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JustYield

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Everything posted by JustYield

  1. At least it acknowledges that it is only momentum that let HPs continue this far. The reverse thrusters are full-on, will anyone be able to turn them off?
  2. Vodafone is a world leader. Which made me think about the growth trends in the UK (some are already well underway): Mobile phones voice / SMS / 3g. Premium rate chat lines and porn. Fitness clubs, running machines. Prostitution and lap dancing clubs ("I make £120K in tips - better than working at a check-out"). Ready made meals. Dating agencies. Lifestyle management / concierge services for people who are working all hours. Nanny services. Gambling. Insurance. Compensation (no win no fee ambulance chasing). Debt consolidation. Bankruptcy advisory. Bigger government (because we can't be trusted to look after ourselves). More cameras and street furniture. More rules and people to enforce them. Drugs: anti-depression, ADD, caffeine, uppers, downers. Frustration, anger and adrenaline - growth in extreme sports. Identity cards. ID theft. Road pricing. Public transport over-spend. Satellite monitoring of cars speed and location. Then people. Where did all that come from? A bit of a garbled stream of consciousness, too cynical?
  3. Pharma: I think we are a net importer of the cash drugs that make the real money. New colonialism: selling £ to fund overpriced shacks in central Europe is not a long term option and cannot in any way be compared to taking over a country to exploit its gold and diamond wealth before the locals learnt how to read and write.
  4. Is that because City traders add a lot of value to mankind while civil servants muddle through in a misguided attempt to make life more pleasant and equitable in this country? BTW, any City trader who doesn't make £75K + bonus should seriously consider if it is worth it, given the job satisfaction and security.
  5. Banks and building societies generated record cash last year - guess why I too have grave reservations about the future of UK plc. One scenario is that world-class financial services in London will create an island of extreme wealth in a country which otherwise is slipping ever backwards in terms of living standards relative to the economic newcomers. It will be a shock to many of us when the mass middle classes from India decide they'd like to buy a pied-a-terre in Europe... The WWII generation (and before them the Victorians) were the last Great Britons: we've all been coasting on an eroding infrastructure since then, passing bits of paper around and pretending we are getting richer. A few devaluations along the way helped us scrape by. Nice post about insurance - can we start a whole new web-area to discuss that particular con? As I said earlier today, I will soon be looking for a cheaper bar in which to sup my preferred tipple, this country is about to implode (IMHO ).
  6. Tomorrow's edition of The Economist has an article which argues that central banks should put more weight on asset price inflation (property in particular) when setting interest rates even if they stick to a narrower definition of inflation in their index. The following snippet relates to America: Ian Morris, an economist at HSBC, has devised a broader index, which includes house prices, giving them a weight of 30%, the same now attributed to the notional “rent†paid by homeowners in the core CPI. In the year to the third quarter, inflation as measured by this broad index was 4.9%, more than twice the rise in the core CPI. Assuming that house-price inflation has continued at the same pace, The Economist calculates that broad inflation is now 5.5%, the highest since 1982 (see chart). Moreover, during the past three decades the gap between the two measures of inflation has never been so wide for so long. If inflation in America is really higher than the official index suggests, then interest rates should also be higher. Similar measures would show inflation well above the standard figures in many other countries too. The main exceptions are Japan and Germany, where house prices have been falling.
  7. Rents in Docklands rising? I don't dispute the figures in your sample, but I find that very hard to believe - there is the glut of all gluts of rental property available in Docklands now. And your small sample is similar to other's anecdotal evidence which you criticise. I think you can pick up the state of the market in your area from seeing the activity of EAs, or lack thereof, with your own eyes.
  8. If you asked 3 economists you'd get at least 4 different theories. It's a blunt instrument that rarely prevents boom/bust cycles. You get well paid for having an opinion on IR though.
  9. I too respect and admire The Monkey, for he is a wise man. I am glad he is by our side to guide us through these disturbing and confusing times. Greed will indeed turn to fear very soon. It just needs a nudge. Today I have been mainly spreading fear and panic on other boards as best I can. Ask yourself this: what have you done to help spread the fear today?
  10. Recently hasn't the stock answer been "we'll give them a leg-up". Recycling money from the top back into the base of the pyramid - it's an unsustainable anti-gravity levitation trick.
  11. Systemic moral hazard. It's the new welfare. Taxes will only go up. Guess who will shoulder the burden? I'm seriously considering leaving for another bar where the drinks are a bit cheaper.
