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JustYield

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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. He's making the same point as I made earlier in the thread, but for different reasons. Halliwide never claimed to give an average price of all houses sold [in a given period]. Apples and oranges, both useful...
  2. Yes, their actuaries do know what they are doing. I'll give them that. But when volumes are low, they have to mix-adjust based on subjective views...
  3. Why don't you put this to him on his blog? He always stops short of logical conclusions, perhaps because he is a shill? He certainly isn't an idiot, but he is very unlikeable. Nice post, btw.
  4. Rightmove is asking prices, Land Registry is actual sales - a world of difference. Garbage in, garbage out - especially as more kite-flyers allow their houses to languish "for sale" but well away from the market for years. The first derivative might be useful though as a leading sentiment indicator.
  5. He's basically saying that the national debt is largely owned by Americans too (the top 1% mainly), so they benefit from the income stream (coupon) as much as others lose (higher taxes to pay the coupon). So in aggregate it's a wash... mmmkay. Meanwhile, in the real world, people have to contend with inflation (devaluing currency), rising taxes and job insecurity. I'd rather live in a country with a healthy surplus and sovereign wealth fund (e.g. Singapore) than one which owes $X trillion to China. In all this, what is often forgotten, is that the USD since WWII has special reserve currency status (gained very deliberately at Bretton Woods), hence vast USD markets have developed outside USA - probably another USA's worth. The USD is the only currency with which you can buy oil (it's not simply an FX issue) - no other country enjoys this hege-money nor can be so relaxed about running up national debts.
  6. Good point. Could be even simpler - more down-sizers coming onto market recently (which I intuitively believe there are) will skew all indices up (asking prices and actual sales), no matter how much they attempt to mix-adjust. If Joe Average thinks his house is worth more because of this, then he is deluded. But I don't believe Halliwide captures large house prices (>£1M) as accurately as the more average houses, whereas Rightmove has all of them - apples and oranges - and so you'd expect to see the gap widen due to this effect (more downsizers trying to cash out at the same time in the cycle).
  7. Before you get all excited about the absolute gap, remember that the Halliwide indices based only on houses requiring a mortgage (from them) and are then mix-adjusted to arrive at a representative average house (according to them; they don't show their workings); whereas Rightmove (presumably) includes all stock on its books with an asking price (note I did not say "for sale"). So unless Rightmove does some mix-adjusting of its own, the gap will widen purely as a function of more expensive houses becoming available, albeit still at unrealistic asking prices. This would explain most of the gap widening, I reckon. It does not necessarily mean that people are being more unrealistic than before; or, at least, I am not convinced you can infer that.
  8. What a pussy. All that conviction and he's on the sidelines with cash, waiting to get Bullish after a 20% pull-back, rather than being massively short. He's a frustrated Bull!
  9. Hey - don't be a twit! The PE firms' alleged behaviour is certainly illegal under competition law in UK, Europe, USA... Comparing their market dominance with a couple of guys (without said market dominance) talking about taking turns offering on a house is laughable hypothetical masturbation. Porca misèria a troll. Who knew.
  10. Why can't any of these supposed financial expert presenters hold a line of thought to its conclusion? It was very disappointing to see everyone cut across each other and steer the conversation away before any thought was concluded. Pathetic really. Max often does himself no favours (if he wants to be included in a mainstream debate) but once he drops the hyperbole he can actually make some people wake up as he has great TV presence.
  11. Indeed “We would much rather work with you guys than against you guys,” Tony James, the president of Blackstone, wrote in an email to KKR co-founder George Roberts, according to the suit. “Together we can be unstoppable but in opposition we can cost each other a lot of money.” Not content with being at the apex of modern day capitalism, these guys have to shift the field to their advantage even more... and the worst part is they don't even consider for a moment it is wrong! Reminds me of the fairly recent Rolling Stone revelations regarding the muni-bonds collusion - where bidders were told (with none too subtle hints) the next highest bid, so they could eliminate any money left on the table.
  12. Really some of you will complain about anything. I thought the programme was OK for its slot on a mainstream channel and will make some people sit up and think. sharp intake of breath at the £2.795M price for a 3BR maisonette in London (secluded or otherwise the price is nuts and the yield way too low)... ... the investor is apparently only seeking a 3.5% gross yield - shows what he thinks of the Euro Builder (Berkeley Homes) states that more supply will reduce prices and relieve the log-jam Boomer downsizer wants second steppers to pay for her flights to NZ, hasn't sold for 2 years and sits in her study stewing Rightmove chap recognises that for many, home ownership will remain out of reach (...my view is that additional laws to protect renters are urgently required and should be a manifesto pledge) The understandably negative attitude of most people to renting supports mad prices - boomerang kids rather squeeze in with in-laws than pay rents which prevent them saving deposits foreign investors are piling into BTL in London especially - a good or bad thing for UK plc? the couple who rented out their negative equity first house acknowledged they are hoping for price rises to save their equity, relied on New Buy(?) initiative Maybe you're all too close to it to see that this programme was actually OK.
  13. Nice review of the situation, worthy of Chatham House.
  14. I haven't read too deeply into it, but I too cannot fathom what Japan is up to. There was talk that this spat distracted from the Chinese leadership succession plans and the Bo Xilai scandal, but I can't see Japan's motivation.
  15. If I knew how to include your quotes I would (why do they get dropped?). Let's savour it again: "One problem is that for the first time in a generation, there are more sellers wanting to trade down than buyers wanting to move up the chain. That is also hampering people who want to downsize." Just meditate on that thought for a while, mull it over. What could it mean for prices?
  16. I'll tell you how close to the crash we are: for the first time in my life, I attended a BTL investment seminar last night here in Singapore. I haven't turned bull... yet.
  17. Interesting speech, thanks. Merve's analysis of the counter-factual ("if we had raised rates and imposed tighter leverage ratios on banks") and his name checks of Minksy and Taleb - all show he is at least searching for a better understanding and is open to new models. His call to young economists to overthrow the discredited macro models is actually surprisingly strong.
  18. It's self-consistent. No point allocating funds for lending (or whatever it's called) for the banks to simply use it to fill in legacy pot-holes rather than build new roads, as it were. A bank de-leveraging spiral (to meet rigid ratios regardless of the bigger picture) would be catastrophic.
  19. Don't mock, it's close to Serene Centre and Coronation Plaza!! The thing with these large bungalow plots is you never see anyone out enjoying their garden and pools are rarely used.
  20. It was actually a good review, full of praise. Not that you'd know it from the pedants here. e.g. "What he does know, however, is how to elucidate apparently impenetrable issues, and he guides us intelligently and entertainingly through three key problems: the eurozone, banks and the UK." Pesto is odd. Let's bully the odd person. That fits with HPC's ethos. :angry:
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