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LetsGetReadyToTumble

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  1. Many thanks. I would have therefore thought that gross lending would give an indication to the buoyancy of the market. The figures for Feb/Mar are very similar, and although approvals increased, the average price paid must be lower. IE, people are buying cheaper houses. OR, does it indicate prices are dropping?
  2. Thanks. On closer inspection it does say 'Net lending secured on dwellings', but what is net lending? They give the total mortgage approvals number, but how can we tell what the total amount lent is. That is, how much do the lenders make available for these mortgages?
  3. Does anyone know how to find the Mortgage lending amount on the BofE website. According to United Kingdom Mortgage Lending (investing.com) although approvals were up, lending was at 0.02B, ie naff-all and they claim this figure is from the BofE. I want to find it on the bank's site just to check this value is correct. If it is correct, it equates to something like £350 each mortgage which must be a nonsense. Thanks for any help.
  4. Rates up to 7.22%, forecast 7.00%, last month 7.02%. Thing is, what is this? I thought rates were individual and were dependant on the mortgage source. How are these BofE rates used? I assume these higher rates are more ammo to kill house prices. Mortgage Rate (GBP) (investing.com)
  5. Statistically I see little difference between H, NW and UK HPI, and usually they are very similar. Is is just odd that NW and UK HPI are very similar. I sense a vested interest attitude with Halifax. For example, they highlight the increase in mortgage approvals but say nothing about the reduction in lending, a staggering 66% less (200bn down to 700mn).
  6. LR/ONS, being the true stats, agree much more with Nationwide, especially in price direction, suggesting there is something wrong with the Halifax figures.
  7. The Halifax come across as a vested interest group. For example, they mention the increase in mortgage applications (how many will fall into the wayside) but not the reduction in lending from £200bn to £700mn, a staggering reduction of 66%. I would have thought that was the 'main factor to consider. The approvals increased from 39k to 42.5k. I know the 39k was seasonally adjusted from 29k. What was the real increased number and why is the adjusted figure wildly larger?
  8. I'd be really pissed-off if I bought a brick box last year, and now houses on the same estate are offering substantial offers.
  9. Just steer them to the latest RICS report. That should piss on their parade. What I thought was relevant was : 'Net mortgage lending to individuals decreased from £3.1bn to £2.5bn in January.' That is a significant reduction. So does this mean the idiots are still buying to some degree but cheaper houses?
  10. No mention these are 60% LTV, with fees and after the fixed period comes rates approaching 7%, so the lender will stress test the borrower and say 'the computer says no'. Inflation is out of control and bank rates will be going up well above 5%.
  11. The system only works at 5-5.5% without QE. It's got to be 0.5% this time at least to keep the momentum going to get to around 5%. Anyway, I can't see inflation being controlled by 5%, it's just too low. In the 1990s we had 12% bank rate to control 9% inflation which reduced over 3 years to 2.5% and the bank rates followed down to 5%. Or are the conditions now completely different?
  12. The historical value for a stable system, and to make pension schemes viable is 5% to 5.5%. At 3.5% the pension schemes are vulnerable, and only a few months ago the BofE printed 40bn to stop the banks going under. I believe the same problems are happening today, so anything under 5% needs QE for support and we all know what then happens to inflation.
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