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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. I read "Just to remind you (needless I am sure)" as a chummy acknowledgement that his readers do know some of this already. There's no need to be so prickly (some of you will never be satisfied) especially with someone who is actually pointing that out the Emperor has no clothes. Keep up the good work Pesto. In your own style.
  2. Not everyone can see the implication that 455 to 1 leverage means a 0.2% cushion, so I think a little tolerance is required. You should send him an anonymous letter.
  3. Yes, I feel like I could have written this: "For a start, we tend to believe that high property prices are “a good thing”. This, assessed objectively, is simply nonsense. In economic terms, high house prices act as a sink for enormous amounts of capital which could otherwise have been put to productive purposes. Rising house prices may boost demand, but this is purely temporary, whereas the extra debt which always accompanies property bubbles is all too damagingly permanent. Socially, of course, soaring property prices have blighted the lives of millions of young people. The older generation seems to think that the release of housing equity will fund a comfortable retirement – but who do they imagine they’re going to be selling their houses to? Martians? Well, it certainly won’t be to a younger generation which cannot afford current inflated prices. The property price correction has a long, long way further to go yet." I like to think of myself as sensible.
  4. I made a pithy comment. I feel pithy now.
  5. 92 new Ferraris were sold in Singapore in 2011 (not bad for such a small population, only about 1/2 million private cars on the road) and I expect the number to be well over 100 for 2012 - I see 3 or 4 a day. To put it into context Fiat only managed to sell 129. After the near 100% tax on new cars, the owner also has to fork out $80,000+ for the COE - the 10 year certificate of entitlement to drive here. So if you're in the market for a new car, may as well go the whole hog - hence BMW and Mercedes have >30% market share between them.
  6. "A remarkable opportunity to acquire one of the finest homes in Hale at an extremely competitive price. Woodcroft was valued at over £5m at the peak of the housing market in 2007. It first came to the market at what all agents considered to be a very realistic £3.75m in 2010. The house was withdrawn from the market because of the inactivity in the market and the vendors postponed their move. In Spring 2012, we were instructed to remarket the property at what we believed to be a very realistic price of just under £3m. Having failed to attract a buyer by mid August 2012, the vendors have decided to adopt an extremely innovative way of marketing by inviting best offers over £2m by 31/10/2012. The sale of Woodcroft is by no means a 'fire sale'; however, getting on with their life is more important to the owners than waiting for a premium price. As they purchased the property over 15 years ago, when house prices were generally much lower, the price achieved today doesn't really matter so long as they can be satisfied they have achieved the best price possible in today's market." I was called barmy for suggesting mandatory sell by dates, to encourage realistic initial pricing. I don't think many people understood the idea. Radical new proposal - price to sell or GTFO
  7. "A mansion is a very large sprawling dwelling house. U.S. real estate brokers define a mansion as a dwelling of over 8,000 square feet (740 m2). A traditional European mansion was defined as a house which contained a ballroom and many bedrooms. Today, however, there is no formal definition beyond being a large and well-appointed house." I could say "Let me Google that for you...", but I hate people who do that.
  8. Wilmott: "If people don't complain this time then they deserve it when it crashes again!". His diagram of the inherent incentive problem built into the industry was beautifully simple, in case anyone didn't realise how hedge funds make their money. He also foresaw the potential for the flash crash which came a few months after this was made. He seems to be genuinely likeable. Also interesting to see the lecturer describing hedge funds as fee maximising businesses (i.e. extreme agency costs) and the look of complete indifference on the students tired faces.
  9. Dinosaurs. No sympathy for people who can't adapt. That drunk seedy guy, Greg Riba, was recently pulled from his burning house and is probably broke.
  10. Not the same Richard Hill. Anyway, I thought the contrast between this guy and the public school chaps in the OP's video was interesting and very revealing. I've taken a look at your thread and made some comments.
  11. Slick presentation, little of applicable value, but some great anecdotes - especially the guy who was short in Oct 87, covered and went long on the Friday before Black Monday, arrived on Monday saw what was happening and immediately reversed position, ending back in profit. Kudos!
  12. The PTJ videos are a must watch - knowing how successful he continued to be (with OPM). It's very interesting to see the intensity with which he played a position - but frankly it's not something to try to emulate. He makes some good points and revealed a cunning, tricky side, which is why he's attempted to pull the videos whenever they show up. Other than a solid technical-analysis approach to the markets, combined with timing events, nothing of value was revealed. His philanthropic values were there from the beginning, which is the only defense/motivation for making such huge sums of money, IMO.
  13. I watched this series last year some time - mildly interesting from a psychology point of view but nothing of trading value was divulged. In fact the trading side was complete BS and quite possibly only a paper account at their brokers. There was never a million dollars at risk, a few K at most. Self serving from the principal and his ex-GS sidekick, what an ego... he's going into space or something according to his blog. One of the contenders - the fat emotional thickie - came on to another forum and was quite dismayed at the reaction he received, his posts quickly disappeared. It hadn't occurred to him that it wasn't real money on the line and that shook him up I think.
  14. Length of lease? FFS, it's not even the whole mews house, just the top half. OK, let's get real... well, I suppose it's got to be worth 10 Knightsbridge broom-cupboards, so I reckon it'll get bids at 1.5M. Still a ways to go then. What did the owner pay for it?
  15. This documentary, 10 years later, was woeful in comparison. As the markets became more complex and interconnected, the observers appeared to switch off their critical thinking: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjDluZdn9mE
  16. Thanks for posting that, I really enjoyed it. Some random comments: Tate Modern - as working power station! Jobbers making their turn (NYSE still has "specialists") Top hatters walking around with radios, popping into the BoE for overnight balances Unit trusts recommended, but acknowledged not to deliver high returns GPO fund the biggest in the market All that soft porn on display in offices 5/8% commissions decimalisation, 1/10 increments instead of 1/32, put jobbers out of business Incredulity at Lazard's 60K fee for a rights issue To think this is only 37 years ago... you could see where it was heading, sort of.
  17. Shelter is the best investment you can make because it is essential and we are nearly all thrown in to the adult world short of it. It has to be supported by demographics, which are fairly predictable. The other essential we are short of is the food and water required to sustain us over our lifetimes (and, arguably, education). Food is a perishable commodity and by nature is supplied just in time. So the only other comparable investment vehicle I can think of is arable land and/or fresh water springs. Everything else is optional and therefore highly speculative. Risk-adjusted returns in all asset classes converge to the same prevailing yield - so your quest of perpetual 10% returns is quite naive.
  18. Yes, Si1 is definitely on to the right approach to land a punch without them knowing. It's a kind of reductio absurdum for the chattering class. My less clever question would be, "Nick Ross recently sold his house for 35 million pounds to a fabulously wealthy family. While this is probably a unique case, can each of the panel tell us honestly if they could afford to buy their house if they had to buy it at today's prices?" The supplementary being of course, "So who on earth do you think can afford to?"
  19. "£800,000Uk Goes On Building A Water Park In Monaco" It's Morocco, not Monaco. But anyway, carry on.
  20. These Knightsbridge broom cupboard conversions were first done in the late 80s, when they went for the eye-watering price of 40K, and prompted the Stephen Fry "compact and bijou, Mostyn" advert for A&L.
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