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House Price Crash Forum

a j

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Everything posted by a j

  1. All I see in my nondescript zone 4 suburb is BTL types grabbing everything going when the gross yield reaches somewhere near 5.5%. I can imagine that a large increase in interest rates (without compensating pay inflation) will blow everything apart, but without that what changes? With the government owning many of the banks and being about to guarantee mortgages for FTB you can bet they will try the printing press approach at the first sign of significant falls.
  2. Hi - thanks for your post - just noticed it. I went to have a look at Leytonstone this evening. Looks really good to be honest - not at all what I expected. Any general advice? What do you think of Upper Leytonstone and how would you map the area? It seemed a lot less upmarket than the Bushwood area to me (more upwards mobility)?
  3. Probably not a random sample, but people I've met recently who live in Tooting include commercial lawyers, senior accountants, publishers and managers in FTSE 100 type companies. Oh, and others with lower middle class incomes and serious gifts from parents. This is the new law of London sadly....
  4. £1,500 a month is still a pretty expensive part of London - comparatively speaking. I'd suggest that most people paying that much are sharing (or taking in a lodger) and/ or couple where its likely both earn more than £50k.
  5. a j

    Is It Game Over?

    My area of North London had gone up by about 25% over four years - if anything prices have been drifting down a little this year. You would need a really subprime level of interest on an interest only mortgage for it to be more expensive than the rent at the moment though.
  6. I'm not sure that family type houses get good rental returns (unless operated as executive lets or HMO's) or that the rental return calculation offers much of a valuation guide. In the same area (I guess - how far from the station are you?) a two bed flat costing £250-£300k would rent for £1200 per month. I can just about see how BTL can be attractive at that rate. Rental prices have now risen to the point where I'm no longer gaining by renting - decentish one beds have increased from £750 per month (with plenty of supply and room for discussion) to around £950 a month with little availability in 4 years
  7. I've been looking at prices in Southgate (much lower end than you though...). Seems to be booming at the moment sadly - more on the market then two or three years ago but at higher prices and tending to sell quickly. BTL appears to be a main area of sales - I see places move from the sale to the lettings area of Rightmove with disturbing frequency. Anyway, should have asked - how are you liking your new place? All working out well?
  8. Many thanks. I'd never thought of Bromley but those flats seem pretty decent. Do you know the area?
  9. I find myself with some of the issues that may have pushed you. Early 40's, waited a long time for a crash (2009... if only....), very frustrated with rapidly rising rents in London. I, like many people have an insecure job. I feel that I'm getting to a position where if I get a new position with my current employers which looks like it has any sort of longevity I might just need to buy something to escape the rental trap and the risk of spending years in contract positions unable to get a reasonable mortgage. Inflation looks a real risk right now. Whereabouts are you buying? Is East Berkshire also going into a bubble on a bubble?
  10. Could you post links for the type of places you are looking at around the £200k level? I've tried searching in that range and am not seeing much without some serious downsides these days (many fewer options than three years ago. If you are interested in working abroad wouldn't it be worth doing so before becoming encumbered with a mortgage?
  11. I'm thinking much the same. I would truly hate to be unemployed, stuck with a 12 month contract on an expensive flat and watching my savings disappear. Terrible though it is, for those with some cash in the bank buying property has to be a serious consideration simply due to the benefits system.
  12. Interestingly enough Connaughts plight was driven largely by underpricing work, and pricing on the basis of gaining additional works once they were established on contracts - as such they were very cost effective for their clients. Their client base is now in a state of turmoil as councils are looking to make significant savings and their current budgets are in many cases based on unsustainable cost levels from Connaught.
  13. Most of the Connaught staff will be covered by TUPE and transferred to whoever takes over the contracts - so not many job losses amongst employees. The bigger concern is all the contractors (many of which are small companies or individual traders) who will not be paid for works done, and who will potentially lose their income streams.
  14. I take it we are in the same line of work and have similar sources of information . I also anticipate some interesting news emerging.
  15. Window shopping in Bluewater I suspect. Does anyone else see a boom in coastal camp sites?
  16. I'm not sure you've picked a good example. Many logistics companies move their driver into planning/ routing activities when they get fed up of life on the road. A mathematical training is very useful for this, and indeed for pricing and optimisation. Agreed for most courses, but the more I see of different businesses the more I recognise the (often unsung) contribution of maths/ science graduates in developing processes and databases outside of the main IT functions, and a general ability to understand concepts the day to day management can't figure out.
  17. +1. I wonder what kind of society we are becoming. We choose courses where stating your opinion and considering the endeavours of others are the major activities of study, rather then courses where doing things and producing something other than verbiage matter. Have we selected passivity - criticing chavs for gossiping about reality tv whilst middle class youth gossips about history and literature?
  18. The fall in Hertford is pretty stunning. Does anyone local have any insight? I thought it was one of the towns people considered unlikely to drop by as much as others.
  19. I've been tracking the St Albans market by using Rightmove to indicate the best place I could get for £250k within 1 mile (ok - a Rightmove mile) from the Thameslink with some estimate on my part of the discount I would expect to negotiate over asking price. There has been a huge improvement over the last 6 months, with passable houses coming within range as opposed to ordinary looking 2 bed flats a year or so ago. From talking with an EA in the pub St Albans appears to be far worse hit relative to the rest of the country than I would have expected. Does anyone know anyone trying to sell at the moment to logic check this?
  20. This seems to be a common misconception. Other than a brief and painful spike the early 90's interest rates were pretty much in line with the rates in place when people bought, and had thus priced into their decision to buy. Blaming high interest rates for the 90's crash is not realistic - recession and overpricing were the real causes.
  21. Very true. The flats looked fantastic when new but the area is hardly first choice. £70k sounds about right to me for a decent flat in a borderline neighbourhood too far from the beaten path for professional tenants.
  22. Not sure, but now I'm involved in the world of high finance I'd like some tulip bulbs and a 2 bed two bath flat in Leeds. Do you think the government will buy these for me as well?
  23. In previous posts you stated that it would have been better to save more money and share a room with more people. Would you like to expand on this....
  24. The bus services are pretty poor so I'd focus on looking for places within walking distance of the Thameslink if you are going to commute each day. The traffic around the station is really heavy in the mornings so driving isn't much fun. If you can find somewhere suitable its well worth being within walking distance of the city centre to avoid having to drive in.
  25. I did a contract in Mt Isa and noted a large number of Philipina women. They all invited their friends over to work as Au Pairs and then introduced them to their husbands friends.
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