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JustYield

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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. This post was recently brought to my attention. Very good, Sir. Very good indeed.
  2. What? You think it will hold above 30 for 25 more days? I don't. Brokers now have locate on lendable shares (not in large volumes and callable at short notice, blah blah). It's therefore shortable as of today (Wed 23 May), it remains to be seen if it is significant volume. Plenty more people want to short it than can or will. Chuckle. Henceforth known as the 650 scam.
  3. I think common consensus on here is it is going down big time. But how to pick the top / bottom points? Would you have taken out a short at $45 on opening day? I'm not brave enough to call things like this, but long term it is only going one way. Back to a more normal p/e. Showing signs it will stay safely above 30 today (increasing volume as price increases). Tomorrow is a different matter as the hedge funds get to work on it from the short side.
  4. I foresee the sponsored ads on FB will soon feature lawyers pitching users for the "invasion of privacy law suit / class action" gig. Nice bit of service sector leverage right there. The Zuck will just walk. Too much stress.
  5. Cramer (CNBC) just said something of value for once: "[Lawyers advice:] do not lie; but do not tell the truth! That's corporate America." Priceless.
  6. This does not look good: http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-bankers-earnings-forecasts-2012-5 "And now comes some news about the Facebook IPO that buyers deserve to be outraged about. Reuters Alistair Barr is reporting that Facebook's lead underwriters, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs, all cut their earnings forecasts for the company in the middle of the IPO roadshow. This by itself is highly unusual (I've never seen it during 20 years in and around the tech IPO business). But, just as important, news of the estimate cut was passed on only to a handful of big investor clients, not everyone else who was considering an investment in Facebook. This is a huge problem, for one big reason: Selective dissemination. "
  7. World Service today (Radio 4 like interview) with some London trader from some 3rd tier brokerage outfit saying FB is a long term hold and the glitches over the float are nothing to be worried about, 900m user base, half of which are active daily, soon to be a billion... various ways to monetise this base (none outlined in the prospectus specifically AFAIK). Then at the end the interviewer points out to the listener that he asked this trader/salesman if he or his brokerage owned any FB - turns out he didn't! I mean, WTF. Seriously, WTF is going on here?! I guess my interest really is in eventually finding out how Morgan Stanley did out of the business. I wonder if they had a plan B to short all along.
  8. I honestly think he doesn't give a ****** about the share price. He said as much in the prospectus.
  9. Just broken 33 in pre-market. (34 appeared to be yesterday's support.)
  10. "NASDAQ on line 1 for you, they say they've managed to confirm your 2 million shares at 41." "Thank you Carol. Hold all calls."
  11. They will only prop it to the extent that they (and the syndicate) are still net long FB. They still have probably half of the green shoe (30 m shares, say) which they are short, and can use this to buy back below 38 without financial damage. Once that is gone, however, they would have to buy in the open market to prop it up, which would be their tactical choice. They won't of course. They either get it into the mid 40s by 10 am or it's game over, IMHO.
  12. According to the CNBC girl MS is not allowed to stabilise pre-market (Kernan was clueless as usual - she had to explain to him it would be short covering by MS to bring price back, not "new" buying at 38, but in any case not until 9:30 EST). But still, it's not good PR is it [to let it drift down like this on thin volume]?
  13. Broken below 38 in pre-market.
  14. It's just the notes and coins in circulation. If you dig deep enough, behind all property (assets) there was a theft at some point. The question is how best to proceed from where we are, not how unfair is history! (It is a good video overall, minor quibbles aside; however it was too long and didn't need the unsettling soundtrack underlay.)
  15. Good article here on the greenshoe mechanism: facebook-ipo-goes-nowhere-in-exciting-fashion "...my best guess would be that the underwriters have eaten through half or so of the 63mm share Facebook greenshoe in stabilizing the deal at just about $38. So I seem to have lost my imaginary bet that the greenshoe would be exercised in full. The greenshoe and stabilization are weirdly misunderstood; people cannot get over the idea that it is a prop position for the underwriters, meaning that if the stock reached $50 the underwriters would make a kajillion dollars on their 63mm share greenshoe option, while if instead it breaks through $38 in the wrong direction the underwriters would be long a lot of stock at $38. Nah. Morgan Stanley et al. sold 484mm shares for $38.00 last night, but only bought 421mm from Facebook. That left them with a 63mm short that they were hoping to cover at $37.582 (the price of the IPO and greenshoe to them) but that it sure looks like they’ve mostly covered at $38.00 – $38.01 today." So maybe not such a catastrophic over-hang out there after all? Thoughts? Am I on everyone's ignore list?
  16. Ah, that answers my question above (Who's holding the baby?): "Morgan Stanley, Facebook’s lead financial adviser, ended the day with 162m shares, worth $6.16bn. Other banks including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs also bought shares, ending the day with $3.2bn and $2.4bn holdings respectively." IPOs are usually priced to "pop" for a reason: to get them away. One caveat in all this investment banking schadenfreude-fest: the greenshoe may have allowed them to buy back shares that will be effectively cancelled, as in "we know we said we'd give you 38 (or 37.5, whatever) for the over-allotment, well here's the thing: they didn't pop, so we'll say they were never issued, OK?". They're exposure is therefore reduced. (Still, they were hoping to profit from the green shoe, not have it rammed back at them.)
  17. Fascinating isn't it? I don't think I'd be able to concentrate on the day job with billions in net worth - he does seem remarkably level headed, so far. I do think we'll see some bizarre behaviour from the senior FB directors though in the coming months and years. Zucker's words have always been "investor be wary", saying it's all about the technology and not the returns and that the IPO was primarily a necessary pay back for the first round investors, rather than what he desired and that he wasn't sure how the money would be used yet. But in general his interests are aligned to those of his shareholders, except for the unavoidable fact of his huge F.U. fund (key-man insurance anyone?) and his disregard for returns. I guess he will invest/spend the money on defensive acquisitions (1 more was announced today) and developing mobile. So yes, there is very real potential to mis-allocate capital to his cronies.
  18. Man, that's an ugly debut. Who's left holding the baby now? That they went ahead in this market means they think/know worse is to come, or it was simply group-think and hubris. I think we can say that the "IPO window" is now closed.
  19. It won't go below 38 today. If you can borrow the shares from an institution, you can short them - so it is both allowed and possible but tricky (scarcity). (Obviously the underwriters are barred from lending their stock out for shorting purposed as it would be a conflict of interest.)
  20. 38 has to be broken first. It's grinding up and will probably close today with a face-saving 10% pop. But we all saw the underwriters have to step in not 15 minutes after the float. I guess 38 will be re-tested next week.
  21. "Hey, you're the global co-ordinator, you buy this PoS, we're out!!" Who are the underwriters by the way?
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