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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. Brilliant post - I guess you've seen the Stewart Lee "there's a horse in the next field; please come and stay Stew, it'll be great... bring some coke..." sketch? This one I posted above - they thought at one point they'd get 800K... on paper. Now at 550K offer they will be lucky to get shot of it below the 500K level. A paper cut. Who needs places like this anyway?
  2. This place near Lamberhurst, Kent has been on the market since at least 2009. Started off at 850,000 now asking 550,000 after a cunning re-listing. My link You have to contend with the A21 every time you leave the house, but other than that... what's wrong with it?
  3. Made me chuckle. Just in case the first photo wasn't enough they do a 3/4 profile angle so you can see it in context. The blurry photo of the pee stained mattress is class. 1a Grove Green Road, Leytonstone, London, Greater London, E11 4EG Terraced, Freehold, Not New Build £200,000 History 11-Aug-2005 Map (E11 4EG) Um...
  4. Thanks for cross-posting, I guessed it would be in Anecdotals. link to dark recesses of the forum aka Anecdotals Kent country houses... talk about a glut.
  5. You've made this point before and while I understand it, those who "are not giving it away" are not really in the market, are they? It is the down-sizers that have to sell that will set the downward price trend, not the kite-flyers. (And those very same kite-flyers might well become the panicky sellers in due course if their retirement plans really do rely on selling.) Top post HonestEA, a really comprehensive overview from the front line.
  6. Great chart. Do you have one for the last 12 months?
  7. You see it's just this sort of rash, knee-jerk reaction that makes me despair sometimes. I thought I knew you, Bruce.
  8. I wonder if there could be a more enlightened "safety net" for those gentle souls who don't wish to starve or freeze but also don't want to do some meaningless McJob. (Ironic name, serving food is actually useful... a lot of office jobs, not so much.) They would have to do something [for the collective] in return for the basics but they would not be forced to compete in a game who's rules they never had a say in. You could leave capitalism to those who are more materialistic and so have a 2-speed economy with voluntary participation. But maybe capitalism only works if you have some unwilling participants and no such safety net?
  9. You should see what GBP2M buys you in Singapore: not much. There is nothing really at the 200K mark. On some metrics London does represent good relative value and there is so much depth to the market. But I'm a believer in local rents underpinning prices and I don't think many foreign amateur investors would have a handle on how the UK/London has changed in the last 10 years (how real after tax earnings have been eroded). The game carried on for so long because young professionals didn't want to admit they couldn't afford it.
  10. Foreign buyers happy with the relative value after GBP decline and security of London. This applies to the 200K BTL segment in Woolwich as much as to the 2M+ trophy sector in Kensington. They really do not see how they can lose.
  11. Demographics. There will be many who need to sell to get on with their plan (house being their pension). They may see which way the wind is blowing and reduce now to get it done. As to your second point, Liz Jones is the exception that proves your rule (paid GBP1.575M + c.60K stamp duty for her Somerset farm house 5 years ago, now trying to clear GBP1.3M, under offer apparently... and trying to sell a parcel of the land separately at 250K).
  12. What about Down-sizers? Plenty of price reductions appearing in the GBP1M+ large house market.
  13. On the Felix Dennis scale they have unexpectedly become "comfortably rich". They have zero chance of growing this wealth. They are exactly the wrong age (late 40s going on 50s given their hard life up to now) for this to change their lives in any moral or inspirational way... they will squander it, whether by giving it away to people who then squander it, by buying over-priced assets, tax leakage and/or by creating drama (probably by leaving each other for younger partners as mentioned above). And what's up with their teeth?
  14. Huh? It's a term used in many threads you've posted to in the past and in some threads you started! google search practice
  15. Hah! Another example of hope winning over common sense. In faster moving markets, support and resistance levels form precisely because they are the price levels where many participants are trapped. In this case they were offered the wash and then unilaterally attempted to move the market 80K north. They haven't moved the market, they have left a resting order which will never be hit. Do they even realise people know what they paid? Ah! Shit! I've been shot! I don't fucking believe this! Can everyone stop gettin' shot?
  16. I'm glad you took it in the spirit intended. Going through the modeling exercise you are doing is excellent and will hi-light the key unknowns - but they will remain just that: unknown. BTW, when/if you are tempted to apply "probabilities" to certain scenarios, you know you are taking your model beyond its first-order usefulness.
  17. Exactly. There's no point trying to account for every detail when the biggie, will house prices fall*, is by far the main determinant of which is better. And for this you can only take a view, for if it were certain it would already have happened. *specifically, is the house you want to eventually buy going to fall in price after you buy or is it priced correctly today. All you can do in these scenarios is to reduce as much uncertainty as possible and make the best decision once you've mentally "made your bed": For the buyer: ensure you are not over-paying at the outset, getting a mortgage which allows over-payments, ensuring your house is in demand if you ever needed to sell it, that the house will meet your needs for several years (difficult for young people to know)... For the renter: make sure you are able to keep saving for a deposit while you keep your options open and are able to benefit should prices fall but do not fall behind if they don't. (If prices rise above your ability to save, then renting when you could have bought is clearly an error - no amount of back-rationalisation with a spreadsheet can change that.) So it comes down to being pragmatic, reducing uncertainty where you can and keeping options open for as long as possible. (This is from someone who generally loves spreadsheets, but is aware of the danger of false precision.)
  18. Your first line reduces to the statement "6% is better than 3%". OK, I'll give you that. But then you rapidly get out of your depth. The cash flow you should be comparing is 100k today (assuming that is the market value) versus an uncertain but likely lower price whenever you do wish to sell AND the option value you forego by holding on to this "high yield" asset as you cannot invest in any more attractive opportunities that arise. (Note that in some markets high yield is synonymous with junk. Rents will follow prices down, and the notional 500pm will fall into line with whatever is the correct market yield.)
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