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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. But is the market clearing at this same price? Or is stock building up on EA's books?
  2. I think Philosphy attempts to explain the Why - why things are. Physics (and Mathematics) the What - what things exist (and why they are the way they are). Engineering the How - how we do something with all this material knowledge. Economics the Who and When - who does what to whom, and when. So Economics is hard because it has two things to deal with, which gives rise to reflexivity.
  3. This is the same Rob Lowe who jokes about killing a hobo in Californication (@3'15"): http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=qgXJ_FLA0F0 (Not that I really care, it's a very funny scene, but stop it already with the faux outrage.)
  4. My goodness, you are on edge if that interview wound you up! Evan played the devil's advocate role on IO mortgages (all legitimate points he made) and in so doing drew out some strong messages from Wheatley: house prices are unaffordable in the SE especially [and this was driven by lax lending in the past] relying on HPI to pay off IO loans is irresponsible (to which Evan conceded, 'OK - [we've heard both sides now]') we're attempting to protect borrowers and lenders Evan's comment in the preamble comparing between the UK and US market failures could be interpreted to be about irresponsible lending ("too easy to get a mortgage, no checks etc"), not price falls. A market failure to me is one that leads to dry-up - low to no volume of houses being sold. Was the US worse than the UK in this regard? (I'm not convinced - I don't think UK volumes have bottomed out yet.)
  5. To find the multiplier you have to look at similar businesses and what multiples they sold for. Yes this is circular. Prevailing interest rates very much affect valuations (through the multiplier)! If you have a profitable business, why do you want to sell it? Why not install salaried management and keep ownership (so you can extricate yourself from the day to day hassle)? Read some Felix Dennis before you sell.
  6. Friday's S&P500 daily bar was significant confirmation (IMO) of the second leg down of the depression. It will be disguised as much as possible until the election is out of the way.
  7. I've been following this site for nearly 8 years and I'm almost certain nobody has ever suggested that houses should be free! That would screw with the carrot and stick of modern life somewhat...
  8. Sure, but it might make more sense to have the series start at 100 in 1974 then? (I'm not criticising, but I spent a few minutes pondering if 100 was a resistance level for some reason I couldn't quite understand... see London.) The important point is that the charts are in real, constant money of some kind, the tide-rising effect of general inflation is stripped out. Is RPI a good proxy for wage inflation generally? Hasn't it decoupled the last 10 years or so?
  9. That sounds like a lot of work. Has someone done it already in a handy 1-pager? I thought this was the essence of MMT - Governments are slow to realise the power they have [to dictate to the markets] to lead us to a more meaningful existence for all. Maybe not.
  10. 1983 = 100 - but most of the charts start at 30 - is that 2012 money after deflating by RPI (or what?)
  11. Good post. Great, relatively speaking. The UK has gone ex-growth (in the parlance): what does this mean for its stakeholders (and will they notice before it's too late)?
  12. I asked you to link it in the thread only if it was relevant. Now you say it isn't.
  13. No, I asked for your rebuttal of the debunker. I'm listening.
  14. It was a programme on tax affairs, wasn't it? Do not pass go if you do not have a business that makes a profit - ever! I thought they were a bit brusque too, but they did explain why, and other callers probably did have more pressing tax questions.
  15. That didn't take long: Thrive debunked Before I waste any more time on a conspira-loon movie featuring David Icke, perhaps you could first debunk the debunker? State where he's got it all wrong...
  16. I don't see signatures, they are by nature repetitive and annoying. If it is a relevant, link it here. If you don't believe housing will ever again be affordable to the common man then I respectfully disagree. I think on reflection the OP is spot on and the powers that be have done a good job (as judged within their frame of reference).
  17. This is the OP's definition of a soft landing: "Over the next 20 years or so the soft landing will deliver a lower standard of living, in material terms, but without the big social unrest that would follow a sharp drop, in 20 years someone working as a shop assistant will not be able to afford a car or foreign holidays but buying or renting of a flat would be possible." That kind of soft landing - where most people are worse off materially than today, but can afford to pay the rent or even buy their own place. OK, I might agree. How is that any different to what most here envision? Carry on talking across each other.
  18. One way to land softly is in snow on a steep mountain side.
  19. Not necessarily - they are trained at BTL School to sit through and subsidise periods of negative cash flow because prices double every 10 years. Always have, always will. Seriously, anything that relates rents to real valuations is all good in my book.
  20. Yes, but interesting. There was a big old house we used to walk past in Blackheath in the early 90s with heavy permanently closed black curtains that rumour had was Saddam's. I hear prices are moving up fast in Gaza.
  21. No, because as I've learned today, Rightmove apparently does not adjust initial asking prices down when calculating its index, so it misses this very important change. Unbelievable really.
  22. Does Rightmove really stick with the initial asking price? That's disingenuous... and explains everything. I note you can ask for Rightmove's workings if you work for the press, has anyone got their methodology to hand?
  23. In a closed system, the productive will ultimately carry on regardless of what the bondholders say they are owed. You want to eat? Cancel my debt...
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