgage lending, gross lending was, unusually, lower than for the same month a year earlier," said BBA director of statistics David Dooks. Wednesday's data mirrors mortgage lending figures released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders last week, which showed lower lending increases than in the same month a year earlier. The Bank of England should welcome the BBA data as they show the economic slowdown is continuing. This will give the central bank more time to monitor the economy and inflation levels, and supports expectations it will keep rates on hold at its November meeting. The number of loans approved for house purchases in September were 6.4% lower than in August. In September 59,905 loans were approved, compared with 64,032 the month before. "Net approvals for house purchase continued to slow, so consequently it would seem likely that underlying net mortgage lending will continue to be relatively weaker," Dooks said. The average house purchase loan approved in September fell to GBP111,100 from GBP112,100 in August, the BBA said. In September the total number of loans approved was 195,100 with a total value of GBP15.0 billion. This is 3.3% below the 201,700 loans approved a month earlier, the BBA said. Consumer credit was weaker in September than in August rising by GBP0.804 billion, compared withGBP1.140 billion. Credit card borrowing rose by GBP0.3 billion in September compared with a GBP0.6 billion rise in August. Demand for personal loans and overdrafts rose GBP0.599 billion, in line with the previous six months, the BBA said.
  20. PFI is excluded, as are various projects the government gives an explicit funding guarantee on. (like the Channel Tunnel Rail Link 2)
  21. the silliest quote I've read in a while: "While rising interest rates have influenced the recent run of house price falls, the key reason for the stagnating house price environment is that house prices have finally reached their peak in the current cycle," said John Wriglesworth, Hometrack housing economist.
  22. i'm sure there's already a thread buried somewhere about that program - but i thought she was fair, and realistic about what is going on... Though I didn't understand why she didn't just lower her price.
  23. Even journalists are being outsourced ... soon they could be writing headlines on the UK housing market from India! Reuters has moved its data unit to Bangalore and also is handling things like U.S. company bankruptcy news from there...
  24. not to harp but I'll take U.S. literature and art over its British counterparts any day ...
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