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House Price Crash Forum

the don

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Everything posted by the don

  1. big head the market turned in the south 2 years ago. the north is now stagnating and with all areas likely to see drops in the current year, the spin merchants will have a difficult task pretending that prices are still rising. maybe they will find a hamlet on the orkneys where prices have risen this year and use that as an example of a rising market. i dont think the public is fooled any more also, with increasing job cuts, a government short of money to keep increasing public sector employment, disastrous trade figures, sky high utility bills( inc council tax) , where are the next lot of people going to come from who are stupid enough to keep the merry go round going.?
  2. we aim to buy eventually in chester. the problem is that there are only a small number of decent areas to consider. much of the city/ housing is very poor. dont understand how it ended up like this. our preferences are: christleton curzon park farndon. the city itself has a good buzzz nad we like the proximity to snowdonia lakes etc
  3. I still find it hard to swallow that so many people get fired/laid off on fridays. they then have the wekend to stew on it. much better to do it on a monday morning and then those affected can go the dole, agencies etc and start rebuilding their lives
  4. Wthout wishng to apear smug( ok bandwagon?) the collapsing sales wil be good news for many. by the time they finally sell, the australian market will have crashed and they will be able to buy a great place in Manly foR s*d all
  5. i dont understand why anyone gets wound up by gazumping or gazundering. both are symptoms of an unreal market. eg if the market was stable and prices refelcted fair value then a tranaaction wil take place when a willing buyer and a wiling seller meet. if both are happy with the deal, then barring survey problems etc the deal will go through. gazumping occurs when the buyer has accepted an offer that is below market value. someone comes along, likes the place and offers a better amount. gazundering is when someone has tabled an offer only to realise he/she is paying too much. a lower offer is tabled which is closer to the mark. all offers are subject to contract and like any deal it is not done until the paperwork is finished and the cash has changed hands( exchange of contracts). as with all markets the balance will swing from buyer to seller accordin to supply and demand. anyone not happy with this should go and live in a monastery/ nunnery
  6. the problem is that the inflation figures are "cooked". the true inflation rate in the US is higher than the official figures
  7. not wrong at all unfortunately not all people with IO mortgages have such a plan. one guy i know who had a middle manager position took a huge IO mortgage out to buy a house well beyond his otherwise means. when i alsked him why, he said that prices would grow hugely and later in life he would trade down without a mortgage. when i pointed out that if prices corrected he would have to earn a huge salary in his 60s and 70s if he wanted to keep his house. he went very quiet he was later fired for incompetence.
  8. he will drop US dollars from helicopters, as he once promised
  9. lived in s africa in early eighties and still like the place, however, botswana would be my african choice. very wealthy country with abot 1. 5 million people( mineral rich) big problem with aids, so be careful,but you could buy a good bungalow in 2001 for about £10,000 with maybe 1 acre of garden. free health care for all and free education up to university level some, of the greatest wild places left( okavango, kalahari) i also like norway.
  10. i was a tad dismayed at the headline. however, nothing has changed . the south is experiencing real price falls. the midlands is flat and the north is still rising but at a slower rate. during 06 the prospects are for the south to continue dropping 5%-10 % pa. midlands to drop 0%-5% pa. and the north to be flat. 2007 will see the trend continue. by 2008 i expect the south to be stabilised at 0%, the midlands dropping at 5% and the north droping at 10%. in some ways this data is positive because it removes some of the excuses for a stimulative interest rate drop from browns stooges on the mpc
  11. i totally agree what beats me is how anyone can believe that these are fair value. i have mentioned elswhere the developemnt of 17 executive apartments in my road on a spot previously occupied by 2 bungalows. the asking prices are £250k-£270k. IMO they shoud be asking £60k max., for £250k you can buy a nice apartment in kensington.
  12. unfortnately gordon clown has given the " independent " mpc a brief to hit an inflation taget that does not include housing costs. i remember at the end of thatchers reign that she stuck rigidly to meonetarism and used control of money supply to control inflation. it was enoch powell who correctly in the 1960s concluded that inflation was not due to greedy workers asking for big pay rises, but was government created, by allowoing money supply to increase.
  13. the graph is excellent. what i dont understand is what has prompted hbos to publish honest data about the prices falling. in their monthly data they publish " mix adjusted" prices that only they know how they are fudged, it always shows a" soft " landing. the data from which this graph is published is unfudged and is a simple average. ok so maybe fewer high value houses are selling. the pattern is so consistent however that generally the south is dropping at c 7% p.a and the midlands/ north are stagnant. when you factor in inflation this data shows the south is dropping at 10% p.a in real terms. only time before the north is also dropping in nominal terms. again, why have they let the cat out of the bag?
  14. well well huse on lache lane now advertised at £330,000. dropp of £20,000 in 2 weeks.! no mention of "reduced price" needs to drop another £100k to be vfm.at this rate it will take about 8 weeks!
  15. my anecdotal info is that house building slowed 2 years ago in the south east and began slowing in the midlands middle of last year. halebop indicates that he is from north west and if this is right it would coincide with slowdown reaching the north about now. builders will slow build programmes and try and hold prices. they will have to build/sell a certain amount of units to cover fixed overheads costs.
  16. kirsty, are you there ? come in Kirsty........ last seen swimming up the thames near westminster looking for squid
  17. this is hypothetical-who will know whether the tories would have done better than labour post 1997 all i would say is that the tories started well in 1979, blew it in the late 1980's and put us back on course in the early 90s ( post 1992 to be precise) labour also started well but have blown it big time. i suspect that labour will attempt to sort it out ,but their baggage will not allow them to be radical enough in the time remaining. finally, what is wrong with being a crook, pervert or junkie. this decription probably applies to over 50% of the population
  18. does anyone have the data over the 12months of 2005, to see how the trends have gone?
  19. whilst i am in the private scetor, i am concened about the huge increases in government spending. i dont claim to be fuly briefed on public sector pay, but on the basis of your post, manchgirl i would not claim that you are raking it in. my gut feel is that the problem lies mainly with the very high salaries paid to local government big wigs, especially many of the non jobs that get posted on here from time to time. i am also sure there is an army of well meaning adminstrators whose jobs probably arent really needed. i did read that heda tecajhers eanr £100k , wjhich i eprosbnlly felel is high. you would have to be a director of a £50m turnover private sector business to be paid that. the job insecurity and competition in such a pirvate sector job are higher than for a head teacher. the other big waste factor is the fortunes spent employing consultants to the public sector. whilst there wil be some good, my instinct says that there will be loads of waste and probably corrruption
  20. i think there are a few groups some who are earning good money and think they have job security seem happy to take on the debt, often interest only. for some they wil get through their lives without redundancy/ divorce etc and will see it through. others will be casualties a second group cant or wont pay the money and realise it is a bad time to buy and are sitting on the sidelines. another group know instinctively it is not the time ot buy, but have been worn down by the people who say prices will always stay high. they are resigned to paying stupid valuations. the market i think has turned and will continue to deteriorate as the relative sizes of these groupings changes
  21. banks in recent years only calleed in loans when it was clear there was no prospect of payments being maintained. in the last crash, they were very quick to pull the plug on mortgages and businesses. i suspect that once they see falling prices they will be quiicker to call in loans where there is a risk of negative equity after repossession.
  22. this is correct unfortunately, many people have realised that rewards dont generlaly go to those who do the work etc. a lot of people have learned to play the system and realised that you can get an easy meal ticket if you can get yourself into the right place. this is equally true of the public and private sector. it is only when the sh1t hits the fan are organisations forced to begin confronting this.
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