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House Price Crash Forum


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About Luke_Skywalker

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  1. Tradition Property released their latest monthly update today. The current prices are: 1 Year £163,549 3 Year £170,027 5 Year £176,504 These prices show a staggering upwards expectation compared with the figures from March which were: 1 Year £126,256 3 Year £111,873 5 Year £119,864 http://www.sprefs.com/index.php?page_id=169 These figures seem to suggest that either large falls have now been discounted or we can expect increased inflation in the coming years. Any views?
  2. The US markets are definately scheduled to be open tomorrow.
  3. Mmm, yes it is light-hearted but is still the general feeling out there I think.
  4. OK. So I know that a lot of people are going to shout at me. I will try to ignore the shouts and get to the kernels of good advice that I think that I might get. I know that house prices are dropping and that agents are in dream land with respect to guide prices. My challenge is that I am moving out ofthe UK. I currently live in owner occupied accomodation. I am a middle aged man with two kids who live with me part time, a wife (we have been married for a bit over 22 years and I would very much like this state of affairs to continue) and a dog. We derive little satisfaction from owning the house that we live in and want to sell our home here. Call this common sense. That said, we are not a charity and want to try to sell our house at a fair price. I define fair as the peak with a slight discount to reflect the HBOS index. My question is this : How do I get buyers to understand what fair value is and make sensible offers? I know that I cannot wait for the carnage to unfold and would prefer to sell now at a fair price. The "cost" of waiting is immense given the monetary value that we will lose if we cannot get shut.
  5. In our case, there is no chain. It is a simple cash purchase, they are str and we are paying cash. I spoke to our solictor about this again today and she is adamant that such a clause would be invalid. Naturally, we expect they would be very reluctant to exchange and complete on the same day. We shall ahve to see how things develop over the next few days. Fortunately, no uk depositor has lost money - yet!! Our concern is that the funds will have to sit in a bank account for at least a few days
  6. My view is that such a clause should be possible but having tried to put this clause in the contract for a current purchase, my solicitor is adamant the clause would be invalid. She is also of the opinion that the vendors solicitor would never accept such a clause. The alternative seems to be exchanging and completing on the same day.
  7. You're welcome to play at: www.spreadfair.com or www.igindex.com You'll find that the spreads up to end 2009 are pretty tight now with lots of money either side. It would take a decent chunk to move the market.
  8. Wow - talk about futures.........................I replied 47 minutes before you posted!!
  9. These are the best guide to where prices are going. People betting, with their own real money. Some backing falls, others backing bigger falls. All VI crap taken out.
  10. Where Did It All Go Wrong? Govan - 20 Feb 1951. HTH.
  11. On similar lines, I sent the following e-mail to local agents a month or so ago (the prices quoted and hence expected falls are greater now): Hi Despite the constant media reports, falling House Price indices, IMF warnings, etc it seems the reality of falling house prices is not yet hitting home with many of your vendors. To help persuade your clients that prices achieved in early 2007 are no longer realistic, the following website might be useful to you. www.spreadfair.com The site shows derivative house prices for the UK based upon the Halifax House Price Index. The index itself peaked at £199770 in August 2007 – this peak would have reflected sales agreed several months earlier, probably during the summer of 2007. If you click on ‘house prices’ on the left hand site, and then UK House Prices 2008, you can see where the derivatives market expects the Halifax Index to be in June, September and December 2008. Prices are also available for 2009 and 2010. As you can see, the current quote for December 2008 is around £170000 representing a fall of 15% from the peak. In addition, with interest rates running at around 6%, over the course of 2008 the fall will be around 20% in real terms. I appreciate that you probably know all of this and the sales in your office will give you a better view of the local market than I have but, I thought you may find the derivatives market a useful tool for discussing the market with clients. All the best
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