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House Price Crash Forum

the don

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Everything posted by the don

  1. great photo one of my pet bug bears is the common situation in construction where there is one guy doing some work and 4 to 10 people monitoring him. i dont think that ths is unique to the public sector in my experience whenever there is a need to cut costs in industry, most companies begin by reviewing the headcount of the frontline troops. they will chop out 4 or 5 internal sales/ admin clerks/ factory labourers at a salary of mavbe £12000 p.a , whilst avoiding getting rid of 1 senior manager who is engaged in an activity trap at package of maybe £50k plus car etc etc. i dont believe in employing surplus troops, but i have learnt that you can fire a lot of middle managers without any adverse effect on the business. in many cases effciencies improve without the managers who engage in activity traps.
  2. lou g not wishing to rain on your parade but i think you are nuts is the 5% interest , interet only? what happens if irs go up to say 7% ( likely) if prices crorcet by a meer 15% 5 over 2 years you would have saved £50k- equivalent to 4 years rent/ mortgage. oh well money isnt everything
  3. right freds dead who is the guy in your avatar? looks like eugene terreblanche of the south african awb! then don
  4. absolutely spot on we had a record trade deficit of £9bn last month. when did you last hear crash gordon set out any polices to improve our export performance? fidldling while rome burns
  5. nothing wrong with your first post. i have seen no areas with 100% on average increases, but i would say that + 60% seems to be typical across the country. i believe we will see abut 35% off which will bring them back to where they would have been, allowing for inflation. if you look at the historical graphs there has been an undershoot after each correction, so bargains wil be possible for the patient and those of enduring faith
  6. even in a falling market people will be buying. in the last crash the volumes dropped by abut 30% but there was still turnover. eas have to sell houses to earn fees and will do whatever is needed. dont underestimate their powers of survival.
  7. not sure if for sale boards are a good indicator on my road there are 3 houses with boards up, but there are another half a dozen houses on eas books. another house i have been watching for over 6 months has just had the for sale board removed, but is stoll listed for sale with the agent. probably found it embarassing that after 6 months it had not gone under offer
  8. he is probably right. debt will continue to grow and with it the trade deficit etc. also, growth is being fudged because the inflation deflator is incorrect. the problem is he has only one target- the fiddled inflation target set by Brown., he is outnumbered by Browns placemen. he has no mandate to sort out the fiscal deficit, and trade deficit. that is browns job and he was voted back in last year until possibly 2006.
  9. approx 180,000 new homes are built ecah year. some will be self build and therfore not sold( perhaps10,000) the toatal transctions average about 1million p.a.
  10. the market activity is way down however, there are still some places selling. prices have not dropped much(yet) IMO they are way overpriced. eg house on lache lane, 4 bed 70's box detached. last sold end 2001 for £170k ;just come on at £350k worth about £225k IMO Loads of new 2BR flats coming on with more in pipeline. cant see who earns the money to pay these prices.
  11. i can think why companies would leave scotland wettest place on earth midges bite the 4rse off you in summer birthplace of the uks greatest ever chancellor seriously, this is yet another nail in our coffin. we are losing key busineses and skills at such a rate. we have some world class operations( finanacial services, some IT,tourism, some high tech manufacturing) i dont think this is enough to keep 60 million people living in soem of teh highest living standards on teh planet. dont have any easy answers. all i do know is that the fixation with property aint one of them
  12. will be interesting to see the levels of demand/deisre when hpi= --10%pa. over the next few years
  13. if you look at castle cements website it says that the new kiln is now operational. claims to be lower in co2 emisisons etc. could this be why i have a second neck growing.? if so where do i buy special shirts?
  14. i lived througfh the last crash and to be honest it did not feel like a crash. however, i had not bought at the peak and was not a forced seller. people, who bought say before 2001 and dont sell until say 2008 will not have noticed much apart from a loss of potential paper money. people who have bought at or near the peak and need to sell up ( divorce, death etc) will feel the crash. the wider impact will be the same as last time, a general economic downturn with rising unemployment at the time i did not realise that it was funadmentally a consequence of the housing boom of the 80's
  15. very plausible argument. i would accept the possibility of your definiton of a soft landing if the increase in prices thus far had been more gentle and was not accompanied by phenomenal increases in debt , deterioraiting public finances, trade deficits growing and the destruction of much of the real economy. under labour. you rightly state that historically stability has been misisng over the last 40 years. you conclude that there is an even chance of prices rising as falling. i see the odds are something like 100/1 on of prices falling as there is no logical basis to support the increase possibility.
  16. you remind me of tom in tom and jerry when he runs over the side of a cliff and for what seems like eternity he is defying gravity. then gravity kicks in and he crashes to earth. ouch!! thats all folks
  17. it never is black and white even in a falling marekt there are still sales. for many who buy and sell at the same time, the price differences may not be great. the 3 pressure points looming: probable further increases in interest rates from an admittedly low base fewer transactions due to dearth of ftbers, causing distress amongst EAs , surveyors who are short of work forced/ panic selling by speculators who are making poor returns and lose their nerve about the future path of prices. good houses in good areas will always sell.
  18. as a bear i see this as good news reduces possibility of ir cuts and probably brings ir increases forward. will reduce transactions further, increasing the pain on EAs etc this is a tortoise and hare story
  19. oh well how will they justify cutting interest rates now?
  20. i dont think the forum has changed much in the year ive been on here. i think the situation is evolving and there have been a lot of trolls recently. some of teh characters like monkey have gone, but there are now a good spectrum of thoughtful individuals. we seem to be in transition phase when either: - the crash wil start motoring -the soft landing will splutter along - the next bull phase kicks in i think the forum will change markedley once the next phase is clearer. this is likely to take 6-12 months. the number of members and posts surely indicate that there is much that is worth while.
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