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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Sledgehead

  1. Ah yes, or what those in the know would refer to as 'horse-trading'. Ali G becomes an expert on it in this video shott back in the day (horsetrading starts @ 48 secs): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObDWxzQXbLQ
  2. All I heard was the usual specious nonsense. On why he thinks we need a second referendum: He goes on to propose that since nobody can agree on what type of Brexit to have, the question to the public in a 2nd referendum should be more prescriptive. He says he favours "Remain or Boris Johnson's version of Leave." Does he really suppose we are so stupid as to not realise that he has artificially narrowed the Leave vote, whilst leaving the Remain vote as wide as possible? Maybe, 2 years down the road, some Leavers do now see unforseen scenarios they favour less than Remain. But here's an obvious truth we also need to consider: 2 years down the road from a 2nd referendum, Eurpoe will look very different from now; who can guarantee that at that point, Remainers will not see unforseen scenarios they favour less than Leave? Will we then face a 3rd referendum? And why assume we'd stop there? The point is that "Remain" is not a single, well understood concept, any more than "Leave" is. That's because Europe continues to evolve. If that were not the case and Europe was "The Common Market" we joined back in the day, if we weren't faced with a Federal future, we would not even be having these discussions.
  3. The thing that amuses me about these "investments" is that they seem, by and large (maybe somebody will correct me here) to be made outside of the area over which the investing local authority has governance. How crazy is that? There's diversification and then there's just plain refusing to play to one's strengths. Surely, if you can invest in a shopping centre and then block other shopping centre developments in the vicinity, wouldn't you do that? Instead these bozos are placing bets on retail activity in areas where they can't even control parking spaces. That's just so dumb.
  4. stocks, swaps, puts, calls, fx, debts ... same old story ... always cut your loses.
  5. Maybe "intrinsic" was the wrong description. What I meant was most units of an asset class are created pari passu. It's impossible to have for instance one pound sterling being worth something when another is not. Similarly, share equity is created pari passu; if you own shares in a company, management can't simply declare which ones of the same class are worth something, with the rest being worthless.
  6. How on earth does that work? It's like saying all sheep (ever) have to be registered at the cattle market before a certain day, or you won't ever be able to sell them there. An item either has intrinsic value or it doesn't. Period.
  7. I am rather disappointed in the lack of imaginative shown by our conspiracy theorist friends on this topic. Kim, after ignoring America's attempts to progress talks, finally sends his big envelope on the very day somebody managed to crash one of the West's most important payment systems. Maybe the talks will include Pyong Yang's offer to stop 'rogue' elements in NK from repeating the incident on a bigger scale?
  8. Fine, but we were talking about trading. Trading can involve arbitrage (a supposed risk free way of profiting from price differentials), or market timing. We are talking here about the latter. Market timing, as a means to profit, has absolutely nothing to do with diversification, indeed, diversification is a supposed way of avoiding the hell of market timing. As for crypto, if you want it, why not make your own? As for buying somebody else's, who knows? People have made tokens in the past, based on available tech.
  9. How can it show anything until we know what the cause was? They've only told us it was a localized hardware issue. But they would say that, wouldn'y they? Distribution can't fix everything.
  10. It's nothing like running. I'll give you that much. The rest, you're just gonna have to learn yourself, cos like all of us, it's impossible to be told. Best done when you have no money and plenty of working life ahead. Worst possible time to 'learn'? When you take one full quarter of your pension pot tax free. So if that last bit isn't you, you are 10s of thou up already.
  11. Is it just me or did you just promote a way to add another layer of vulnerability to your payments?
  12. Didn't make the BBC 10 o'clock headlines, tho they did just mention it. They'd rather speculate whether Trump will meet Kim, talk about slightly more expensive jeans and bugg*red up railway time tables. They don't seem to realize that the next war, once we've gone cashless, is far more likely to be a take-down of the payment system; It's the modern equivalent of siege warfare. The fact that people have been unable to even buy train tickets or jeans seems totally lost on them. Meanwhile shops have been displaying "Cash Only" signs. Visa say it was the result of a hardware failure. Not a cyber attack. I repeat, this was definitely not a cyber attack. Customers report payments being taken despite card refusal. I'd love to get a sight of the protocols and source code on this. How can a customer be sent a "payment declined" message, yet have a payment apparently accepted (ie taken from them)? How does a "hardware issue" produce that issue?
  13. Credit card and Debit cards being rejected, forecourts backing up as drivers unable to pay for petrol, purchases abandoned at tills at shops and cafes etc, etc Question: are you cashless-fandom f**kers listening now? Visa network crashes and sparks card payment chaos
  14. Can I ask for how long you have been trading in total, and for how long you have been trading with TA. Also, do you use any other information besides price / vol (ie TA) and valuation ratios (fundamentals)?
