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no dice

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Everything posted by no dice

  1. Take heart. I'm looking to buy in SW London and that will be my strategy exactly: opening offer -30% moving up to -25%. My rationale is simply to protect myself from the baked-in future price falls. Market sentiment has absolutely changed and now is the time to press for a bargain.
  2. There's a catch to that if you try take the cashier up on his promise: you won't get gold, just more paper. See here.
  3. Actual yields will only rise if they continue to buy property as prices decline, ie. average down. This is easy enough to do with shares, less simple with property at £200k a pop.
  4. And here's MoneyWeek's good description of the whole process.
  5. Where's the next support level then?
  6. Previous DJIA peak was 11,722 in Jan 2000. Assuming inflation of 2.5% PA for 6 years it'll have to reach 13,594 before I'll take the Krug out of the fridge. And anyway the DJIA records just 30 stocks - the S&P 500 gives a more complete picture: a peak of 1,527 in Mar 2000 and at just 1,336 today.
  7. Well, it isn't speculative money if you don't believe that there's a bubble in Spanish property - everyone's entitled to their opinion. Spanish house prices rose 173% from 1997 to 2006 - that's enough of a bubble indicator, never mind warnings from the OECD, IMF, etc.
  8. The Spanish property market certainly will need some underpinning (bad pun intended). Last year there were 715,000 housing starts in Spain compared with 225,000 in Britain, yet the UK has a population one third larger than Spain's. As with all bubbles, when the speculative money dries up the bubble will burst.
  9. Someone said that if you're not embarrassed by your opening offer then you're offering too much.
  10. The yanks must be looking enviously over the pond, hoping that they can achieve our miraculous 'soft landing'.
  11. Sounds rather like the fabled shoe shine boy offering stock tips just before the 1929 Wall St crash.
  12. I don't think that this is the last base rate rise we are going to see. Wage inflation in the UK is currently running at +4.1% PA - the highest rate of the 15 developed economies followed in The Economist. In addition, broad money supply (M4) is increasing at +13.7% PA - again the highest rate of the developed economies tracked by The Economist.
  13. The Money Morning e-mail today contained this chart showing M4 lending growth. The credit tap is still wide open in the UK.
  14. Warren Buffet may well have been referring to earnings in the quote you cite but he certainly wasn't referring to the PE ratio. PER is a forward looking indicator, not historical. An above average PER means that the market expects future earnings to increase relative to current earnings. Conversely a below average PER signals that the market expects future earnings to decrease relative to current earnings. CBRY closed today with a PE ratio of 13.62 - broadly neutral.
  15. Current Cadbury Schweppes dividend is 2.56%. There's better out there if dividend yield is what you want.
  16. We do indeed have a weakening economy and at first glance looser money could be used to stimulate an upturn. However, inflation is also creeping up and this is the quandry that the BoE finds itself in - lower interest rates further and risk stoking inflation or hold/tighten interest rates and stifle any growth prospects. IMO, the BoE is in inflation targeting mode as they don't want to have to write that 3% letter to GB, so the prospect of lower rates is off the agenda for some time. And it appears that the Gilt market feels the same way, with falling prices/rising yields for the last couple
  17. I don't think this is the case - a summons will be issued if you've incriminated yourself by answering the questions posed by the inspector. Seeing a TV in use through a window might be sufficient grounds to obtain a warrant to further verify whether a licence was held for that TV. Info taken from http://www.tvlicensing.biz/leaflets/pdf/tv_licence_guide.pdf
  18. With a bit of thick skin the harrassment can be ignored. The inspectors can knock on your door but they have no right to enter your property without a warrant. To obtain a warrant they must have reasonable suspicion that you are watching television without a licence. And I believe you must be informed when a warrant for whatever purpose has been obtained, prior to the warrant being served.
  19. If you don't like it, don't pay it! Payment of the TV licence is impossible to enforce, unless you incriminate yourself. Just happily toss those threatening reminders in the bin.
  20. London is already into year-on-year declines. Halifax Greater London seasonally adjusted index for Q2 2004 stood at 614.9, by Q2 2005 this was at 600.1 - a fall of 2.4%. Let's see what the Q3 data brings - should be out soon.
  21. I'd love to know what she's done to the place to add over £37k of value for each of the 14 years that she's owned it. This is the fundamental problem I have with the notion that somehow prices are anywhere near rational or sustainable at these levels - where has all this added value come from - £524k in this case?
  22. London SW15 Nov 03 - 123 Dec 03 - 129 Nov 04 - 87 Dec 04 - 57
  23. This made me think... The BoE is independent and its remit is to target keep inflation at around 2%, by tweaking the interest rate. But where does the inflation figure come from? A government department - the Office of National Statistics... so much for independence. Or should I be more trusting?
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