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House Price Crash Forum

the don

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Everything posted by the don

  1. after the problems over the last week, i commend the mods for taking on board the suggestion of a welcome for new members. time will tell if it is worthwhile or needs refining. IMO the forum needs to get as many people as possible to read the posts and hopefully many will agree with the views of most bears that a housing correction is underway. whatever their position, we need new contributors as the possible information sources and viewpoints are not yet exhausted.
  2. he may be pushed out like charles kennedy also will he call an early election? could go to the country after 3 years
  3. simplistic but generally about right. a market this size is a very complex and not translucent.. for me the initial prompts were: -too loose a monetary policy -a mood change in the transition from tories to labour in 1997 ( things can only get better) once the bandwagon started it just kept going i was convinced in 1992-1994 during the last correction that people would never again repeat the mistakes of the 1980s' ( public and government) how wrong i was. also, the last few years have ben ones where there has been no effctive opposition to the labour government. in this vacuum they have been free to pursue any policies without any accountability however, payback time is here and it will get more messy before we settle down again
  4. i reckon the average plot has cost them about £50k. obviously varies across the country and the density of development, planning gain etc. a 3 bed detached estate house will cost abut £80,000 to build (materials and labour) there are overheads( marketing costs, inhouse architects, etc) , but i doubt whether these add more than about £20k to the costs if they worked on a 15% profit that would give a sales price of about £180k. in most places you cant buy a new 2BR flat for that
  5. i dont think there can be any doubt in this. there is little prospect of further sustained price increases and volumes are down 30% + on 2003/04. the only way they can earn enough to kepe their jobs is volume increases. they know that once the price sentiment is negative it will be a downward slide in both prices and volumes as people dont want to buy in a falling market. i think the reality is that we will see interest rate increases in 2006 and 2007 . oh and a hpc as well
  6. this is quite sensible i hope that ths furore cause by the intial attempt at troll control will now abate and posters will get back to .. well posting.
  7. lovely lolly i dont know if you were expecting me to apologise. my post was meant to be tongue in cheek to soemeone who claimed to have spotted a troll. if i have offended you, i apologise unreservedly this website needs genuine new blood and we need to obtain wide ranging experiences and view points. the don
  8. either this is genuine and lovely lolly has unfairly been labelled a troll or.. it is a troll. however, if this is a troll post then the standard of trolling on this website has improved. we should be pleased if we are attracting a better class of troll.
  9. karen 1000 on what dp you base that sweeping statement depending on how you define "loser" i am sure there are some losers. equally i reckon there are probably a lot of successful individuals. i cant gauge as i have no means to verify the facts. all i do know is that on average the forum content is intelligent, witty and perceptive. we seem to have a good cross section of posters from most walks of life. are you a loser?
  10. i thought it was only me that nearly had an org4sm whilst looking at the graphs!! it is clear that even if house prices dont drop ( highly improbable) then with mewing dropping and housing transactions down c 40% on 2003, there will be a lot less money going round. this will in itself cause a slowdown and almost certainly accelerate the correction.
  11. i agree with all of the above what i will say as a bear is that the bears see the near term being much tougher than the recent past. this is because we have had a good run on the back of a debt expansion. the bears believe that re-adjusting to normal levels of debt will slow the economy and cause a general downtrrn/ recesssion.. wthin that context you are right to say that we are in control of our destiny. we should be positive , but base it on realistic assesments of the wider picture.
  12. this is the best data i have seen in ages it is based on hard facts not exponentially smoothed data from the halifax/ nationwide/rightmove if confidence is so high, if the economy is so strong if employmnent is at record levels if interest rates are so low,...... why has the public stopped mewing in a virtual identical manner to the last housing crash/ correction? i dont recall 15% interest rates in the last few years, which were portrayed as the harbinger of the last crash? is it because peoplel realise tehy have a huge debt burden and deep down they know that there is no such thing as a free lunch and are puling back.? or is it that the lenders are also reducing mew by subtle means etc? either way, what will it be like when the recession arrives( end 2006 in my view)
  13. I am not convinced that the majority of the population are aware of the damage being done to the economy. many people will have owned houses say< 2001 and unless their job prospects diminish or they have to move because of divorce, they will feel pretty ok. they will believe their property has gained in vaue and they will still be earning. the ones with a different perspective are in a number of camps; FTBers who cant afford even a dump without huge amounts of debt people who lose their job . this has been masked through public sector job creation and other labour wheezes but unemployment is beginning to rise with easten european immigrants taking a lot of lower paid but vital jobs existing home owners who want to buy a better property but wont willingly swallow the debt better informed people who look beyond the spin and media garbage and realise the econmoic growth is based on debt , whch cannot go on for ever clearly there are more people in the first group because labour got re-elected in 2005. it is hard to be clear whether cameron might have made a difference last may( unlikely in my view) by the time of the next election the pain will be everywhere. labour will blame someone else(probably the oil companies) for the recession. the public will wake up and hopefully the opposition will ask the awkward questions that the public needs answering.