  15. I think it's important to add that Black Swan's are only important in the long term, as, by definition, they have very low frequency (otherwise they'd be unremarkable). Moreover, Black Swan's are the rule breakers, the outliers, the things that you simply can't include in your market modeling, because to do so, will necessarily destroy your predicted profit. That lead the TA to adopt every shorter timescales. And that poses two problems: 1) Black Swans aren't extraordinary events per se. They are extraordinary events for a time-frame. So an Olympic Games might seem unremarkable to us as we've seen so many of them in our lives. But to a child they appear so extraordinary they can have a dramatic impact - take Eddie the Eagle for instance. Another example might be a large volcanic eruption. Yet in the time-frame of the planets life, eruptions are commonplace. So when you shorten your trading window, even unremarkable events become "Black Swans", potentially ruining your modeling efforts. 2) Commissions and spreads. You can have a model that tracks the market almost perfectly, but because you are trying to avoid long-term black-swans, you will need to be trading all those little swings. The overhead of dealing will destroy your profits if you don't trade in size. And trading in size increases your stress, and stress makes for mistakes.
  16. What Sting is actually describing here is not so much poker (poker can be skewed by understanding 'tells') as roulette or trading using TA. Most reasonably cerebral people, especially technical sorts, understand that there is no such thing as a "hot" or "cold" number on a roulette table. But TA avoids this instant dismissal by invoking (as its full name suggests) the rationale of empiricism and statistics. That makes TA the ultimate addiction trojan for the technically bent mind. So while most technical sorts would deplore the idea of losing their minds to an addictive psychoactive drug, almost all are bewitched by the idea of understanding the nature of things through numbers. And many will believe that when it comes to markets there is indeed a secret geometry of chance.
  17. Absolutely. Crutches everywhere to suit all kinds and all pockets. And thank whatever for that! Personally, I'm glad I can dismiss level 42 data, or whatever number it is we're up to now. I'd hate to think that if only I'd taken a second mortgage for just that little bit more granularity, everything would be so much easier.
  18. Yeah, Santayana 'n all that. Trouble is, you spend long enough trading and you hear 'em all, and they aren't all as funny as "how do you make a small fortune in the markets? - start with a biggun!" A for instance: "All you need to make a mint in markets is ignorance and a bull market." 'course, a trader would not allow himself to think he had a dependency on the general direction of a market: that's for buy-n-hold suckers. The inconvenient truth however, is that even the sworn medium/longterm agnostic still needs to take a view - and get it right - or face a hard slog akin to walking up a descending escalator. But traders need crutches like Nadal needs to lift his sleves from his shoulders, and TA, with all its signs and symbolism is just about as good a crutch as has ever been devised. It gives you a sense of having worked for it, a sense of 'doing all you can' (cos what really can anyone do who can't hack the exchange?). And if that gives you a good night's sleep when you are playing the game central bankers have driven you to, who can argue with that?
  19. Looking at a preview of the Victoria Derbyshire show, I see that Acorn got themselves a slot on the show this morning (and this is not nothing; the same show seems to have single-handedly changed the rules over when surgical meshes can be used). Acorn appear to be having success, even where councils are refusing to get involved. Basically, they get together outside a rogue landlords house and picket them until action is taken (!). It strikes me that astronomical house prices in the capital etc are drawing more and more professionals into the 'tenant class', and these people know how to use the law to their advantage. And some of these types are seeing an opportunity to make a name (and career?) for themselves in this field. So this could be a much bigger deal than forum members are anticipating. Acorn also fund raise. I'm not sure how these funds are currently deployed, but if it's anything like a union, the funds could end up being used to support tenants who are in dispute. Tenants are usually keen to keep the peace for fear of ending up homeless for the duration of a dispute. Imagine if the alternative to the streets was a comfortable hotel. In such circumstances, I can imagine a time when tenants are happy to take action over very minor problems. Then again, landlords have only got themselves to blame in that regard. We've all see the slum-landlord shows. Decent landlords everywhere should have realised they'd get tarred with the same brush and pushed for more safeguarding of tenants. But that never happened. Instead they played the victim, blamed tenants, and now we have a tenants union that seems to be growing big teeth. Acorn
  20. There's the fingerprints of another boomer story in there as well: So tony is retired at 48. And they are helping with rent. Anyone else suspect over-generous public sector pension?
  21. Mining towns had some pretty high densities in their day (compared with anything else outside the capital). Now look at them. Density will only occur where people are willing to pay, and that means where there is work and credit. And where there is work, there is credit. Density without demand leads to crashes. Just look at the Spanish costas.
  22. hmm, the games rooms, saunas, kitchen-dinners, summer rooms, walk-in wardrobes, listening rooms, studies and ensuites I've seen in extended properties don't strike me as crisis easers. Just boomer play-things - which I should of course hastily add, and this goes without saying - are also "shrewd investments" (proberty innit).
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