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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. Food for thought, particularly Lord Adair Turner's presentation (first up) and then Prof. Charles Goodhart's (third up). Probably deserves a thread of its own, unless already posted.
  2. I was going to quote his post too, and use those 2 lines. The availability of easy credit (debt) is now embedded in asset prices. This is unfortunate, but there we are. I've often tried to make people aware of the distinction between the affordability of an asset and its value. Debt has driven up prices to fill the available affordability, in a pro-cyclical, positive feedback loop. Some clear systems thinking is required - everything affects everything.
  3. HPC thread from 2008 another one and yet another one from the same OP! groan Parry 2007 vintage uh huh muttley has his turn We need more cow bell!
  4. I'd always assumed Jerry and Margo's kids (if any) had flown the coop, as I thought they were about 10 years older - it never occurred to me to ask how Tom and Barbara ended up living next to them, or notice the coincidence of working at the same firm. (I was about 7.)
  5. Isn't that more Kiwi than Aussie? I'm not an expert.
  6. Yes. Pay ratchets up, number of people sharing the pie is the variable. Always has been that way. I once asked why we can't use the good years to smooth out the bad... I was out (on a good year). Survivorship bias means these organisations concentrate psychopathic behaviour. It's about time wider society said "Wait a minute, WTF do you guys think you are doing?!" (See Simon Jenkins' article this week.)
  7. I agree it is, on the face of it, a bit of a silly index (based on simple addition of 30 share prices and not weighted at all by something sensible, like market cap) but there have only been a dozen or so changes in its composition since 1982. It is still important.
  8. Yes, I thought the top 1% would own more than 50% (by Pareto's 80:20 rule, cubed) so still some way to go.
  9. "The market for land is essentially rigged in favour of landowners, who pay no tax on their land holdings and hence pay no penalty for sitting on it, waiting for the artificially-created scarcity to push prices up further. With no revenue from land taxes, local authorities are unable to capture any increase in the value of land that takes place when planning permission is granted. As a result, they have little incentive to open up land for development. " I thought this was an interesting point. I wonder why land escapes taxation when everything else under the sun is taxed to the hilt.
  10. Really? Palm heel strike, hammer fist and karate chop are going to work where a punch won't? They are punches. Consterdine favours the devastating full face slap with double hip, and his mate Thompson is handy with the upper cut to the jaw bone, also with explosive double hip initiation and a scream. Neither recommend standing there with your guard up because "you know it is on".
  11. Do they include transaction costs in assessing the loss: you know those niggly, small items like stamp duty and the 1-2% to the estate agent?
  12. Ha! I was waiting for that punch line. Seattle (and surrounding areas) looks quite good too - what are the pros and cons of Seattle vs Vancouver?
  13. I didn't have mumsnet down as pro HPI. I know they sometimes characterise posters here as sad losers in bed sits, which makes me laugh, but other than that I hadn't really noticed them. Sentiment's a funny thing, when it turns it's as if everyone always knew.
  14. Um, that's not good. Is he over bearing generally?
  15. House once affordable at 19 now seven figures? I can think of seven letters, 3 of which are 'f'.
  16. I think the problem is that renters are not on an equal footing as owner occupiers. I think the system should be changed so that one can remain indifferent to renting or owning - it should be neutral. It isn't of course. The acid test: does your wife or girlfriend want to have kids while you are renting? And if not, why not? This inherent instability in the rental market is not good for renters or professional landlords.
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