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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. I was saying exactly the same discussing this with my wife over dinner. It's not just the demographics... You don't have to foresee a complete collapse to see a trading opportunity.
  2. Actually Nationalist's description of what happens is close enough to the truth. My eyes normally glaze over when I see another "So let's say Bank A has GBP1000 in deposits..." but in this case I followed him to the end nodding in agreement. It's a bit naughty (disingenuous) to say the banks don't need to have [access to] the cash... but technically it's absolutely correct! Banks only need to keep cash on hand to meet demand for withdrawals (which is why runs can occur). New loans are made first and deposits follow. The new loan is indeed tapped into the borrower's account without too much concern from the lending officer about how much cash the bank has on hand at that instant. It's a great business model.
  3. All I got from Billy in that link is that Japan can print and so will not go bust. Any comment from you (the "Japan is just fine" crowd) on Kyle Bass' well stated and publicised position on Japan?
  4. [ ]'s. Workshy layabouts. Can't trust 'em. Or if feeling a bit more whimsical: I went to [ ] once. It was nice. Good food. (When forums start meta-analysing themselves it might be time to move on! )
  5. Watch from 14 minutes about Japan: Interviewer: but...surely... but... but... Kyle: "<sigh> OK, so let's analyse everything you've just said."
  6. Good series of posts leicestersq. The Austrian's tell us how the world should be (or could be in an ideal world after a reset) but aren't very convincing in explaining what we actually see. Do Govts who monetise debt have to promise to reverse the process at some stage, or do they just ratchet up each time with impunity (and I suppose cross off trailing zeroes from the currency periodically)?
  7. Still trying to parse the opening line: "Psychonauts house Double Fine's hugely successful Kickstarter crowdfunding campaign raised eyebrows this week when the studio hit its $400,000 goal in just a few hours. " Nope. Editor asleep on the job. Think I get that Double Fine, an offshoot of Psychonaut (whoever they may be), is raising money through KS by the crowdfunding method, but not sure. Is this professional writing?
  8. It's a bear market you know. (Although a lot of bears will be scratching their heads right now!)
  9. Well that sure sounds like a $100bn company. Where do I sign?
  10. I was with you right up to the point where you mentioned the efficient market hypothesis. (Joking aside, good post, food for thought and all that. Clearly bubbles defy EMH models.)
  11. As I understand it, and I could be wrong (I often am) QE allows banks to buy some time in the hope that their underlying asset values recover. In other words QE is papering over cracks, which hopefully are nothing more than the natural stress you'd expect over a cycle but in the worst case could be due to structural (terminal) subsidence. QE is "let's not think too hard about it and hope we muddle through". QE relies on growth (inflation?) to come to the rescue and if it doesn't, why let's try some more QE until it does. That's about it. (And by the way there are no stupid questions about QE.)
  12. Huge capital costs, while prices tend to fall to marginal cost of production (or below) due to overcapacity in the industry and short lifecycles. That and substitution from new products as you point out. I often wonder why we need 3000 different types of DVD player or digital camera, sometimes a command economy might make sense!? That said, I've bought several Panasonic products in the last 18 months and am very happy with them.
  13. Yes, the letter smacks of hubris, revisionism and accute cognitive dissonance in the founder's brain. For example, one of the primary aims of the IPO is to deliver returns promised to the initial investors (they are presumably seeking an exit) but it will also deliver the same type of return to the new investors. OK, if you say so Mark. They can only get to the next stage with new money... but the next stage is the biggest risk. Then there's the whole we're too cool for school mentality (break stuff, don't worry about mistakes, ship shit fast, hack around until something works...); we're into making great services not money; we were always about social change in the world.... purleese Mark, spare us - there was no grand vision like this. Accept it for what it is: first mover advantage. And with fickle consumers and low barriers to entry, that's all they've got. (Admittedly they are currently first in a winner takes all market, for how long?) I didn't realise they were banned in China completely. Jeez.
  14. Coincidentally the possible Xstrata/Glencore merger results in a ~$100bn company. Real world class assets, cash flow and commodities the world needs vs. consumers who like to share embarrassing photos with their 527 friends. Go figure.
  15. Ahh, your post above was a copy/paste of an original, thoughtful piece by Karl Denninger.
  16. Good post Mr Zwang, in contrast to my pithier "Is there a business plan beyond advertise loads of shit to targeted groups, hope they don't get annoyed and, er, that's it really?" In addition to users leaving in droves, governments might also notice its role in fomenting dissent, and do something about it. Political risk, business risk - now they just need to add financial risk and its a full-house.
  17. If this IPO has a "Like" button, I wouldn't click it. Is there a business plan beyond advertise loads of shit to targeted groups, hope they don't get annoyed and, er, that's it really?
  18. This thread seems like a lot of fun but I've got no idea what's going on. Is a number coming out soon?
  19. Gotta love globalisation: at the top it causes a "War for Talent!" while for everyone else it causes "competition for work". It's the shareholders - your pension funds - who let them get away with it.
  20. Did he not mention the special terms of the deal in his ad on Craiglist? Run away. Don't walk.
  21. Nice analysis. I think Nokia (with MS) could well stage a comeback, they still have brand value and a backlash against iPhone/Apple is overdue. I hope they retain bar form-factors with numeric pads, I don't trust slates with touchscreens to be reliable in tough conditions.
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