  14. i dont know enough about this woman. in general i would agree that people who made a fortune through lucky timing and then lost it through not getting out quick enough have little to teach us. however, i would not automatically class all bankrupts as failures and therefore ignore their counsel. many good peoeple have tried and failed at business either throgh genuinely unforseen circumstances or because hey had not got the right business plan etc. i like the saying: he who has made no mistakes has made nothing.
  15. are you serious? coal is a very friable material and will rapidly be ground to dust . interesting to see your neighbours views during dry periods when the balck stuff blows all over their claen washing etc etc.
  16. Shouldn't ths post and the previous one by Susan Grant belong in the Trolls subsection?
  17. in theory you are right-good management principles can be applied in both the public and private sectors however, the experience of britain and just about every other country that has gone through privatisation programmes is that it is virtually impossible to get sufficient accountability when the paymaster is the government who can take as much tax as it wants without impunity from the tax payer. in the private sector yiou can only sell for market prices and any higher costs you sales and eventually your business. i dont think subsidies help either. im not sure whether the poles were subsidising their coal industry. i do know that coal can be extarcted without subsidy and shipped here at <£25/tonne from australia and south africa and still make money for the mining companies.
  18. you can take any political view you want, bt my take on uk coal industry is as follows: under NCB ( nationalisation) the industry was a typical inefficient government run thing. i suspect that by and large the front line ( underground) workers earned their money, but there seemed to be an awful lot of overpaid management doing very little. when it was privatised RJB brought in much more effective cost controls, but with typical coal prices of £25 /tonne to power stations it is hard to see how anyone could have made these mines profitable. todays coal prices are about 40 % higher and so the economics have changed. we probably have enough opencast coal available at profitable extraction costs, but the politics wont allow planning applications to go through in most of england. the scots seem a bit more pragamatic and there is a reasonable opencast coal industry there. i think coal has a part to play in our energy provison and the country ought to get on and find a way to get it out of the ground safely, in an environmnentally acceptable way and economically
  19. you re right. lets put it in context new housing ( 85% controlled by the large developers) is about 40% of construction activity. i reckon new housing was down c 20% yoy in the 2nd half of 2005 repairs maintenance and improvements ( RMI) is about 50%. i beleive that it held up over 2005. a lot of this is home improvements with people upgrading properties, extending etc. public sector and other commercial is about 10% . i am surprised that it fell, as i had believed that goverment funded work ( schools, hospitals etc) seemed to be going great guns. ok what are the prosects for 2006. public sector/commercial at only 10% wont make a lot of difference whether it grows or falls. new housing i think will continue to drop especially with the overhang of all the apartments etc being built and not sold. RMI i think will also drop off as people are more cautious of spending money on homes if they realise that they may no longer recoup the cost through higher house prices./values most of the heavyside building materials companies expect a tough year in 2006.after avery tough 2005
  20. dont believe the spin from the vis as the saying goes-they would say that wouldnt they the volume of transactions is down about 35% in 1 year house prices have dropped about 10% from the peak in the south and are just going negative in the north. construction is already in recsssion and if that wasnt enough energy prices will wipe out more of our manufacturing base. the economy is riding on borrowed money ( private and public sector) my advice- come back, rent and pick your time. there will be a good choice later in the year. if you do buy, dont pay top dollar unless you can afford to take a hit over the next 10 years or so happy new year the don
  21. why dont these morons either shut up or better still put out proper reasoned argumente to support their motherhood statements. i am not against fun and sport at the bears expense, but this shows that david smith (and any other of his schizophrenic personalities) is a dimwit
  22. you did the right thing with the pram -assuming that the extra £50 was affordable to you. i think when buying a house the view you need to take is teht todays prices are generally unreasonably high.. if the sale is due to actual or impending repossession then i think you have to accept that it is part of life. there but for the grace of god go any of us. the house price crash will be a good thing for most, eventually, but there will be lots of casualties. who said life is fair?
  23. apologies dr bubb- i was a bit slow there E very V ested I nterest L ies
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