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Stefan

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  1. Two months ago the pound could buy you 1.33 euro, in April it will get you only 1.25... So Add another 5% drop for for the Governmens black magic trick with virtual money... See http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256 below on the same topic there are UK proprty value trends for other than Euro currencies. The crash is already here if you step out of the box...
  2. If this is to be 50% then we are about half way there. This little fact is jsut hidden under the monetary inflation here. But reveled when one looks on the value in virtually any foreign currency, except for USD which is sc***ed ups as much as GBP. the prices in EURO are already on steep downturn: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256 and the same for many other currencies, EVEN IF GBP prices are succesfully propped by government's virtual billions of punds lent to banks... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100439
  3. It is a good time to buy a boat. Provided you change punds into something else and live abroad while the worst happens. The beginning is quite clearly here. Looking on the UK property value from abroad, it's was down by more then 10% last month. And it gets worse THIS month even if prices in punds keep stable... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256
  4. It is not fuel prices, it is ALL prices with respect to MAJORITY of foreign curriencies... Pound sterling goes down... In the real terms the house price crash is ALREADY here. At best just over -10% at worst -30% discount of the top values in the past: Tis would be the optimistic calculation for THIS quarter of 2008 http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256 This is more pesimistic, but still this is JUST an application of the -1.1% monthly change reported recently by Nationwide. (NOT the -2.5 reported a while ago... but this may happen as well...): http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100649
  5. This would be " a third off in USD... Barring US and UK as most affected by the credit crunch and price inflation it looks like we have already a-fifth off here in the UK: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256 ... and given less optimistic assumption about the house price trend in GBP maybe already even a quarter off: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100649
  6. The CRASH is ALREADY here, It is just hidden by the overproduction of paper money... Just look outside... http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256 the same is in most cureencies except of USD...
  7. Well, as long as you are not in Zimbabwe that is OK. However, inflation means that your house is worth less even if local monetary "number" (NOT a "value") is stable or perhaps even increases. And one of the most independent measures of monetary inflation is the internationational exchange rate. The local inflation measures are all too easy manipulated for political reasons. Also, another benefit is that you can watch the foreign exchange rates day-by-day. Just try this with governmental figures... So, the question is whether the monetary giveaway of some 60 billion GBP to banks is, or is not. the Zimbawe's economy model. "It's no good to watch Mr Darling giving you brown on telly - you may end up in something smelly...." ;-)
  8. Given the most recent Nationwide data and the current exchange rates, the UK house prices will be 20% less in most of the international currencies than their peak values of the past few years. If global markets are considered we are already well into the crash: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256
  9. Note all these prices are quoted in British pound sterling. In case you have not yet been on a weekend break outside UK, do have a look how much the GBP lost in the last year - WHEREVER YOU GO. I guess this is due to the shower of paper money printed by the governmebt and given out to banks for the general entertainment of public... I say entertainment, because there is no real value in such money. Longer discussion of the impact of foreign excahnge rates on UK property value is here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...t&p=1100256
  10. I believe that the monetary bubble is already bringing the UK hose prices down. It just depends how you count. Looking from the perspective of global economy, it is already 13% down from peak and given the US predictions pararell looks even more gloomy at -25%: for discussion of the foreign currency echange impact and monetary inflation see: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1100537
  11. Assuming that the predicted US year/by/year decrease applies to Quarter 2 prices in the UK, the expected decrese of the UK property values in real terms, for this quarter, is 25% from its peak values For what I mean by REAL term UK Prices see my posts regarding the impact of foreing currency exchange rates: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;#entry1100537
  12. Well, I rather meant it in terms what is the real value of the UK property. I moved from Sweden 4 years ago. Have I kept my money in Swedish Kroner, the house crash would have happened for me already. The reason why the crash is not visible here yet is only because of the artificial money being produced by the government. I have been born in Poland, and lived through inflation of 1 000 000% over there in 1980'th. YUP, ONE MILLION PERCENT INFLATION - The polish zloty had to be devalued by a factor of 10'000 in early 90th. I would certainly hope that neither Poland (nor Zimbabwe) does not happen here, but the goverment clinging to power by pleasing crowds with paper money showers is a very dangerous thing... very dangerous indeed! As for property-porn, yes, might be. Again, judging by polish history, a lot of proprty and industry has been bought over there for rock-bottom prices. As for England, I guess, the question is rather about the sovereign funds who will eventually will spot the kill. My main intention was to show a VERY clear indicator of the house price bust. But bottom is still far below. The problem is whether the governement will decide to silently ruin the whole economy by inflation, or take blame for bank failures and a sreams from (unfortunately large) crowd of blatantly bad investors. I guess that tough decisions are not in tune before elections, as we have seen in the example of the storm after 10% tax rate change...
  13. This seems to be work in progress... And progressing. Below are the house price trends in foreign curriencies as I suggested in my original mail. The exchange rate data is from http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/data.html. It does look like UK prices dropped from their respective maximum values 10-20% for nearly EVERYBODY in the world, except the UK and USA.
  14. Just forgotten to add that, from the point of view of Euro land, the UK house prices are on the same level as they were in 2004/2005.
  15. I just considered shopping abroad and realised that, in the last year, the the British pound lost some 20% in reference to several foreign currencies, (if not all, barring perhaps US dollar). Thus, in fact, the house price crash has ALREADY happened to the same extent. Except that the monetary policy of the government hides it by giving essentially "worthless" money to banks to boost "economic numbers" expressed in pounds, rather than economy as such. I wonder if anyone has come across house price trends corrected by international exchange rates. An example prepared by me using exchange rate data from www.x-rates.com and house price trend from www.nationwide.co.uk is here: . This graph shows that in the crash is already in full swing, and only hidden by GBP inflation. Perhaps HousePriceCrash team could put preparing a more extensive review on the wish list. Stefan.
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