  12. I'm very heartened to hear that the "right to buy" guy from Highbury showed no common sense on his completely un-earned windfall (social housing's loss) and immediately ploughed it back into another over-priced property. They say wealth built in one generation is lost by the third, in this guy's case he's done it all in one go. We looked at a right to buy property on Tony Blair's old street in Islington about 6 years ago. The guy was trying to get us to gazump his buyer and all we remember of the shifty vendor was the glazed look of $$$ signs in his eyes. Talk about greed - we could smell it! Think you have been very sensible, making tough (or not so tough!) decisions and doing the best for your family.
  13. I don't think you are comparing apples with apples. Agree you will earn ~£130 interest (actually more like £120 when you consider average monthly balances) but this is on an average balance of ~£1537 in the year, bringing the rate back up towards, surprise, surprise, 8% p.a. Still, not much use to us STRs when egg pays 5.5% for 6 months on balances up to £1M (IIRC).
  14. Are STRs just being plain greedy? They are certainly acting in their self-interest in a free market. Plain greedy? No, no more than anyone else in the market: for every seller there is a willing buyer, presumably someone who is also acting in his own self-interest. The STR is taking a punt that he will benefit from the greed and stupidity of others, believing he is exploiting a market anomaly and that he has got the timing right. STR's behaviour actually has altruistic consequences - it sends timely price signals back into the market, just as arbitrageurs exploit price anomalies in more liquid markets, so helping to deflate bubbles. The bubble was formed by greed in the first place. Knowing when to sell is just as important as knowing when to buy.
  15. Thanks for the link. 3 observations: 1) non-mortgage or cash purchases are completely ignored in the analysis (by definition, being based on mortgage approvals); 2) the price point is taken at mortgage approval post-survey, pre-completion: it therefore does not take into account any gazundering pre-completion (I suppose the same property could show up twice at two different prices) 3) they top and tail the sample which may be statistically valid but is a bit arbitrary and prone to fudging; they exclude sale prices over £1M (much of central London is ignored then) and they claim their sample size is "large enough" without any justification. (They must get some very badly behaved data some months when the market is quiet.) It would be a brave analyst who changed the gradient of the HP trend-line in times of low sales volumes. Still, not sure what alternative method they could use. Also worth remembering that this "typical house" they model does not exist, anywhere. JY
  16. Apologies if this has been discussed to death before, it's something that has bothered me all along: all the house price statistics are based on the average selling price of all the properties sold in the period, no? How do the statisticians normalise for periods when higher priced properties make up a larger proportion of the sample than "normal". How can you then compare one period to the previous period? It's all a nonsense, isn't it? Presumably there is some 95% confidence level thing going on which they neglect to point out when stating "property prices have increased by x%". See: FT discussion forum http://forums.ft.com/2/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=6...01561#650101561 Price statistrics inflated by slump in sales of lower-priced property by Alex Grey  (I decided not to paste his entire post) He seems to think that the recently announced property price increases are due to the mix being skewed to higher than average priced properties. Makes sense to me. JY
  17. Fair point, VP. I didn't put it very well, but what I'm looking for is a debate about the new facts/data/trends as they emerge and in that debate for people to declare their vested interest, if they have one rather than trying to convince those on the other side of the market that they are somehow "wrong". I agree that to debate the meaning of new information you do not have to have a vested interest just an analytical and inquisitive mind. I am happy to declare my interest as a STR and will post from this view-point, hopefully consistently.
  18. There often isn't a lot left to contribute once the 2 extreme views and then a reasoned, mature balanced argument have been put. I lurked for about 12 hours before I could no longer resist entering the fray. I do think that comments should be restricted to those who have demonstrably put their money where their mouth is and have taken a position, whether long or short. There is a danger on this forum that we are preaching to the converted (no doubt this has been raised before). I think it was Monkey who made the point that for sentiment to change as fast as STR/FTBs want then the general populace needs to be aware of the arguments/views being put forward on this very useful site. Well done whoever set it up, if it didn't exist someone would have to invent it.
  19. What's wrong with STR? It's the only way to play the market. The timing right now is splendid for recent STRs. Speculation? The property price risks are hardly on the upside now are they? It's a perfectly sensible, proactive strategy to protect one's equity. Market timing is everything - however, if everybody decided to do it at the same time...now that would be interesting!
  20. Yes - if she doesn't have the sense to keep quiet about her negative equity experience... What an own goal. Is this a sign that the TV schedules will soon be released from the endless property speculation format? (First post here, be gentle.)
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